Greedy Goblin

Monday, June 16, 2014

Small gang PvP: the worst enemy of CFC

Sometimes the best statistics is the most obvious, yet it's not found for long. Months after months I gathered the kill data of the alliances I supported, instead of collecting the loss data of the enemy. After all, I don't care who else is killed by Marmite, but I very much care who else is killing the evil of New Eden. But not anymore. From now on, the monthly statistics will use the CFC loss data. I processed the May losses (produced by Hanura H'arasch). 52893 API verified kills were processed. The kill values are distributed among the killers according to their damage. At first, let's have a look on the list of CFC losses:
10 - Aegis Requiem
2 - Blohm and Voss Shipyards Alliance
226 - Circle-Of-Two
29 - Executive Outcomes
154 - Fatal Ascension
346 - Fidelas Constans
97 - Gentlemen's Agreement
82 - Get Off My Lawn
963 - Goonswarm Federation
321 - Greater Western Co-Prosperity Sphere
48 - I Whip My Slaves Back and Forth
38 - Initiative Mercenaries
38 - Li3 Federation
243 - RAZOR Alliance
122 - RvB - BLUE Republic
96 - RvB - RED Federation
173 - SpaceMonkey's Alliance
142 - Tactical Narcotics Team
84 - The Initiative.
82 - The Bastion
3295 Billion ISK Total CFC losses That's 30% of B-R, not bad from a non-war month.

Obviously, most of the damage was done by enemy coalitions. Obviously!
Oops! Mere 660B, despite of Daras. Sure, that's not a joke, but GGR took almost half of it! Let's look at the largest coalition-based killers (using the data of Marlona Sky) and the kills with 500M+ contribution from them:
205 - Pandemic Legion
123 - Northern Coalition.
51 - Nulli Secunda
50 - Legion of xXDEATHXx
21 - Brave Collective
18 - The Unthinkables
17 - Brothers of Tangra
17 - Infinity Space.
15 - The Kadeshi
11 - Fraternity.
10 - Northern Associates.
10 - Test Alliance Please Ignore
663M, 581M, 1304M, 2635M, 585M, 991M, 552M, 1666M, 827M, 1414M, 1200M, 514M, 554M, 1879M, 574M, 1037M, 671M, 594M, 1617M, 1100M, 3045M, 19326M, 2741M, 3376M, 3067M, 22397M, 656M, 823M, 549M, 1832M, 704M, 718M, 625M, 1346M, 2103M, 1505M, 730M, 1216M, 664M, 1070M, 1060M, 639M, 2723M, 1831M, 1717M, 1600M, 2369M, 1816M, 1729M, 1081M, 1616M, 1021M, 1779M, 1642M, 2027M, 1711M, 2284M, 2470M, 2579M, 2699M, 4158M, 2698M, 2899M, 20481M, 1731M, 20263M, 46379M, 19245M, 24341M, 20167M, 1770M, 2890M, 3453M, 3089M, 1611M, 3043M, 2895M, 811M, 2483M, 897M, 556M, 1478M, 532M, 2049M, 537M, 722M, 1451M, 1499M, 1661M, 1049M, 661M, 870M, 563M, 1233M, 631M, 1688M, 1378M, 2151M, 507M, 1277M, 3373M, 1525M, 2421M, 18065M, 1285M, 2623M, 1063M, 828M, 1039M, 545M, 501M, 678M, 799M, 1366M, 2852M, 651M.

Let's move on to the GRR project, the alliances that got financial support from me: 96B from Darwins Lemmings and 188B from The Marmite Collective. Check out the totally irrelevant losses: 1594M, 1285M, 6986M, 6354M, 8951M, 2282M, 964M, 2865M, 2939M, 4324M, 1017M, 3272M, 7875M, 749M, 6688M, 713M, 6669M, 1798M, 8671M, 1240M, 724M, 1573M, 5243M, 8029M, 1243M, 580M, 2866M, 707M, 821M, 694M, 536M, 6294M, 628M, 723M, 1226M, 2005M, 624M, 990M, 748M, 844M, 503M, 8163M, 948M, 1516M, 1306M, 513M, 1687M, 509M, 1166M, 6473M, 1338M, 642M, 1467M, 2134M, 1470M, 8099M, 620M, 560M, 744M, 838M, 576M, 672M, 966M, 7908M, 512M, 530M, 1858M, 647M, 581M, 1192M, 1074M, 1187M, 867M, 2111M, 645M, 837M, 6118M, 1140M, 9155M, 533M, 1507M, 739M, 737M.

