Monday, February 10, 2014

Lemmings in January

Darwins Lemmings was formed on January 10, with the goal of permawar against Goons and their pets, focusing on POCOs. In our first month 190 members joined:

In taking the POCOs we faced unforseen obstacle: Goons have a pet in highsec, Red vs Blue who vehemently defend the property of their masters. They must be defeated before grinding can proceed.

To analyze the kills and losses, I got all the zkillboard data downloaded. The kills are distributed according to damage percentages, so if a 100M ship has 10% Lemming damage, 10M and 0.1 kills booked. All ISK data is corrected Lemmings damage unless explicitly told. Let's see the facts for January: How much I'm satisfied with this performance? Since January had only 3 weeks (as Lemmings started on 10/01), I spent 3*500M on the Goon war, 2x500M on the PBLRD war and 3x0.25B management fee. For that 3.25B ISK, I received 26.3B damage on my targets, Goons and their pets. I think I can be fine with 8x damage amplification. Pod kills outvalue ship kills, since RvB mostly flies crap.

Let's now see the losses! I'd like to remind you that I don't pay for these losses, the pilots involved bear them:
  • 276 losses, 10B ship and 1.4B pod losses. Remember that to book a loss, the killer must have API uploaded.
  • Highest value losses: 656M, 573M, 531M, 506M, 445M, 371M, 266M, 206M, 193M, 183M
  • Our killers: GSF: 0.3B, RvB: 7.3B, Others: 3.7B
  • Places of deaths: Jita: 5.2B, Josameto 2.1B, New Caldari: 1.3B
As you can see, despite the war started against GSF, their damage on us is near-zero. Majority of the kills and losses happen against their highsec pet, RvB and opportunistic randoms. We must focus on their pods, as that's their only vulnerable point. Every fleet must have potcatching Trashers.

From now on, I'll give you monthly reports at the early days of each month.

Finally, some hilarious data. As the member growth is linear, we can approximate that the average member spent half of the 22 days of January (no Lemmings existed for 9 days) in Lemmings. So we reached the above kills and losses with 190 members in 0.03 years. Let's compare that with the 2013 Goonwaffe and inner pet data:
Kills: 6.3B/member/year for Lemmings, 0.48B/member/year for Goons, 1.2B/member/year for inner pets.
Losses: 2.0B/member/year for Lemmings, 0.48B/member/year for Goons, 0.8B/member/year for inner pets.
So, completely randomly invited people have 15x more kills and 3x better K/D than pure blood Goons!

Finally, the big question: will Lemmings destroy the Goon POCOs? I'm sure we will. Why? Because with such massacre, it won't be hard to continue recruiting. People flock to easy kills and we are giving them just that. With enough numbers we can simply outblob RvB and force Goons to blob too. What if they blob? We simply scatter and catch stragglers. Remember, Lemmings are at home in highsec, we don't have to form up, travel, rep, travel home. Standing down doesn't mean "sitting at home" but "doing what we're doing anyway". Currently I see no way how could we lose (besides management drama).

26 comments:

Alessandro said...

There's also a way to lose: CCP patches that save Goons by mechanics changes.

CCP can change the universe rules and screw the winning side!

professor clio said...

There's only one problem, lemmings aren't growing, they shed corps and members the last few days. But never let the facts stand in the way of a good story!

Anonymous said...

For that 3.25B ISK, I received 26.3B damage on my targets, Goons and their pets. I think I can be fine with 8x damage amplification.

so, if you have 500b isk, and you spend it all on this war (and I'm going to assume you wouldn't be so daft as to do that)

then you can do 4T damage on those numbers. Do you think 4T will even slightly hurt Goons?

Gevlon said...

@Professor Clio: yes, the month-end inactive cleaning definitely will be our undoing. Totally.

@Anonymous: 4T is the combined loss of Asakai, HED GP and B-R. So yes, it does.

Dado R. said...

So you count their ship losses and not yours, even if you don't pay it they don't either.

Stop drinking your own cool aid

Anonymous said...

Please describe what you mean by "inner pets"

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous: 4T is the combined loss of Asakai, HED GP and B-R. So yes, it does.


Do you honestly think that this will have any major impact on goons given it will not put pressure at all on their *SRP*, or any of their income streams, and will be spread out over a bunch of players?


provi Miner said...

