Monday, February 17, 2014

This is not that speech

Short POCO update: the RvB pets were whipped back to the war. I have to admit our failure that we reinforced them after RvB left, and not before the 2 weeks is up. This way we gave 48 hours for RvB to "have fun", before Mynnna ordered them back to rep GSF structures. This won't happen again. RvB will be continuously kept in war with reinforced POCOs until they are simply destroyed.


The Mittani had his "this is not that speech" speech, declaring a hellcamp on the Nulli Secunda and allies staging system with the goal of total destruction of them.

Will it work? We don't know. Can it work? Definitely can. Goons have won every single war in the previous years. Why? Because they are "carebears" while their enemies are honestly believing in the "pure PvP" nonsense. You can't PvP with "morale", you need ships for that. It's considered normal for members donating their time for boring PvP ops (like structure shoots, hellcamps), but donating their ISK (= time spent on industry/PvE) is not, because the first is "being PvP-er" while the second assumes carebearing.

In the meantime Darwins Lemmings, a newly formed, but very rapidly growing alliance is beating Goons and pets left and right. Why? Because we are openly "carebear" backed. The bills are paid by me, coming from highsec trading income, the lost ships are replaced by their pilots, using their highsec alt income.

Nulli and co are dependent on their space to have ships. Their renters and moons are making the money for their ship replacement program. If their enemies take the Sov, they have nothing left. We on the other hand cannot theoretically be defeated. Even if we lose more ships than our enemies (we don't), they cannot interfere with replacing them. They can't touch our highsec moneymaking pilots.

I'm completely sure that the current nullsec alliances are unable to stop Goons on the long run. They can win this week or the next. They can welp Goon capital fleets. But at the end they will lose because they can't replace losses. Goons can, because they have the money endlessly coming in from the swarm of Deklein ratters. They can't keep their coalition together if the problems come. Just like PL betrayed them after their assets were in the danger of being locked, they will lose their allies one by one. Goons can't lose their pets as they are financially dependent on Goon ISK.

The future nullsec alliance that will defeat the CFC is "carebear"-based. Their own, loyal members (not renters who move to the cheapest/safest offer) will farm their ISK ratting in their Sov, or if that's threatened, in Empire on alts and keep the alliance in ships.

If we assume 300 CFC hellcamping constantly for a week, instead of making ISK with 100M/hour rate, that's 5T in opportunity cost. Nulli would be better off to just spend equal time on highsec alts and replace the locked assets. But they can't, because they are "PvP"-ers.

This is not a speech about CFC, or the defeat of Nulli. It's about the defeat of the "PvP-er" idea in Sov-null, and the rise of the carebear-based alliances.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

Since you guys didn't show up tonight, is it still bad news for the beefolk? I know, I know, opportunity costs, but we have dual monitors. I can be doing industry one character and repairing a POCO free from your no-show lemmings.

Gevlon said...

Did you form up for nothing? Oh dear. Must have been terrible!

Anonymous said...

"Did you form up for nothing? Oh dear. Must have been terrible!"

Took less time to rep them than to reinforce them. Not sure how long marmite will be willing to grind structure (lemmings buggered off long before sobaseki got finished)

Anonymous said...

You make 2 false assumptions in the beginning. First, goons are not a carebear alliance. They do peaceful activities like ratting and mining, but they also do pvp. A carebear doesn't do that. Second, nobody ever seriously claimed goons are pure pvpers. In fact, they actively support peaceful activities mentioned above. There is also the notion of you beating them. Look at the influence map and think about it some more.

Provi Miner said...

I am curios as to why RvB keeps leaving teh war, at some point they have to realize that you have no plans to reinforce their poco's and if they join with the good poco shoot they can pick up even moor moons. Eve to me is about exploring opportunity cost. and this seems like a perfect opportunity to gain stuff easy.

Anonymous said...

Not only did we form up, not only were the poco repaired, but our hunting fleet (gasp, we had more than one fleet!?!?) scourged Marmite station and gate camps left and right.

There is an opportunity cost for Marmite being at war with RvB, and sooner or later they will catch on ;)

LR

Arrendis said...

Gevlon:

Once again, I really don't think you have much grasp on the finer points of things.

First, you talk about how Goons are dependent on their space for money. To some extent, yes, the space is a revenue stream. But the SRP fund is top-down, not bottom-up. That means the SRP fund is coming from things like renters, moon goo sales, high-sec market manipulation, etc, not ratting taxes. Not really.

