Contrary to popular belief, I don't ignore comments. What I ignore is an opinion that the commenter pulled out of his butt or from the propaganda bulletin of his alliance. I wrote how the pilots of various alliances can be classified into the small elite of "Morlocks" and a large Eloi population who just die. Some commenters mentioned the effect of "inactives" in the scheme: since they have little kills and little losses, they get booked under Eloi, despite no one really feeds on them. Michael LeBlanc even downloaded the data set and found that if we order the people according to losses, most losses go to a small group, which leads to an opposite interpretation (few Eloi, lot of Morlocks). To resolve this, I included inactives into the scheme.
To find them, first I grouped the pilots into 5% groups according to total activity (loss + de-whored kill). This gave an exponential distribution (see the logarithmic scale on the chart), with the top 5% pilots (first dot) did 2/3 of the PvP:
The 80% of total activity of the alliance was done by approximately 15% of the pilots. The rest were defined as inactives. The limit of getting into the active group was 1.1B kill+loss/pilot/year for RvB, 3.2B for GSF and 0.8B for Brave. The actives were classified according to their ISK ratio into Morlock (60%+), Eloi (40%-) and Middle groups. The size of the groups is written on the chart as percentage of all pilots mention on kill reports (7645 for Brave, 9123 for GSF, 8171 for RvB). The results were very similar for the three alliances I had data for:
I don't know if this scheme is better or worse. I mean it's clearly more true, since it properly handles those who neither kill, nor lose significant amounts. But is it better for EVE and the mentioned alliances? The previous narrative at least had the "EVE is hard, only a small elite can prevail" glory. This one says: "most players just don't care to log in". According to this data, GSF, the largest nullsec alliance has 1400 active pilots. This also explains how can the much smaller N3 coalition keep so many systems: they have the "elite" skill of logging in. On the other hand those who care to log in are distributed pretty evenly among goods, bads and averages. So it gives a decent chance to everyone to be good, as long as he keeps logging in.
One more thing: if we compare the three charts, it's clear that Goons have the biggest ISK values, the most Morlocks and the least Eloi among their actives. So flying in Sov fleets has a positive effect on the results of a player. It makes sense since anchoring up and pressing F1 is easier than solo roaming. One of the problems with EVE is that everyone suggest the most frustrating way to newbies to learn to PvP: go lowsec and solo! It's clear that the easiest way is to find a PvP gang to join up to be lead and educated instead of just jumping into gatecamps.
To find them, first I grouped the pilots into 5% groups according to total activity (loss + de-whored kill). This gave an exponential distribution (see the logarithmic scale on the chart), with the top 5% pilots (first dot) did 2/3 of the PvP:
The 80% of total activity of the alliance was done by approximately 15% of the pilots. The rest were defined as inactives. The limit of getting into the active group was 1.1B kill+loss/pilot/year for RvB, 3.2B for GSF and 0.8B for Brave. The actives were classified according to their ISK ratio into Morlock (60%+), Eloi (40%-) and Middle groups. The size of the groups is written on the chart as percentage of all pilots mention on kill reports (7645 for Brave, 9123 for GSF, 8171 for RvB). The results were very similar for the three alliances I had data for:
I don't know if this scheme is better or worse. I mean it's clearly more true, since it properly handles those who neither kill, nor lose significant amounts. But is it better for EVE and the mentioned alliances? The previous narrative at least had the "EVE is hard, only a small elite can prevail" glory. This one says: "most players just don't care to log in". According to this data, GSF, the largest nullsec alliance has 1400 active pilots. This also explains how can the much smaller N3 coalition keep so many systems: they have the "elite" skill of logging in. On the other hand those who care to log in are distributed pretty evenly among goods, bads and averages. So it gives a decent chance to everyone to be good, as long as he keeps logging in.
One more thing: if we compare the three charts, it's clear that Goons have the biggest ISK values, the most Morlocks and the least Eloi among their actives. So flying in Sov fleets has a positive effect on the results of a player. It makes sense since anchoring up and pressing F1 is easier than solo roaming. One of the problems with EVE is that everyone suggest the most frustrating way to newbies to learn to PvP: go lowsec and solo! It's clear that the easiest way is to find a PvP gang to join up to be lead and educated instead of just jumping into gatecamps.
16 comments:
So flying in Sov fleets has a positive effect on the results of a player. It makes sense since anchoring up and pressing F1 is easier than solo roaming.
Actually, it makes sense because organized CFC fleets don't just go looking for trouble. Here's a few other things that reduce the risk/reward ratio:
1)Proper intelligence - using scouts to keep an eye on not just target systems, but also staging systems. We know what we're going to fight, and we know whether or not it's a fight we should take. (Hint: If it's not, we don't - or we change the equation.)
2)Fleet Composition - having sufficient logistics to keep things alive, well, it helps keeping things alive.
3)Support - If there's a primary combat fleet out, there's usually more assets ready to form in support if needed. It goes back to being able to change the balance of power, in (1).