Awoxes are funny. And abundant. 152B were lost in RvB killing each other and another 99B in real awoxes. Check out the top awoxers and the 500M+ awox and RvB interwar losses:
29 - Goonswarm Federation
12 - Greater Western Co-Prosperity Sphere
11 - Fidelas Constans
6 - RAZOR Alliance
4 - The Initiative.
3 - Circle-Of-Two
3 - SpaceMonkey's Alliance
509M, 1099M, 2979M, 2933M, 505M, 707M, 517M, 1075M, 670M, 846M, 2685M, 2796M, 1583M, 706M, 641M, 866M, 561M, 831M, 1289M, 1939M, 938M, 1336M, 1113M, 1058M, 1516M, 1713M, 1006M, 2466M, 3781M, 1514M, 1122M, 2287M, 756M, 1029M, 606M, 2283M, 2246M.

Finally what no one expected. 64% of the damage, 2.1T was done by "nameless NPC dwelling trash". If you add GRR here (as they are different only in my financial support), you get 72%. These guys are dubbed "totally irrelevant" in the CFC mythology. 623B (almost equal to total coalition-damage) was done by players who don't even have an alliance tag. Below you can see the highest damage non-coalition alliances and their 500M+ kills:
193 - Black Legion.
152 - Mordus Angels
125 - Triumvirate.
100 - Pasta Syndicate
54 - Sorry We're In Your Space Eh
37 - GaNg BaNg TeAm
31 - Advent of Fate
31 - No Value
30 - Exodus.
23 - The Gorgon Empire
23 - Ash Alliance
23 - No Holes Barred
21 - Mortuus.
20 - Dangerous Voltage
17 - The Camel Empire
17 - YARRR and CO
16 - Bora Alis
16 - The G0dfathers
15 - Flying Dangerous
14 - LowSechnaya Sholupen
13 - Ixtab.
12 - Choke Point
12 - Suddenly Spaceships.
Note: the numbers below are the contribution of this group, the same kill could appear earlier if another group had 500M+ contribution in it. 993M, 681M, 1051M, 679M, 1470M, 978M, 639M, 898M, 2289M, 776M, 3189M, 2686M, 5231M, 789M, 870M, 640M, 1692M, 1402M, 2001M, 2508M, 885M, 947M, 1347M, 608M, 3168M, 529M, 1784M, 566M, 768M, 531M, 1506M, 1689M, 2136M, 593M, 3308M, 2903M, 3040M, 698M, 1658M, 579M, 644M, 790M, 566M, 554M, 566M, 566M, 2085M, 693M, 1445M, 504M, 525M, 531M, 791M, 517M, 1469M, 681M, 636M, 1021M, 777M, 962M, 934M, 741M, 1150M, 522M, 1978M, 3734M, 4257M, 2069M, 950M, 1699M, 1180M, 627M, 934M, 922M, 1726M, 958M, 1259M, 709M, 748M, 647M, 534M, 1079M, 1181M, 777M, 1176M, 712M, 986M, 578M, 613M, 1579M, 748M, 1069M, 738M, 541M, 1011M, 1395M, 527M, 826M, 688M, 789M, 1051M, 700M, 5313M, 2557M, 897M, 653M, 1108M, 1001M, 602M, 1053M, 1054M, 1978M, 990M, 982M, 1124M, 606M, 1276M, 1226M, 2278M, 1228M, 1151M, 713M, 736M, 2461M, 2785M, 3087M, 2488M, 551M, 1093M, 1170M, 567M, 1525M, 728M, 684M, 826M, 1365M, 918M, 1853M, 6847M, 1272M, 955M, 507M, 1024M, 1353M, 3144M, 637M, 1006M, 753M, 1469M, 533M, 2068M, 979M, 1075M, 711M, 548M, 4363M, 1495M, 963M, 1087M, 894M, 5000M, 2179M, 3019M, 1928M, 3318M, 1846M, 2255M, 2302M, 1484M, 2262M, 515M, 1340M, 1567M, 576M, 2542M, 1943M, 2145M, 731M, 999M, 2602M, 760M, 783M, 980M, 615M, 504M, 852M, 633M, 804M, 541M, 1533M, 638M, 3917M, 1098M, 10155M, 574M, 589M, 569M, 597M, 1908M, 1781M, 1928M, 1761M, 862M, 506M, 527M, 513M, 1209M, 614M, 2894M, 1552M, 787M, 623M, 664M, 725M, 670M, 