Greedy Goblin

Monday, July 18, 2016

The source of financial conspiracy theories

If you spend any time reading comments (you shouldn't), you surely know about dark forces conspiring for world domination. They want to mind control you with chemical agents spread from airplanes (since their electromagnetic devices can be defeated by wearing tin foil hat), they are hiding UFOs and invented lies like global warming to blind us from the hidden truth. In the financial field, "obviously" the Jews are conspiring to gain world domination trough controlling the money.

You probably wondered how could seeming intelligent (or at least not drooling retard) people believe in these nonsense statements. I think I stumbled upon the solution, thanks to some less than intelligent people on the BDO forums. One created a thread named How to lose 10M a day with this simple method, obviously referring to my "Making 10M+ per day in less than half an hour clicking with workers" thread which got my blog pretty high traffic. He wrote: "Post a random guide about your most profitable method and watch your income hit the floor by millions of brainless players flooding to it after just a few days." Another similar person added "I really don't get why people would ruin their own passive income by putting their methods in minute detail in a guide".

Now my guide isn't exactly rocket science. It's a simple guide for the most basic industrial source, one that is practiced by newbie quests in Velia. Yet these people are upset that this "secret knowledge" got out. Why? Because probably they were using it and now fear the competition. The situation when vast majority of the players got their income from mindless grinding served them well. They realized these people weren't smart enough to figure even this simple method out by themselves. Now that I made a guide, they can just follow it and get income!

From the point of view of the grinder, the worker empire was "hidden knowledge" of "those in the know" and he was locked away from them. Of course he is wrong, the only thing locked it away from him is his lack of thinking. But it doesn't change his perception. The attempt of our posters to keep the situation as is makes it worse, reinforcing his belief about the knowledge being secret.

While real world economics are more complicated than a video game, it's still very well documented. There is formal education for economics. Yet for those who didn't study it, the economy remains hidden knowledge. When they encounter a particular situation and ask questions the answers are purposefully confusing or flat out "bank/business secrecy". The reason is the same: "those in the know" don't want the uneducated masses to stop being uneducated masses. The uneducated masses don't see themselves uneducated, they believe that some secret knowledge exist that you can only learn from "those in the know". The objective truth that the knowledge is widely available in economy books isn't helping them, because they can't be arsed to read a full book and don't even think they should (slackers and morons). They asked a specific question and got bullshit as answer.

The conspiracy theories serve both groups: the dumb ones can keep believing that their dumbness and poverty is not their fault but the result of an evil conspiracy, the rich ones can keep selling useless papers to the dumb ones. This is why no solution arrived: anyone trying what I'm doing would get what I'm getting: hate. "Those in the know" hate me for giving out the "big secrets", the morons and slackers hate me for pointing out the fact that money was always front of their noses, but they were too dumb to grab it.

But there are those who are just uninformed. I will teach them. There are many: the OP here asked if it's possible to make 100M/week (I make 180) and the top answer mentions grinding for 8-10 hour sessions, the second top is suggest to grind 3 hours a day for whole week for 5M/hour. There is much darkness to light up here.


Provi Miner said...

I get the same thing, I mention my job as an accountant and they immediately say "Oh math is hard" or "accounting is hard" I tell them accounting is easy and requires no "real" math generally (tax's always screw things up). Accounting is this simple draw a line down a sheet of paper what ever is on side has to = what is on the other. of course rules make this harder than that but when you strip away all the junk that's what you are left with.

Empz said...

I dont make 180M/week. The most amount of silver i had at once was <50. Most of the time my bankroll is below 5M. But i dont see the benefit in bdo of having a huge bankroll, beside from spending it for gear upgrades.
As far as i see, the rule Money-makes-money, doesn't apply in bdo. Do i miss something here?
Don't get me wrong, i see, if you get money faster (and spend it), you gear up faster. But because of the high taxes i follow the guideline don't sell anything that you may need to buy later.

Riful said...

we live in a world of specialisation. yes, if you are somewhat intelligent you can probably go around and learn the basics to almost everything. that's why i'm not managing the fond i invest in but do something else to earn my money. i will never go and build my own house from scratch myself because not only of knowledge but also experience.
i am doing my job in a profession i'm somewhat good at and i expect others to do the same (especially if i hire them) and not to try and screw me over with some additional layer of 'hidden knowledge'. this doesn't even have to be skills, it could just be insider information or price agreements. libor scandal, or goldman sachs betting against the securities they sold their clients.
please differentiate a bit more between video games and outside live.

Gevlon said...

@Riful: while you don't build your house, you are aware that housebuilding is a skill that you COULD learn if you wanted to. There is no "hidden knowledge" about the homebuilding, just knowledge you didn't bother to learn.