Second, you seem to think that the people hellcamping 0-W778 aren't making money. We're there, we're camping it, and we're simultaneously doing our normal money-making activities on our money-making alts (because really, who ties up a combat character with ratting/mining/PI/reactions/market manip/etc?), as well as playing Civ 5 w/people in fleet, or any number of other activities we can easily accomplish while we sit mostly idle in space, waiting for N3 to in any way warrant our attention.

This is especially true given the dominix fleets. But hey, drone assist isn't broken, right? Isn't that what your boys were saying during Fountain last summer?

So really, that 5T (and it'd be closer to 12T, considering we've had around 750 of us there, on average) isn't being lost at all.

Gevlon said...

@Arrendis: you make the wrong assumption that everyone (like you or me) have stable of accounts and alts. Most people, and most Goons do not. They have one account, and on that one significantly trained pilot. Ask yourself, why do Goons come to highsec when they are especially told not to? Because they have no other pilot for the job.

@Anonymous: and where are the kills from that "scourging"

@Provi Miner: I don't think the directors of RvB give a damn about RvB. Since they have POCO money coming in, they got greedy. They made a deal with Goons and can't care less if their line members quit.

Lucas Kell said...

@Gevlon
"Because they are "carebears" while their enemies are honestly believing in the "pure PvP" nonsense"
Wrong. Firstly you misunderstand the word carebear, secondly you assume Nulli don't do the same.

"Darwins Lemmings, a newly formed, but very rapidly growing alliance is beating Goons and pets left and right."
Wrong. You are killing a few people in high sec. If that was "beating goons" they would have been defeated a LONG time ago.

"Even if we lose more ships than our enemies (we don't), they cannot interfere with replacing them"
Wrong. I've already seen pilots in lemmings struggling to replace ships. Also, unlike null groups you only have the one revenue stream. Sure, you can always pay for the war, but its on the individual to replace ships as you don't offer SRP. Eventually people will get fed up with throwing their own isk down a drain for your agenda.

"Goons can't lose their pets as they are financially dependent on Goon ISK."
Wrong. Most of the "pets" are fully capable and self sufficient alliances. Maybe do some research before believing TEST propaganda at face value and making a fool of yourself?

"you make the wrong assumption that everyone (like you or me) have stable of accounts and alts. Most people, and most Goons do not. They have one account, and on that one significantly trained pilot."
Wrong. You've literally assumed every ounce of this. It's a complete guess on your part, and it's wrong.

"I don't think the directors of RvB give a damn about RvB. Since they have POCO money coming in, they got greedy. They made a deal with Goons and can't care less if their line members quit."
Dotlan shows an increase in members for both red and blue. Could it be that a group specifically based around PvP likes more targets in high sec? Oh no, can;t be that. come on, lets see you make up another excuse for why RvB is growing. I'll even help. Goons must have their alts in there to better control their pet!

If all you are going to do is bang on down the same path, and make up seemingly everything, you seriously need to get better at making up propaganda.

Gevlon said...

@Lucas: I don't assume Nulli don't do the same. Please find systems with significant NPC kills in Nulli sov (not rented)

The "defeated long time ago" is actually an interesting thing, will investigate.

The pets are "financially independent" by having their own moons. They have those moons as long The Mittani says so.

http://evemaps.dotlan.net/alliance/RvB_-_RED_Federation/stats Sept 13: 3500. Now: 3700.
http://evemaps.dotlan.net/alliance/RvB_-_BLUE_Republic/stats
Sept 13: 3150. Now: 3400.

That's indeed a stunning increase.

Lucas Kell said...

"I don't assume Nulli don't do the same. Please find systems with significant NPC kills in Nulli sov (not rented)"

Honestly, I can't be bothered to dig through maps to find you stats which mean absolutely nothing, since someone owning the space and the number of rats killed there do not correlate directly. Some people rat in NPC space, some in space belonging to other alliances (like Deklein being pretty much a CFC FFA). Some people even run incursion groups. For you to be able to make a statement without it being an assumption, you'd need actual financial data to back up your claim.

"The pets are "financially independent" by having their own moons. They have those moons as long The Mittani says so."
Yes, because we only have moons because Mittens says so, and the only income we have is from those gifted moons. Seriously, is this what TEST told you? No wonder you guys lost the war.

"That's indeed a stunning increase."
Doesn't matter if it's stunning or not. It clearly shows that RvB haven't been leaving in droves since joining in the war against lemmings, so all of that "RvB will quit because their line members hate being at war" is clearly total and utter bull. It's just more badly thought out propaganda backed up by no facts.

A concerned Minmatar said...

Have you considered that your ideal nullsec alliance organization is very similar to the current status of nullsec powers on the chinese server, Serenity? Any comment on the chinese situation?