My favorite part is of the lemmings war is RvB stuff. Come on I just bet their diplo shot his load when goons made him a great offer (protect us and we protect you) bet it never occured to him that what it really ment was "protect us, so we don't have too" lol. Now RvB gets the job of protecting goon crap while goons laugh at them all the way. In other words RvB is being treated worse than a pet, at least a pet gets a bone thrown in their direction every now and then. My second favorite part was how goons bitch slapped thier highsec hoe and put them back to work after RvB said no thanks to war decing lemmings. LOL The moral is "once you bceome a goon's bitch you're going to pimped to the max forever" The goons gonna ride that two dollar whore all the way into the ground and then skull screw them after they are dead. Keep the faith Gob point out how shooting goons is not only fun but profitable. (which is a stat you did not include).

Gevlon said...

Inner pet: GSF member who is not Goonwaffe. They are "inner" for being inside, and "pets" for having zero power.

Losses to individual members are decreasing their ability to fleet up as they have to spend time regrind the lost value.

For that reason I'm not counting our losses, because it has zero opportunity cost for me.

I mean if a Goon doesn't lose his ship in highsec, the regrind time is saved for flying in Goon ops. If a Lemming doesn't lose his ship, his time can't be used by me in any way.

Anonymous said...

I don't know, but the victim of that most valuable kill is not in goons or rvb?

Anonymous said...

Inner pet: GSF member who is not Goonwaffe. They are "inner" for being inside, and "pets" for having zero power.

Ok, you do understand that a large number of corps in GSF are functionally goonwaffe don't you? Large entities in eve tend to use additional corporations in order to organize their players, split managerial load and decentralize their isk into multiple wallets to mitigate the impact of someone taking it all and just because their corps tend to hit the corp member limit very quickly due to their immense size.

So I think your calculations are out because your "everyone in GSF who is now goonwaffe is a pet" statement is wrong.

Lucas Kell said...

@Gevlon
"I spent 3*500M on the Goon war, 2x500M on the PBLRD war and 3x0.25B management fee"
So to clarify, General Lemming/Tora is being paid the management fee to sit and watch from the sidelines right? Sounds like a good deal for him. Who paid the alliance creation cost, did they have to eat that one?

"will Lemmings destroy the Goon POCOs? I'm sure we will. Why? Because with such massacre, it won't be hard to continue recruiting. People flock to easy kills and we are giving them just that. With enough numbers we can simply outblob RvB and force Goons to blob too. What if they blob? We simply scatter and catch stragglers."
You realise though that none of the lemmings can actually PvP right? They sit on gates and stations catching people as they come through in like 10:1 odds. That doesn't translate across to an army that can take a POCO where they can't just suddenly run away if it gets hairy.

"4T is the combined loss of Asakai, HED GP and B-R. So yes, it does."
Except that 4T won't be done to goons, it will be done to individual members.

"Losses to individual members are decreasing their ability to fleet up as they have to spend time regrind the lost value.

For that reason I'm not counting our losses, because it has zero opportunity cost for me."
Your guys ALSO have to grind isk. And I seriously doubt a goon losing a ship in high sec will have any impact on his null sec play, since he will still have his CTA assets in null. Due to SRP, there is no need to grind for ops.

@provi Miner
"You are assuming RvB have no choice and are being forced into defending. Right now POCOs aren't even under attack and they are maintaining the war because they want to. The lemmings guys have continuously insulted RvB from moment 1, and I'd be very surprised if RvB weren't taking this war incredibly personally now. I know you like to fantasize about this idea that goons are bullying RvB into helping, but its simply not realistic. Continue to spout propaganda as required though.

Gevlon said...

@Lucas: management fee is for the recruiting effort and the time spent replying mails, dealing with "me and my brother want to join as a corp because we are awesome PvP-ers with that 3 T1 kills in January, too good to join into the generic corp". I definitely don't want to deal with this crap.

It's a bit harsh to claim we can't PvP when we are beating RvB badly.