Let's face it, the entire purpose of improved organizational capabilities is to be able to improve performance. If it didn't improve performance, it wouldn't be successful. And it has been - consistently, for years.
"It's clear that the easiest way is to find a PvP gang to join up to be lead and educated instead of just jumping into gatecamps."
Well yes, isnt that why the advise given to nearly every new player is go join eve uni or RvB? It is kinda stating the obvious to say that if you dont get someone to teach you to drive, you just jump in the car and head for the open road, you'll have more car accidents then if you pay a driving instructer.
I'd assume the same thing (find a teacher = learn faster with less cost) applies to literally everything in game and in life.
Contrary to popular belief, I don't ignore comments. What I ignore is an opinion that the commenter pulled out of his butt or from the propaganda bulletin of his alliance.
I don't think this is the popular belief. The popular belief, for which there is a large amount of supporting evidence within your post history, is that you ignore opinions which do not align with your thoughts.
A case in point - it has been stated to you many times over that de-whoring your data does not make it more accurate, and in fact skews the data solidly in the favour of pilots who fly DPS. Pilots who fill this role tend to do so regularly as people find niches and elements of the game which suit their play style. Whilst it is absolutely true that there would be no kills without DPS, it is also true that there would be no kills without tackle, ewar and logistics. Pilots who fly these critical roles are often primaried and die often, but on a dewhored kill list they will be seen as Eloi to you.
Lets take a look at one of your favourite wormhole groups - No Holes Barred. A doctrine they are quite famous for flying involves a large number of very expensive heavy neutralizer fit bhaalgorns. I am going to use this example because there is no way you can deride them as "lolfrig pilots" when they are flying pirate battleships with fits on them that exceed billions of isk. The bhaalgorns enable a fight which would otherwise not be able to happen, to happen. They neut off all of the cap of an enemy carrier before it can exit triage so that friendly dreads can destroy them. The damage dealt by the Bhaalgorns? 0. In your "de-whored" metric, they were worthless...what's more, their pilots are nothing but meat to the grinder in your eyes - pitiful newbs who suffer for the enjoyment of the elite Morlocks...
The same is true of every class of ship which is not a DPS ship on any battlefield within Eve. DPS is part of the equation - but your metrics make them 100% of the equation. You draw conclusions based on that information and make bold statements which claim that those who fly DPS for top damage on kill mails do so at the expense of everyone else.
It appears (rightly or not) that you are ignoring well reasoned facts such as these because they do not fit your view of the world. At best we might get an off the cuff statement about how you used the "whore" metrics for RvB and therefore the same conclusions apply everywhere. You ignore the fact that this might not be the case everywhere, and you ignore the fact that even if it is the case it actually lends more credence to your argument than the manipulated and inaccurate kill figures you use. This has nothing to do with alliance propaganda. The alliances couldn't give a damn about you. They really couldn't. It is simply evidence that you ignore that which you don't agree with even though time and time again you are shown to be wrong.
@Anonymous: another opinion without facts. The facts are: https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ab0KebpjLv4/UzAqb-s7LkI/AAAAAAAAIgM/dN-yaEIqozc/s800/equal.png
On this chart the "equal" bar means that every ship on the kill got equal share. So the neuting Bhaal, the dread, and the noob with rifter got the same. The difference isn't significant from the de-whoring data.
People suggest "go lowsec and solo" to newbies?
Are you sure they do not suggest E-Uni and RvB?
what i am missing in all those pvp-stats posts of yours ... lemming-stats.
would be really nice to have their performance in the bigger picture as well; i mean, you probably even do not have to bribe anyone to get their kb-dumps as well.
@Anonymous: "fit frigs and go get fights" is the advice, meaning the same.
@Daniel: I'll have Lemming stats after Lemmings will be at least half year old. Shorter term data naturally shows larger imbalances (someone who had a busy month shows as inactive, someone who was between jobs for a month shows up as a mad nolifer)
A couple of thoughts 1: Arrendis entire post can be summed up Bigger/better blob (or we don't fight). 2: Grinding sov/pos is awesome for your kill board never doubt that. 3: meh goons suck wandered their space for 5 hours once never saw them and we had a shit fit fleet of frigs.
actually the advice given to new players vary. Some get go to eve uni or rvb or a player corp that pvps. Others get the take 100 rifters (or other cheap frig) and go to lowsec and lose them, observing every loss and learning from it. Or something in between.
But in general learning pvp is an individual experience. Many bad pilots started out in pvp corps, where they were taught how to follow fc's orders, how to fly what told, etc. It would be good that corps allow new players to experiment on their own, while giving you the basic training in fleet. And that is more dependant on individual people in that corp than the organisation itself (except for the part where they don't yell at you if you lose something that is not approved fit).
So I guess much better advice would be find a player that is friendly towards pvp newbs, and get in his corp, learn all you can from him and your own experience.
Provi Miner
1. Yes, that's called strategy. You fight the battles you can win and you fall back when you can't. If you fight a battle you know you can't win you are simply throwing away resources. Gevlon should be able to understand this as it ties directly into opportunity cost, and is pretty much the lemming MO.