Gevlon said...

I have zero knowledge on the Chinese server situation.

Anonymous said...

Currently training up a pvp alt for the Lemmings that should be somewhat useful in a week or two.

I assume Talwars and Blackbids are very much in?

- Draco

Gevlon said...

Indeed. ECM is always welcomed. As soon as you have 3M SP, join (we had way too many Goon alts with no SP, hence the rule)

Lucas Kell said...

Gevlon
"As soon as you have 3M SP, join (we had way too many Goon alts with no SP, hence the rule)"
You should really just scrap this rule if you just want anyone. 3M SP is nothing. I usually roll any spy character to 10M+ as a matter of course. Not to mention that you're already infiltrated. It's not like anything the Lemmings say isn't already a matter of public record.

Druur Monakh said...

"instead of making ISK with 100M/hour rate, that's 5T in opportunity cost."

This is where you fail. There are people who give a damn about opportunity ISK. Who understand that this is just a game. Who log on for the single purpose of making somebody else's space pixels explode.

Unlike RL economies, EVE is ultimately not a closed system.

Arrendis said...

Gevlon:

"you make the wrong assumption that everyone (like you or me) have stable of accounts and alts. Most people, and most Goons do not. They have one account, and on that one significantly trained pilot. Ask yourself, why do Goons come to highsec when they are especially told not to? Because they have no other pilot for the job."

Just to make the point, I'm part of the CFC, and arguably know more guys in CONDI than in my own alliance at this point. I'm not making an assumption here: you're wrong. Most goons have multiple, stable accounts. The guys coming to high-sec might not, but your kill totals don't come close to representing even a significant minority of CONDI's pilots.

Why do they keep coming to highsec even if they're told not to? Because they're bad. Most of the people in the CFC - like most of the players not in the CFC - are terrible at this game, and worse at following orders.

Anonymous said...

You know, maybe RvB would not be still in this war if you hadn't worked so hard to make it personal? Do you want them to protect goons poco or something? This is a diplomatic failure on your part imo..

Gevlon said...

@Anonymous: Totally. RvB attacked us when we had 50 members because I'm a bad diplomat.

@Arrendis: in 2013 GSF lost 11.62T worth of ships. That's 970B/month on average. In January Lemmings killed 5.6B, Marmites killed 24.1B, so together we are responsible for 3.1% of GSF total losses. Now, we aren't the only one killing Goons in highsec, and many Goons coming to highsec aren't killed. So claiming that only an irrelevant minority of GSF is coming to highsec isn't true.

Lucas Kell said...

@Gevlon
"Totally. RvB attacked us when we had 50 members because I'm a bad diplomat."
Uh no, they attacked because they had a treaty to do so, which you didn't bother looking at. but then your group insulted them, hurled personal attacks at them and generally acted like a bunch of idiots. Now you stand no chance of coming to a diplomatic solution with them. I'm not saying they would have agreed to anything, but you have next to zero chance of them engaging you in diplomatic discussion now.

"So claiming that only an irrelevant minority of GSF is coming to highsec isn't true."
Well, it is true. Hate to tell you this (again) mate, but bodged statistics don't make assumed conclusions correct. Most goons, in fact most nullsec players rarely see high sec on their mains. What these statistics really highlight is that stupid people manage to lose more personal wealth per capita than an alliance loses in war, which pretty much anyone could tell you. The problem is you like headline statistics, which you can only really get from taking a couple of statistics then averaging, stretching and manipulating until they look exciting so you can say "look at this hilarious statistics!". The only thing that's hilarious about them is that you believe your own hurf.

I really don't understand why you continuously try to convince everyone otherwise. What are you trying to accomplish by telling us things we know to be incorrect? How does it in any way help your cause?

Babar said...

Well, it's not unreasonable to say that lack of tact is what is keeping RvB in the fight. You're basically doing your best to mock them, and I wouldn't be surprised if line-members show up just to spite you. At least you're making it very easy for the RvB leadership to rally people against you.

Guerdon Malpheron said...

Well that’s unfortunate for the Lemmings. On a strategic level it makes sense to just assume that RvB is going to be involved indefinitely. It would be foolish to assume or believe that their involvement is dependent on your diplomacy. The Pact RvB created with CFC was done long before the inception of the Lemming’s war on Goons in High Sec and been stated created for the purpose of creating tears. Combine this with the fact that RvB gains nothing from this exchange. Goons, to the best of my knowledge, do not support RvB endeavors. RvB POCOs are not at risk. Lemmings don’t give gud fights. I don’t think it would be illogical to deduce that no matter of diplomacy will affect this situation. You are funding this war because you have irreconcilable differences with the Goons and the members of the Lemmings are there either because they agree with you or just along for the ride. The Goon behemoth has no intent in ever surrendering any assets. RvB is here because they want to be. None of those things are likely to change.