Losses to individual members do effect their ability to fleet up, despite they could indeed fly in fleets for free. But then, why were they in highsec in the first place? Because not even pets are drones who just log in to shoot structures in bombless bombers. They have their own agendas and goals, like a capital ship, or solo roaming Cynabal or whatever. They split their time between serving The Mittani and serving themselves. If we push them back in their own goals, it's not a wild guess that they rearrange some time from the "serving The Mittani" part into the "serving himself" part. In short: since the guy lost his ISK meant for his Cynabal, he will rat instead of fleeting up, because he wants that Cynabal.

Indeed, if a Lemming loses something expensive, it decreases his chances to fleet up or may even makes him leaving Lemmings. How is it different from Goon losses?

If every Lemming gives up because of the losses and quits, I'll be back where I was in December: no members. If every Goons give up and quits, The Mittani will be in a much-much worse situation than he was in December.

If RvB takes the war personally, they'd leave, as every day spent in the war is another day of being embarrassed and stomped by TOTALLY RANDOM PEOPLE WITHOUT FC.

Anonymous said...

You are making it sound like lemmings is filled with only people who have no PvP experience.

Many high sec wardec corps manage fine without an FC, as do many FW pilots.

Now, it is entirely possible that lemmings only recruits carebears who have never used their ships for anything apart from shooting red X's, in which case I would be suitably impressed at their understanding of high sec pvp mechanics, and pvp mechanics in general.

The Lemmings/RvB/Goons war is great fun, make no mistake about that, but, to paint it as all newbies vs vets is a bit disingenuous.
It is highsec pvpers doing what they have always done (which, incidentally, you can train a brand new eve player to do in 2-3 days), only now you are footing the bill for a war Marmite would have probably kept up happily anyway.

As before, why not fund some "serious" PvPers to take goon sov?

You have 500B isk at your disposal, after all, right?

Unless you think POCOs generate such high income that they are equivalent to the goons null income?

Wanting some permawar in highsec is a "fun" goal, whereas you want to destroy goons, which will only happen if you bankroll (anonymously if needed, through a 3rd party such as Grendell/Chribba/etc), an alliance and then a coalition to take out CFC.

Anonymous said...

Did you see the latest participation stats the CFC posted?

http://i.imgur.com/72UJdLH.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/59a7RRg.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/3F74Td3.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/B2q8rMC.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/gmw2WWc.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/ud3S2GF.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/6OrBrTg.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/YHp03SM.jpg

Posting this anonymously of course.

Professor Clio said...

Gevlon, do you really believe that lemmings are "good pvpers" because they are " beating RvB badly"? 16 or the 22 billion in damage inflicted on RvB by lemmings are pods... IE things that don't shoot back. And even with those pod kills the lemmings efficiency against us is only 55%.

The lemmings are good at one thing and one thing only: camping hubs and gates to kill pods. They are in fact terrible pvpers.

Lucas Kell said...

@Gevlon
"It's a bit harsh to claim we can't PvP when we are beating RvB badly."
Is it? You make the same claim against the CFC and we are busily stomping pretty much everyone in the game. The difference is that we know that it's not down to PvP ability, its down to a good strategy, strong leadership, well defined doctrines and the ability to get everyone in the right ships at the right time and place. Now the lemmings strategy works fine for KB padding in 10 on 1 gatecamps, but that doesn't mean they would stand a chance of fighting an actual fleet.

The lemmings use kitchen sink T1 fits, have brand new FCs with no experience in large fleets and simply don't have the skillset to go against a larger group. Look at it with a bit of realism and be honest with yourself about what they can accomplish. Just the FC issue alone is enough to put them out of the running. I've seen them lose control of a 10 man roam because they couldn't make decisions fast enough. The level of skill required to FC one fleet of 200+ in a collection of 10+ fleets is in a completely different playing field, but that's what they'll need to accomplish to achieve what you want them to.

"Losses to individual members do effect their ability to fleet up, despite they could indeed fly in fleets for free."
What is this based on? If this were even remotely true, which it really isn't, it would affect such a shocking minority it would not be worth mentioning. We get more than enough downtime to grind out most losses without too much issue, and most of us have enough to not be affected by losses at all. If someone gets killed in highsec (being dumb) and they lose enough assets to actually have to actively grind isk to replace it, then choose to grind instead of form up for CTAs, then I don't think anybody cares if they form up or not, in fact I'd be surprised if their name wasn't immediately placed on a purge list.