1056M, 2058M, 960M, 787M, 883M, 699M, 1106M, 651M, 5224M, 1838M, 7151M, 13639M, 4520M, 2024M, 4888M, 2812M, 944M, 2900M, 1186M, 508M, 1757M, 1844M, 3292M, 516M, 624M, 1998M, 1909M, 516M, 1882M, 1686M, 1310M, 607M, 610M, 1906M, 940M, 2317M, 2160M, 884M, 907M, 1067M, 3218M, 705M, 1815M, 1816M, 1940M, 933M, 814M, 1864M, 636M, 597M, 1103M, 1758M, 549M, 848M, 1214M, 1150M, 515M, 604M, 2294M, 1984M, 804M, 1210M, 510M, 702M, 1227M, 503M, 1676M, 2099M, 575M, 1222M, 646M, 791M, 3281M, 839M, 570M, 1162M, 644M, 622M, 650M, 1229M, 708M, 3412M, 506M, 1433M, 897M, 1382M, 914M, 1816M, 626M, 611M, 1118M, 860M, 773M, 1956M, 1157M, 11065M, 1432M, 1417M, 1576M, 656M, 846M, 818M, 690M, 801M, 743M, 3178M, 8146M, 703M, 2025M, 526M, 872M, 1544M, 1184M, 708M, 627M, 1832M, 3175M, 743M, 1682M, 1851M, 666M, 908M, 1764M, 1188M, 572M, 2458M, 710M, 600M, 701M, 2118M, 763M, 787M, 762M, 858M, 1841M, 1949M, 502M, 757M, 1130M, 1470M, 510M, 1695M, 991M, 802M, 676M, 2714M, 657M, 6318M, 771M, 1017M, 1083M, 1865M, 3970M, 605M, 518M, 1897M, 2725M, 578M, 586M, 516M, 625M, 561M, 517M, 2834M, 632M, 1165M, 899M, 720M, 932M, 1174M, 1775M, 1983M, 509M, 1761M, 2090M, 575M, 1364M, 1667M, 1948M, 788M, 1491M, 2276M, 950M, 863M, 3076M, 541M, 2469M, 2069M, 2185M, 1063M, 1027M, 3861M, 2613M, 1273M, 1590M, 1905M, 2499M, 2535M, 2757M, 2182M, 2864M, 2746M, 1858M, 4772M, 2123M, 513M, 1656M, 539M, 5262M, 542M, 1281M, 3910M, 1451M, 1764M, 590M, 604M, 677M, 1148M, 2546M, 2167M, 3761M, 990M, 1437M, 905M, 1447M, 1063M, 751M, 833M, 638M, 638M, 546M, 2929M, 580M, 1923M, 1930M, 1063M, 3104M, 681M, 1067M, 622M, 939M, 1837M, 2108M, 645M, 643M, 712M,

Finally, let's look how the ISK damage (and not kill count) is distributed between the sizes of killer fleets:
"Solo PvP is long gone" and "small gang is dead", right? These are probably the largest victories of the Goon propaganda. Practically everyone believed them, everyone whines over the "blue doughnut" and how it is impossible to make difference without kissing the ring of someone. They told this lie to make people give up, or indeed kiss some ring, therefore become harmless to Goons. Other coalitions do minimal damage to CFC and after the BoTLord pact, they pose no strategic threat either.

You might think it's because there was no all-out war in May? Well, let's run the calculation on the 2013 GSF losses. There was plenty of war in 2013. Of course GSF isn't equal to CFC and I used current coalitions but it still gives us an impression:

This is why Goons got so irritated on my GRR project. I (obviously without having a clue) bumped into the real danger to CFC: politically uninterested small gang PvP-ers hunting their haulers in highsec and their ratters in null. Goons can't metagame them (as they aren't in a hierarchical system), Goons can't blob their structures (as they barely have any) and Goons clearly can't fight back in small gang (as Goons are bad at EVE). What are you waiting for? Get into a ship already and bring death and destruction to the evil that plagues New Eden!