@Lucas
“You should really just scrap this rule if you just want anyone. 3M SP is nothing. I usually roll any spy character to 10M+ as a matter of course. Not to mention that you're already infiltrated. It's not like anything the Lemmings say isn't already a matter of public record.”
Perhaps they’re just trying to deter the number of troll Goon alts that will try to join. As you’ve said, with an open enrollment policy you aren’t going to keep spies out. Given that Gelvon has been so transparent with this endeavor I doubt there’s intent to actively attempts to keep any and all spies out, just reduce them when possible and convenient. However, if a Goon feels like making am alt to join Lemmings to troll out of boredom leveling skills up to 3M might be a deterrent.

Gevlon said...

@Lucas: let me explain it to you. You - like I did when I was younger - "know" things. I mean, you look around and say "this must be this way, it can't be any other way". You are logically right. There is absolutely no reason for a Goon to go highsec. There is absolutely no connection between Goons dying in highsec (who aren't even there) and the power of GSF. I cannot win. You are honestly believing it and trying to explain.

Your fundamental failure is that you believe that the average Goon is anything like you. He is not. He is closer to the red crosses he shoots for ISK. He - just like most social people - operate in a logical level so low that you can't imagine or empathize with. I suggest to look up the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asch_experiment and the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milgram_experiment. It doesn't explain it to you, but might make you able to accept that these people are totally irrational, therefore respond to stimulus you wouldn't. Or, if it's easier, just think about a dog that attacks a truck. Does it makes any sense? Would you do it if you were a dog? But they still do, despite it literally kills them.

I can't ask you to blindly believe me. However I ask you to just watch what will happen.

Anonymous said...

"It would be foolish to assume or believe that their involvement is dependent on your diplomacy. "

I can state as a fact that Gevlon 's "anti - diplomacy" has been a significant factor. At this point I am unable to determine if this is a failure on his part, or if in fact he actually wants RvB involved ...

LR

Lucas Kell said...

@Guerdon Malpheron
"However, if a Goon feels like making am alt to join Lemmings to troll out of boredom leveling skills up to 3M might be a deterrent."
We have a surprising amount of prebuilt alts ready to go and 3M is nothing. If goons want to troll they can. It's not even difficult to join lemmings as a corp, let alone as an individual. You're more likely to deter low SP players that would like to sign up than you are to deter goons.

It is just the beginning though. They'll start finding other things they don't like so the recruitment bar will go up and up until they get to the stage that Marmite is at, where they boot people for losses. This whole "the world can join the war!" thing is already not the case. I'll certainly be interested to see how quickly the growth goes once they get beyond the initial growth spurt, and I'll certainly be interest in seeing what happens to the current membership if they keep ducking out on all the fights.

Lucas Kell said...

@Gevlon
"let me explain it to you. You - like I did when I was younger - "know" things. "
No, I'm nothing like that at all. The reason you "know" things when you are younger is because you make a lot of assumptions to make up for lack of experience. I however, have experience. I have more than 10 years experience in statistical analysis alone, let alone the 9 years of EVE experience. I am able to set aside personal feelings and extrapolate realistic results from the data presented. You guys are not the first wardec goons have had, your are certainly not the most skilled pilots that have wardecced, and you are by far not the richest. What leads you to believe that you will succeed in even being a blip on their radar where others have failed?

"Your fundamental failure is that you believe that the average Goon is anything like you."
Not at all, in fact not much could be further from the truth. You've displayed in countless posts that you are unable to see things from the perspective of another person, and you are filled with so much disdain for anyone not like you that it clouds your judgement further. You have this idea that goons are some random undereducated carebears hiding behind a wall of isk, possibly because you find that easier to hate as it fits into your M&S->Rational pyramid. People are more complex than that, and I can assure you the majority of goons are smarter than you are.

The biggest problem you are going to encounter (and in fact have already encountered) is precisely that too. You are so unable to look beyond your hatred, to look beyond the insults you want to hurl down, that you can't assess your opponent. The CFC have won a lot of wars, which you well know, and we've spun propaganda every time, but at no point did we underestimate the opponents we face. You're so busy celebrating every "jackpod" that you'll never make any realistic progress. You're so busy trying manipulate the figures to make you feel like you're well ahead that you can't see your own failings. And that is not a recipe for success.