2. Good for raw KB numbers, maybe, but the few people that take KBs seriously normally look at kills, not just the bottom line. Most of the sov holding alliances care very little about the KB. The only reason we even register kills on them is to make automated SRP easier, so we care more about losses than kills.
3. That hardly surprising. Most group won't scramble a response to a frigate gang, since frigate gangs tends to scatter when you do. Nobody wants to spend all day chasing frigates around 30 jumps, so nobody will bother to form up. And on top of that you provide no threat, so there's not even a defensive reason to form up. What are a bunch of frigates going to do? Hardly going to challenge sov.
Considering I've seen you talk about responding to a threat in your space by packing up and moving out, it's quite funny to now see you chestbeating about surviving a frig roam.
@ Anonymous I think you got it wrong (or more accuratly I failed to make clear).
1: Then stratagy is not pvp if you only fight when you know you will win. B-R was not a win until a mistake was made yet it was fought.
2: Blaping frig gangs is fun
3: Pack up and leave? I never said that I said I would fight till kicked out and then fight from low.
4: I didn't want to survive it was the worst roam I have ever been on. Scatter? Scatter to where we were balls deep in red territory it was the one and onlylolz roam I went on.
@Anonymous: another opinion without facts. The facts are: https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ab0KebpjLv4/UzAqb-s7LkI/AAAAAAAAIgM/dN-yaEIqozc/s800/equal.png
On this chart the "equal" bar means that every ship on the kill got equal share. So the neuting Bhaal, the dread, and the noob with rifter got the same. The difference isn't significant from the de-whoring data.
But the logistics pilot who isn't carrying whore-drones, the guy who is doing everything he can to make those kills possible and keep the dps ships alive... he won't get an equal share. He won't get a share at all. How do your numbers address that problem?
Provi Miner:
A couple of thoughts 1: Arrendis entire post can be summed up Bigger/better blob (or we don't fight). 2: Grinding sov/pos is awesome for your kill board never doubt that. 3: meh goons suck wandered their space for 5 hours once never saw them and we had a shit fit fleet of frigs.
1)For organized CFC fleets? Yes. For a frigate or T1 cruiser roam? Not so much. But as a general rule, yes. A loss can be a good, fun fight - I won't deny that, I wouldn't even consider trying. Hell, it's something I've openly stated in the past. But when there are actual objectives to complete, a loss is failure. The Coalition sends out fleets on Strategic Operations because we want to succeed. So we do the work necessary to at least attempt to ensure being successful.
You wouldn't complain about a group taking such precautions in other endeavors - a raid group in WoW, for example, just running into Molten Core in vanilla with new level-cap characters equipped with grey items. That'd be foolish. But in EVE, somehow attempting to use all the tools at our disposal to perform as well as we can is bad. Why is that?
2)Yeah, the odds are pretty good an IHUB won't do much damage, but man, does its ISK look nice on a killboard, eh?
3)Which frigate gang, what night, in which regions? Really, on any given night, there's at least 6 frigate gangs being reported on the intel channels across CFC space. If we scramble harpies to fight them, they melt away. Why bother blueballing ourselves when we can blueball them?
If you're looking for a fight - an actual, just-for-fun fight, and not 'hey, let's gank some ratters and laugh about it'*, get a hold of someone in-game, see about actually setting it up. It can't hurt your chances of getting one, right?
* - let's face it, we all do that. We take interceptors, or assault frigs out, and we go roaming around looking for targets of opportunity to murder and laugh at on the way home. Sometimes, your interceptor gang runs into a typhoon who knows how to fight, who's fitted up to handle frigates and when he escapes, is willing to come back for round two. But that's a rarity. If you want fights, ask for them. It might even work.
Provi Miner -
Hell, shoot me an eve-mail in-game, and I'll forward it off to our Skirmish Commander group.
It's not like I'm not using my character name here.
Provi Miner
1. I'd say that's the exception, not the rule. It's not a good idea to consistently gamble your empire for "gudfites", since you'll inevitably lose at some point and lose everything. That's not to say that fights when everything can be lost don't come along, but you avoid them where you can and fight the better odds.
2. Sure it is, if you can catch them.
3. I'll dig out the quote, but I'm certain it had nothing to do with fighting in it.
4. While that may have been the case, frigate gangs often scatter, so you won't invite a fight. If you want to be sure of a fight, take a crusier gang. They have a much harder time scrambling at the first sign of an enemy so they often actually stick around to fight. If you are in a frigate of any type or a T3, it's assumed you are baiting to blueball or looking for only scraps.
Gevlon, I like that you are digging deeper in the numbers. What I would advise, as a scientist, is that you do not rush to interpretation. In the past you've conjured up a few numbers, drew an erroneous conclusion from them and then stuck fiercely to your statement because "that's what the numbers are saying!"... ignoring the fact that the numbers were not painting the whole picture.
The image you are getting of RvB is not what you thought was reality a few weeks ago. So keep an open mind.
And goons only have 1400 active pilots? Really? Do you have those numbers for the CFC as a whole?
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