Monday, February 24, 2014

How can risk averse people defeat Goons?

Goons obviously didn't win EVE. Yet.

Goons will win EVE when every Sov is under GSF and pet colors. Now that's not true. But GSF is indeed on a path that - without massive change - would surely lead to this point. This is why the Goon propagandist James 315 posted his lullaby on the Goon misinformation platform.

Like all good propagandists, he didn't lie. He presented truth, half-truth and left the reader to reach the false conclusion. Let's start with the truth: Goons are far from winning. Most of the Sov and above all, most of the pilots are not under Goon or Pet control. He continued with the true story of TEST, how they broke away from CFC and risen to power - only to lose it to politics. He also tells the story of SirMolle, flying together with PL, his old archenemies. From there, the conclusion is obvious: CFC had split once, and will split again. PL was with Goons and TEST against Nulli and RUS and then with TEST and Nulli against Goons and then with Nulli against RUS who were with Goons. What stops SMA or FCON from the same road?

Simple: it's the economy stupid. SMA isn't a Goon pet because their leadership consist of Goon alts and "easygoing guys" (useful idiots) like RvB. Leaders can be usurped, just ask Sort Dragon. SMA isn't a pet because it fears retribution. They could just abandon their Sov and move to another coalition that gives them a region. SMA, FCON, FA and the rest are pets because if suddenly all Goons would stop logging in, they couldn't pay their own Sov bills. They have no ratters, they have no industry, every penny they have is coming from Goon managed PBLRD and from GSF SRP. They aren't infiltrated or threatened by Goons but dependent on them.

TEST - while was wasting too much time on PvP - still had self-sufficiency from local industry and PvE. TEST - under Montolio and not that moron BoodaBooda - was a complete alliance. It could and did stand on its own, it was just too small in the age of coalitions. On the other hand with the constant participation evaluation the Goons do on their pets (but not to themselves), they forced them into this "army and nothing else" state. OK, it's not that hard to force them. They are PvP-ers and happy while they can shoot stuff, caring little for who are they shooting or where does the money come from. Maybe I'm unfair with the term "pet", "mercenaries, permanently employed by Goons" is a better term.

CFC won't split because it cannot. The other coalitions on the other hand can and will. There is one thing a RUSRUS member hates more than PL, NC. or Goons: the next RUSRUS member. If you are allied with NC., you'd better watch out for Falcons. It's only time before they turn on themselves. As soon as they split, only one half can claim the treaty with Goons. If that treaty says "the land of SOLAR and allies will not be contested by CFC", then it won't be. But the other half of RUSRUS is no longer "SOLAR and allies", so they are free game. Every time something splits, half of it will be eaten by the CFC until nothing is left.

What can a Sov-null player, corp or even alliance do to prevent this? Absolutely nothing. If he moves against Goons, his current allies have two choices: to throw away their treaties and go all in, risking another B-R, or just do nothing and keep enjoying safety. After all PL was not hellcamped like Nulli. If you turn on Goons, you'll do it alone, like TEST did. If you aren't alone, after the first major loss (which happens to everybody), you'll be alone like Nulli, while your former allies are getting temp-blues and new safety treaties.

If you want to stop Goons from winning EVE by eating broken coalition halves, you must leave Sov nullsec. Why? Because Progodlegend is right: you are risk averse p...erson. Considering the B-R loss distribution, Nulli was probably "a bit cautious" with titan deployment, so he has no moral high ground.

It's OK, I'm a risk averse person too. I don't give my capital to the Lemmings/Marmites, only my weekly income. I didn't go all in. If everything we've built would fall apart today, I'd be right where I was before we started, losing only the opportunity cost of the last 7 weeks. Goons are also risk averse people. You can remember how they cried to Shadoo about the "insane" Montolio instead of showing him who's the boss. You can remember them grinding regions in bombless bombers because dreads might get shot at. If they lose space, they lose lot of assets. They won't lose their pilots, that's sure, but they'd be thrown back a year or two.

How can you stop being a risk averse person? How could I know? I guess even your mum fights better in EVE than me and she doesn't even play. But I know how to fight like a lion while being a risk averse person. Stop living in Sov-null! Then you can choose what assets you put in the line and live by the "only fly what you can afford to lose" rule. You can't lose stuff in a station in NPC-null or Empire. Also, your income doesn't depend on your Sov. If BoT would be destroyed, PL wouldn't have income. If Lemmings would be destroyed, every members and me would still have all of his income. This is why we engage 350v20000.