If you really wanted to make some impact, you'd take a good look at the situation, formulate realistic long term strategies to achieve your goals. It's certainly not impossible for a small group to due a staggering amount of damage to a larger group, it just can't be done effortlessly. You're not a good leader, and you're not a winning strategist, you said this yourself, and that's fine. So hire someone who is good at those things. Hire someone with a proven track record. You're no good at diplomacy, again hire someone that is. If your strength is making income and managing finance, then you focus on that, and teach others to bring in alliance income. I'd honestly love to see another group rise from nothing and go shoulder to shoulder with the larger alliances, it's just not going to happen as a Marmite training corp.

Unless of course all you are looking for is to buff KB numbers so you can look at zkb and pat yourself on the back. If that's the case, carry on as is.

Provi Miner said...

@ Lucas, just curious who does the treaty benefit? I have seen RVB dying for goon moons I don't see goons dying for RVB moons. A treaty is supposed to work for both parties. I stand by my earlier statement RVB saw and oppotunity and took it without looking at potential long terms opportunities or costs. They jumped in with both eyes closes and are really starting to smell a rotten fish.

Gevlon said...

@Lucas: how come that you never come up with data, just with "experience"?
How come that one day "there are lot of stupid goons going highsec" and the other "they are smarter than you"?

Do you have a comprehensive theory about GSF-CFC?

@Anonymous: I simply don't see any point in trying to be diplomatic with RvB. They attacked us once, so they can do it again. The only way to be safe from them is making them UNABLE to do so. Asking them nicely can keep them away as long as they WANT to be away.

Lucas Kell said...

@Provi Miner
"just curious who does the treaty benefit? I have seen RVB dying for goon moons I don't see goons dying for RVB moons."
It benefits both sides. If RvB pocos are attacked and they need and assist goons will be on board, but more importantly, during setup both goons and RvB focused on forming a monopoly rather than endlessly attacking each others structures.

If RvB felt the treaty wasn't required, they could easily break the treaty. It's not like treaties can't be cancelled. I wouldn't be so quick to assume RvB are simply some dumb party tricked into signing a treaty. They are very capable of making their own decisions and that they have done.

@Gevlon
"how come that you never come up with data, just with "experience"?"
Well mainly because I can't be bothered to dig through pages and pages of data to present to you on your own blog what is obvious to most people. What data is it specifically you are after though? Maybe I can point you in the right direction. Obviously actual participation stats and inside information I can't/won't provide.

"How come that one day "there are lot of stupid goons going highsec" and the other "they are smarter than you"?"
There are over 12000 goons. It's easily possible for most of them to be smarter than you and still many dumb ones to get ganked in high sec.

"Do you have a comprehensive theory about GSF-CFC?"
I don't follow. A theory about what element of GSF-CFC?

Anonymous said...

"how come that you never come up with data, just with "experience"?"

Not everything can be presented by raw data. And things that can, are often inaccessible. For example - your assumption that goons don't have alts can never be backed by data unless you work at ccp. We can only trust people who live with goons, therefore Lucas. And no, Dotlan and KB are not good sources of data. Only ccp is.

"How come that one day "there are lot of stupid goons going highsec" and the other "they are smarter than you"?"

He didn't say all goons are smart, yet you are implying so. Generalization is a sign of a weak argument.

"Do you have a comprehensive theory about GSF-CFC?"

CFC publicly states what they are and what they plan to do. What more is there to it?

GWI said...

Ever consider offering picks for rvb? Doesn't sound like you want them. Offering rvb the spoils might swing them your way, and make this much faster.

Also, want a great plan? Next time CFC wants burn jita, just borrow 2k people and leave them logged in all day

Would literally ruin burn jita without firing a shot

Anonymous said...

As an RvB line member I can't say I particularly like goons.

But then again, marmites have previously decced my hisec corp for no reason at all. So I certainly don't see any drawbacks to having them be valid targets on more favourable terms than they usually prefer. On the contrary, it provides a nice variation.

I doubt you can present significant enough disincentives for most of the RvB population to keep them out. But at least by not antagonizing people you wouldn't be adding reasons to stay in.

Anonymous said...

but there is 1200 of goons and allies in hellcamp and not 300, and there were still a hundred odd folks repping pocos last night and it was not even anything mainstream or heavily advertised. i reckon it was still more than the new rulers of hisec could muster with their allies when they vandalized the said pocos.

Obben said...

I love this. This is what makes EVE different from other mmos. Good luck in you mission and I hope that it will be a long and interesting war.

Also Elitism is not racism. ;)

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