Greedy Goblin

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Gold from stone

I've learnt from my previous mistake so my next big investment will be more carefully planned. It will be about the blacksmithing death knights of the expansion comes out. I've started one such business with Gevlon, but since that project has reached it's goal, I won't continue that, I will simply dump the metals for cheap on that server.

The serious business will be done in the server of my main. How will it be different from the ill fated flower business? I will focus only on the low end blacksmithing materials. I found a guide of leveling blacksmithing, but to make sure, Gevlon, who have nothing else to do, dropped mining and leveled blacksmithing. I used the Allakhazam recipe list to find the cheapest items:
  • Rough sharpening stone, up to slvl 30
  • Rough grinding stone, up to slvl 65.
  • From slvl 65 coarse sharpening stone, up to slvl 75
  • Coarse grinding stone, at least 60 pieces. Will bring you around slvl 90-95.
  • Runed copper bracers, up to slvl 105
  • Rough bronze leggings, up to slvl 125
  • Create 20 Heavy sharpening stone, it will bring you to slvl 134-138
  • Continue Rough bronze leggings, up to slvl 150
  • Patterned bronze bracers, up to slvl 165
  • At this point you can start using iron and I'm no longer interested in such items.
During this leveling I used 100 copper bar, 290 bronze bar, 160 rough stone, 120 coarse stone, 60 heavy stone. Other guides says more copper, and less stone, but usually stone is the cheaper. Anyway I believe in my test and will collect lot of stone. They are usually cheap as candy.

I assigned 5000G to Glotan, my designated bankalt to stockpile copper, bronze, rough and coarse stone. If he finds really cheap iron and heavy stone, it's stockpiled too. I don't touch mithril or anything behind it. I doubt that most people would pay the current market price for it. They rather go farm. However they will most probably not running around Mulgore to chop some copper. They will buy it. If they are smart, they do it now, when copper is around 15s, tin is around 20s, rough stone is below 5s, coarse below 10s. If they are dumb, they will buy it from me for 50s. If it worked with peacebloom, it will work with copper bars.

Glotan is a miner, so he can buy ores and smelt them. Blacksmiths cannot smelt themselves, they will need bars.

If things go according to plan, the 5000G investment will turn into 10-50K G with little work. Since I'm messing only with 4 kind of items, I won't have the management hell I had with 30 different kind of herbs. I just buy them, smelt them, stockpile them, store them, and after the expansion, sell them. While it will slow my main down a little to log out every time when he is in an inn to check my business, it will worth lot of gold.

One issue must be adressed: the inscription rush and the Death Knight blacksmithing leveling is quite different. The inscribes were rushing for 350, either to create their glyphs or for prestige but mostly because they had nothing else to do. The Death Knights will rush for lvl 80, not for BS slvl 450! Some will stop to level BS at 70 to get some gear, others only at 80. Why do I expect any kind of price increase?

The price always increase when supply decrease and/or demand increase. With the new Death Knights there will be new blacksmits which is demand increase. They will not demand materials immediately there won't be crazy rush. But they will demand materials some time, so the average buy attempts/month will increase.

The materials I'm planning to stockpile are growing in low level lands. Who goes there? Farming characters and little alts. Both will decrease since the players will be rushing for lvl 80 with their main, they won't have time (or reason to) farm copper in Mulgore or play their little alt. Result: supply will decrease steeply.

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