You have an alternative to clinging to the Goon treaty and praying that no Falcon is killed today, giving a reason for Goons to consider it invalid. You can defeat Goons. But you must live and earn ISK outside of Sov-null. If you accidentally take some Sov, install renters and take the rent income as gifts, but calculate your budget without it. The income of both the alliance and its members must depend on pirate missions, FW or highsec alts. Then the Goons can't touch you. They can't touch me either, that's why I laugh in their face. They can only destroy what you choose to let them. Like the money I put into Lemmings. Sure, losses still hurt, but only your pride and not your wallet. You can fight next week again without making any change of withdraw or evac or anything.

Of course this needs determined members and some democracy. If their income isn't dependent on Sov-null, you have no leverage over your members. So you can't command them like you used to. But you can move forward and ask them to follow. Most will not, they'll cling to the alternative of living in Sov until Goons destroy or enslave them. But those who go with you willingly will fight like lions. Even if inside they are just as risk averse people as myself.

On the other hand this makes you immune to infiltration and "meta-gaming": since a director has no power over the members, can't hurt them either. He can't drop sov, can't steal moon or renter money, because there aren't any. So all spies can do is awoxing ratting ships or reporting fleet compositions.

Fun fact: TEST is already doing something like that, though if I were them, I'd cloaky camp Deklein instead. Just compare the "NPCs killed in 24 hours" fields to see why!


PS: little propaganda trick: if you want to move out of Sov for a foreverwar against Goons, mention your members that I'm already in a foreverwar with the Goons. After all "chickened out when the model carebear Gevlon was fighting" isn't something a PvP-er would put into his resume. These are the new stats of Lemmings from dotlan and eve-census:

23 comments:

Provi Miner said...

The point? I live and fight in null long before I were to be dealt a deathblow my shit would be in low/empire/npc space. I still can't figure out the reason why n3 choose to make a fortnox (without the fort) in O-W. It didn't make sense to me. But bah lets say goons come tramping into my space. Operation 1 get useless crap out (ratters, specialtiy crap) Op 2 move cool stuff around mostly to low sec or empire. Op 3 make the frackers pay for every station every system give them their "russian front". Seems simple and yes I live where those options exist. I wouldn't willingly live someplace where the only way in and out could be hell camped (thats called backing yourself into a corner). Should all else fail yes I would advocate getting into a forever war funded by Goblin and yes we would show up for that final timer.

Erotica 1 said...

For your eyes only: a nasty surprise without graphs...

A risk adverse person, or group of people, can easily defeat a huge superpower. The battlefield approach is not how to do it. Your best bet is to do at least one of the following, ideally all at once.

1. Bribe directors with an insane amount of isk- in the low trillions, possibly with Chribba as escrow.

2. Over a few years, plant spies that rise up the ranks.

3. SBU bomb all of their regions at once, every single system. Invite all of Eve to claim whatever they want. You can't defend every system at once. On the other hand, a single person with enough isk, or group of people, can put an army of alts gradually into place with sbu's.

No power in this game can counter my strategies. Good thing I am one of the good guys!

Anonymous said...

CFC had split once, and will split again.

His point was actually that the CFC in its previous guises have split up many *many* times before..and will split again.

To say it has split once is you misrepresenting the facts.

Foo said...

For the PVP minded, I would throw wormholes with nullsec statics into the mix, for a different reason.

Rumor has it that wormholes are isk faucets. I am biased, and have nothing to compare it to; all my isk currently comes from wormholes.

A wh system's infrastructure can be taken away from you, but is replaceable.

But, by definition, a nullsec static provides the ability to enter random null systems, including your target systems. A useful tool in Asymmetric warfare.

Gevlon said...

@Provi miner: because
1: Goons can surprise-hellcamp you and you lose assets
2: Even if you evac, half of your alliance is not (because dumb, or not active enough)
3: Even if they do, your operations are still disrupted. My point is if you LIVE outside of Sov-null, Goons can't touch your backyard, not even temporarily

@Erotica1: I doubt if it would work on Goons. Their directors are in personal connections and they admittedly make real world money from the game (via their site). They won't risk it for pixel money

@Foo: a nullsec static wormhole isn't a bad idea, but not for PvE. As you open your assets up to them. I wouldn't PvE in any wormhole if I'd be at war with Goons or "suddenly 500 BC in my hole reinforcing structures"

But it's great for a PvP staging area, as whenever your static is in hostile space, you can surprise-gank without showing up on intel channels.

GWI said...

Funny. You have basically described test. Now that we are able to dunk on CFC and cut into renter income. I look forward to a two pronged assault. If only you would make nice with RVB. I'm sure offering then CFC pocos for just staying out, you can win that quick.

Anonymous said...

I wondered whether nobbling Goons in high sec could be enhanced by numerous cloaky persons dropping siphons on Goon owned moon mining operations. Put sufficient pressure on their passive income and who knows what might happen...

Lucas Kell said...