MoxNix said...

Interesting... I've always believed the best way to kill goons is with smaller fleets, particularly with Bombers and Black Ops fleet operating in their sov space.

One of these days I'll get around to sponsoring such a fleet. The problems are

1. Finding good people to lead and organize it, and

2. Ensuring I get good results for my ISK and don't get scammed.

Anonymous said...

Actually the remark of solo/small gang dying is not coined by goons, but mostly lowsec people, where such fights used to be standard.

Provi Miner said...

its funny, isn't it. Ok so here goes durring a 23 hour day: Alliance loses 5 billion in ships ( these are imaginary numbers please)

1 1/2 billion is lost to consented pvp (your pvp ship vs my pvp ship) the alliance reimburses most of it. This is a direct alliance cost.

Idiots 1-20 lose another 2 billion in various ships like freighters, miners. this is individual cost not alliance cost zero reimbursement.

Idiot Alpha lose's a 1 1/2 billion ratter again this is individual cost not alliance cost.

you might want to consider that in your estimation of damage done. Why, you might ask?

Well because that 2 billion is easily replaced few if any pilots who lose those ships are losing their ability to generate income and it has zero impact on the alliance. next that 1 1/2 billion pimped rat ship now that might not be replacable by the player and it could affect their income for a week or two. So instead of flying that marauder they are now flying a battleship till they recover the loss and buy a new shiny. So what damage did the alliance suffer? 1 and 1/2 billion now how much income is the alliance drawing in? most likely that much if not more.

Just something to consider

maxim said...

It is wrong to think of an alliance as something separate from its players.

That being said, it does indeed seem that these numbers are only barely scratching Goon monetary reserves.

Lucas Kell said...

For a non-null group that might be true, but since null groups pay for CTA ships, in our case usually reimbursing more than the ships value, the individual wealth of the players doesn't affect their participation. In a high sec group people fly their own stuff, so their own individual wealth matters considerably more.

And as anon said above, that's not a CFC term. We've always fought null groups like the guys mentioned in the post, in fact for the last couple of months we've been at war with a couple of them.

By the way, groups like black legion are considerably different from groups like marmite. Highsec ganker groups are completely and utterly irrelevant to us, so your entire grr project thus far has been irrelevant. Groups like BR and MoA are more relevant, sure because they live near us an attack us at home, the problem is you don't have enough isk to pay for them to deal any serious damage on top of what they already deal. The isk you pay to MoA keeps them in ships for less than half a day on average, so your contribution is irrelevant.

Anonymous said...

Some alliances are missing from this list, namely two syndicate residents: Ev0ke and V.e.G.A. who keep trying to harass .EXE in Cloud Ring.

"Trying" is a good word, because each time they do that they get devastated - small gangs or big fleets.

Others aren't as efficient as they seem. GBT/-EH- had hilarious kills in Fountain, including an unrigged, no-rep ratting carrier from FA that got killed by bombers. In the end, we rolled into Fountain Core, took their towers and DD'd a few carriers on the undock.

Same thing for PASTA - they took a few CFC moons in the south, but they were reclaimed over the course of 3 days.

Anonymous said...

Its amazing how many times Lucas Kell can use the word irrelevant in a single blog post. We should make a drinking game out f this

Lucas Kell said...

I'm sure drinking games are pointless and for fun, so therefore are retarded. That about right Gevlon?

And I can't help it if a lot of things are irrelevant. If you want to show me how I've been affected by MoA being paid a handful of pocket change, and some dumbasses getting themselves killed in Jita, by all means proceed. Up until now though whenever I've asked for such evidence I've either been moderated out or the question as simply been dismissed. Until I actually see something change that shows me that I'm being impacted by this, I'll continue to call it irrelevant, since it is in fact irrelevant.
(that was 3, drink up!)

Gevlon said...

@Lucas: besides the trivial "being killed is bad", tomorrow comes proof that Goons are indeed mad because of losses, hell they even rage quit if ganked!

Anonymous said...

Losses are nice but how do they compare to the goon income. For success you will want to hit both sides of the problem.