"Indeed, if a Lemming loses something expensive, it decreases his chances to fleet up or may even makes him leaving Lemmings. How is it different from Goon losses?"
Because goons have SRP. Ships that people are putting on the line at high risk of loss for the benefit of the group are replaced. That means that the average member, who isn't losing ships outside of ops are not losing anything. With the lemmings, all losses are shouldered by the individual, meaning when they are asked to form up, they can only bring what they can personally afford to lose, not what is good for the group. Then when they can't afford it, they can't form up. Never an issue for the CFC.
You'd actually do better to hire someone to build you guys a doctrine, then fund SRP too. I guarantee that if the war properly kicks off, Marmite will fall back (since they don't let losses accumulate on their killboard, even if they win the fight) and you'll start seeing a drop in participation as individuals start to wonder why they are personally funding someone else's agenda.

"If RvB takes the war personally, they'd leave, as every day spent in the war is another day of being embarrassed and stomped by TOTALLY RANDOM PEOPLE WITHOUT FC."
You are treating this like the losses are new. Losses happen with high sec wardecs. it's not the first and certainly not the last time they will lose ships. The volume of isk loss on ships is due to economies of class. If I lost a sports car, I'd be pretty devastated. If a multi billionaire lost a sports car, that would barely blip on his radar. Gate camps and station camps happen, and I seriously doubt that RvB as a whole are feeling embarrassed by it. The fact that GL/Tora doesn't stop smacktalking about it for longer than a couple of seconds isn't likely to make RvB stop though. That would make them look vastly weaker.

Provi Miner said...

@ Lucas derp you need to re-read goblins posts. RvB war decced for two weeks then they got tired of it and quit. Then Goons found out (via a goblins post) and the very next day RvB was made an alli of the forever war. So yeah they were bullied into continuing the fight. If not why did the goons seem so surprised that RvB left the war, Why did the RvB directors tell everyone they wree done with the war? Why did RvB get roped back into the war less than two days later.

Not a single thing I posted was imagined. RvB is getting reamed and don't know how to even ask for a bit of lube to ease the pain.

Gevlon said...

@Professor Clio: yes, our kills don't count as we don't have e-honor and if we'd fight properly, 1 v 1 in T1 frigs, your awesome skillz would prevail.

You are an embarrassment to the Goons!

@Lucas: if CFC members don't need ISK, why do they make ISK at the first place? If they want ISK, then losing ISK hurt them.

You wrongfully assume that they have "enough downtime" to regrind losses. You and I have enough downtime, but most people don't take the game that seriously (we both post about it, so we take it seriously). They spend like 1-2 hours a day in the game, so they can either go to an op or grind. Inflicting them losses send them to grind, especially, if the fund their account by PLEX. Then they MUST go grind or they can't continue playing.

Lucas Kell said...

@Provi Miner
"derp you need to re-read goblins posts. RvB war decced for two weeks then they got tired of it and quit."
Lol, genius. Perhaps learn wardec mechanics before going off on the wrong path. I'll leave it at that and let you figure out why they took a brief leave.
Honestly, do you think RvB could be bullied by goons? That is giving goons a LOT of credit.

"if CFC members don't need ISK, why do they make ISK at the first place? If they want ISK, then losing ISK hurt them.

You wrongfully assume that they have "enough downtime" to regrind losses. You and I have enough downtime, but most people don't take the game that seriously (we both post about it, so we take it seriously). They spend like 1-2 hours a day in the game, so they can either go to an op or grind. Inflicting them losses send them to grind, especially, if the fund their account by PLEX. Then they MUST go grind or they can't continue playing."
Same reason as everyone else. And I don't "wrongfully assume" this, I am part of that group, so I, unlike you have first hand knowledge. Look, the short of it is this. If you think high sec losses matter to any more than a tiny minority of null sec group you are delusional. Honestly though it really doesn't matter what you think. Go on heading down the wrong path, see how much it affects us when absolutely nothing changes. Once again, a failed endeavour from the goblin covered up with reams of incorrect stats.

Professor clio said...

@gevlon. The kills certainly count. They're just not any indication of pvp ability like you claim. I know you don't understand pvp but even for you that claim was pretty ridiculous.

Gevlon said...