So why do you believe that bankers have more insider information or price agreements than homebuilders?

Also, who forced the people to give money to the bankers out of blind trust? No one put a gun to your head to buy papers you don't understand.

Riful said...

> So why do you believe that bankers have more insider information or price agreements than homebuilders?
because all the scandals kinda prove they do?
no economics book is going to help you to either profit or protect you against something like that.
the mentioned goldman sachs is like buying a house where an architect purposefully designed the statics in a way that the roof will fall on your head.
with a few years of study and full plan-disclosure of every house you go in ever, and the plans being truthful (you cannot really count on it without building it and the materials yourself), you might avoid having a roof fall on your head.
you have to somewhat trust that the meal you eat isn't poisoned or from bad ingredients.

it's exactly the same with economics. you need some way to leverage trust and reputation and do some very basic verification (like, 'does this interest calculation make sense or do i have to pay more on portfolio maintenance than i make on revenue?').
your ingame examples are on that level. the real world is a tiny little bit more complicated. you can not do everything yourself. without leveraging specialists and trusting their expertise (that you pay for of course), you could probably not even live in an indian tribe in the rain forest.

Anonymous said...

Still, one question remains unanswered. While "hard" conspiracy theories make no sense, why there's no room for "soft" conspiracy theories?

I don't see the following statement disproved: "if the stupid ones get educated, the method will lose effectiveness because of competition". Isn't it personally and asocially effective to keep masses stupid? Sure, if they just stand from their couches (by reading some guide), they can stop being abysmally stupid, but at least if a "capitalistic pig" doesn't do anything to make it happen, the chances of this outcome are reduced.

Don't you indeed ruin income of those "pigs" by posting such guides? I assume it possible that you even damage your own income, but that's both negligible and irrelevant. Negligible because your income is mostly based by more advanced ideas than the one revealed in your guide, irrelevant because your goals are not asocial (get rich, to hell with everyone else) but rational (bringing some light to some darkness).

Personally I don't see it "unfair" that a person who's more educated and smart earns more than those less educated, but sometimes I wonder, what if every single player in some MMO becomes 100% (or "Gevlon level") "market aware", will it still be possible to earn money on such a market?

Gevlon said...

@Riful: countless buildings collapsed because materials were stolen from them or they were not properly maintained.
That doesn't mean there is a builder conspiration. It means there are idiots and criminals among builders.

Riful said...

Ok. I conceede the point that it doesn't have to be a conspiracy that kills you. what i argue against is that you might be able to protect yourself against it -> the roof falling on your head is not your fault. it doesn't make you or anybody else a moron and slacker to get a roof of their head.
(ofc disregarding the obvious shady buildings that are already partially collapsed and are creaking in the wind)

Anonymous said...

From what I have studied there is no one agreement on economics, and the economics taught in schools in merely the prevailing opinion at the time. Austrian free market economics is the source of many of the conspiracy about central banks and money system, and is opposed to the popular economic theory taught currently. Is it a conspiracy, do they have a point or is it hoax? I'm not informed enough to know, but it certainly seems to have more substance than most internet theory about chem trails etc.

Anonymous said...

@Provi Miner
>they immediately say "Oh math is hard"
You're assuming everyone is of equal intelligence simply because they stand on two legs.
Gevlon has realised this, too. Of course you'll get hate for giving such a blatant dismissal of "it's easy," but then why are you spending time explaining concepts to people who literally can't understand them in the first place? Just hit their butt!

Why wouldn't you do a work once to set up a passive income stream? It's like writing for a magazine vs writing a book. Besides, it sure would suck if you only have 5M, missing the chance to get something for 10M, then having to grind the 30M it will cost in the future. And time spent grinding is time not spent progressing, so while you may have better gear, you ultimately end up falling behind.

@first Anonymous
>what if every single player in some MMO becomes 100% (or "Gevlon level")
G-man's had your back since 2009.

Anonymous said...

Here's a longer post from a couple months before that, that ties in with today.
And a short one that explains how having more competition is actually a good thing. "One more intelligent person creates bigger market by his work than you lose by his competition."

Anonymous said...

There is a bit of a difference to real world economics: Even highly decorated analysts are so frequently and completely wrong, they should be called gamblers instead. Unlike BDO or WoW, we cannot observe the system very well, nor do we have guaranteed base-values such as vendor prices and completely predictable AH-fees.

You can predict your income from many BDO activities to the penny, infinitely into the future (up to patch day). Even the best analyst at the best bank cannot predict what the stock market is going to do tomorrow, much less next year.