@Professor Clio: "PvP ability" is the ability to kill the opposing player. Period. I know you wish to believe in a magical "skill" that your people own, but that doesn't exist. The results matter. Goons were better in PvP than BoB. Lemmings are better in PvP than RvB.

You can't disprove that with any argument here. You can only disprove it by starting winning. Which you can't, since you are just a bunch of friglolling scrubs.

Professor Clio said...

Killing pods and winning fleet engagements are different things. You seem to think one equals the other... Even you aren't that dumb so you must be trolling me. Anyway check the RvB purple killboard, even wtihp the bads losing their pods we're in the mid 40% efficiency against both marmite and lemmings. So much for your. "Crushing victory" and our losses are spread around far more characters whereas your poor lemmings are taking much more ISK damage per character. Good luck getting them to keep that up.

Anonymous said...

People keep saying the isk damage will not hurt goons. People always say wars decs don't bother null sec alliances. Funny at any Eve gathering how people will tell members of The Marmite Collective how much it bothers them and slows them down.

Another big key thing people tend to not see is that this right now may not hurt Goons as a whole but as members keep having to buy new ships cause they have no SRP for the crap they lost it will effect goons.

RvB has also lost many members who are not happy with all the purple. Professor Clio forgot to add that I think.

One other big thing people fail to see is this puts pressure on pets of goons as well as renters. Resentment sets in from people not happy with the perma war and it causes ripples that turn into waves in alliances. Especially when you add in alts in some alliances who stoke the fires.

If you want to look at a painting look at the whole thing not just one corner. I could list more stuff but I do not have all day. I wish you guys knew how many people drop alliance as soon as they lose a big fancy ship to war decs.

Gevlon also left out the cost of goons getting concorded defending high sec pocos for what ever reason. Not this was not our direct action but was funny as hell to watch as each poco they went to to repair at least one nub goon got concorded.

He also left out how RvB sat for 3 hours last time with a 40 man fleet to hit Lemmings at the poco's yet Lemmings were off killing WT's not sitting around with some purple flags up.

You can also add in the 1 billion isk fee for each new alliance goons make in high sec for dropping pocos. So many options for adding up the cost.

Lucas Kell said...

@Anon
"Another big key thing people tend to not see is that this right now may not hurt Goons as a whole but as members keep having to buy new ships cause they have no SRP for the crap they lost it will effect goons."
That's just wishful thinking. The majority of them are likely to just stop going to high sec on an in-alliance character, like we tell them to. So at most, Marmite are training CFC pilots for us. Thanks!

"RvB has also lost many members who are not happy with all the purple. Professor Clio forgot to add that I think."
Member counts of both Red and Blue are up, so there can't be that many quitting. Verify on dotlan if you need to.

"One other big thing people fail to see is this puts pressure on pets of goons as well as renters. Resentment sets in from people not happy with the perma war and it causes ripples that turn into waves in alliances. Especially when you add in alts in some alliances who stoke the fires."
I can;t remember a time when we weren't wardecced for a significant amount of time. Most null alliances simply assume high sec wardecs all the time and operate as such. I seriously doubt any resentment will set in. Then even if it did, what's the option? Move to another coalition where there are just as many wardecs but we own less space?

"I wish you guys knew how many people drop alliance as soon as they lose a big fancy ship to war decs."
Not enough to make a dent in the dotlan statistics graph it seems.

"Gevlon also left out the cost of goons getting concorded defending high sec pocos for what ever reason. Not this was not our direct action but was funny as hell to watch as each poco they went to to repair at least one nub goon got concorded."
Miniluv get concorded. Fact. I very much doubt it was happening by accident.

"He also left out how RvB sat for 3 hours last time with a 40 man fleet to hit Lemmings at the poco's yet Lemmings were off killing WT's not sitting around with some purple flags up."
Actually the lemmings were on a lowsec roam and arguing with randoms in Hek as they tried to cheat duels with external reps.

"You can also add in the 1 billion isk fee for each new alliance goons make in high sec for dropping pocos. So many options for adding up the cost."
That alliance already existed (check the history). Also, you don't need an alliance to drop a poco, just a corp. Then that corp can merge into goonswarm, transfer the poco then be disbanded.

Well done, that post was almost 100% fail.

Domineren said...

Before you say all Lemmings have no PvP experience, check my killboard. It's Domineren and Kai86.

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