That was a really really long way of writing "Even though loads of people have told me otherwise, I still don't understand how the CFC functions", and that's why you won't ever defeat us. To even remotely stand chance, you have to actually understand your enemy, not just understand the god awful propaganda you've put forward. Flying into NPC null and ratting is never going to make you win a war. You can have all the ISK in the game in your pocket, but if you don't understand how to realistically damage your enemy, then you'll never achieve anything.

Gevlon said...

@Lucas: did I say anywhere that this will destroy Goons? I said it allows one to continue to fight indefinitely, preventing them from winning.

"Destroying Goons" will come Wednesday.

Lucas Kell said...

@Gevlon
"did I say anywhere that this will destroy Goons? I said it allows one to continue to fight indefinitely, preventing them from winning."
Well under the idea that they have to take ALL space to win, they never will. It's been made perfectly clear that we're not even likely to take the whole of null, just enough to ensure we remain the strongest superpower.

Now what you are doing is paying for people to dance around in highsec. You'll have no impact in any decision made by the CFC in terms of dominance. Essentially you want to be able to pay some isk to a random group and feel like you are being important, thus fulfilling your dream of making an impact in EVE. The problem is you don;t understand the game enough to know where you isk is best spent. I guarantee that if you paid for the lemmings to stay at war forever, long term you would continue to see absolutely no difference.

That said, the Lemmings will collapse before too long, as the exact thing you raise up as a benefit, the "only fly what you can afford to lose" will become it's downside. Pretty soon people will think "hey, why am I spending my time and losing my own personal isk and not achieving what I signed up to achieve?". And that will be that. There will always be a core group, as that's made up of Tora and some other Marmite's alts to keep you paying, but the rest of the alliance will fall apart. There have already been some leavers, and there's definitely the undertone of disappointment when talking to many of the members.

This is what happens when you fight a null group in high sec. Pretty soon people start to realise that you are in fact just killing a handful of dumbasses and doing nothing to the actual coalition. So when it stops being fun and starts to become a grindfest, and they're paying for it themselves AND their making no impact, what possible reason do they have to stay?

Gevlon said...

Any graph to support your "Lemmings are leaving" thing? Because I see growth both in kills and members. Of course the February kill analysis will be the most important, but I see no problems.

Also, we now have up-to-cruiser reimbursement.

Are there disappointed people? Yes. Especially those who have longer employment history than a chain-awoxer.

Also, you don't really understand Lemmings. Most of them don't give a damn about impact, they are just happy to shoot stuff that doesn't want to be shot at.

If Goons had the idea first, they could use people like them against their enemies. Oh wait, they had the idea first, hence RvB.

Arrendis said...

Gevlon:
SMA, FCON, FA and the rest are pets because if suddenly all Goons would stop logging in, they couldn't pay their own Sov bills. They have no ratters, they have no industry, every penny they have is coming from Goon managed PBLRD and from GSF SRP.

Hi, I'm in TNT, and I rat and do industry. IOW: Once again, you're wrong, Gevlon, but thanks for playing.

Every CFC alliance has ratters. Every one has industrialists, from ice miners to moon goo reactors to ship builders. Sometimes all in the same person!

Please, please, be informed before making such ridiculous statements. And doubly so before you make lengthy extrapolations from them that lead to completely wrong conclusions.

Gevlon said...

@Arrendis: check out http://evemaps.dotlan.net/map/Deklein#npc24

TNT space had a bit less kills than CONDI space. Before you'd say, significant kills outside of Deklein:
9GI-FB: 3800
L-1HKR: 3700

So sure, you have ratters. But your ratting activity is miniscule compared to GSF.

Babar said...

TNT has ratting rights in all of Deklein though, so you(or anyone else) cannot possibly know how much TNT rats compared to GSF.

Tsed said...

Gevlon: TNT, just like GSF, has free ratting in all Deklein. You neither have the data to back your claims, nor the knowledge of the CFC internals to know what data to look for.

TC said...

I feel like I just read several paragraphs, that could be summarised pretty easily as:
"In Highsec, you are safer and less likely to lose your stuff to other people."
To me this seemed a basic part of the game. I assume people who live outside of Highsec do so because they want to take part in sov wars and are happy to accept the risks that entails.

Lucas Kell said...

@Gevlon
"Any graph to support your "Lemmings are leaving" thing? Because I see growth both in kills and members."
Sure: http://evemaps.dotlan.net/alliance/Darwins_Lemmings, though you can just look at your own graph. Notice how the last few points on your scatter are below the previous ones, that's where the number went down. If you look at the number of corps, you'll see that the decrease in numbers is being pulled to a flat by the addition of a corp. At the moment, the alliance is still new, meaning you will find it easier to pull in numbers, but retention is going to be your issue. Already people are starting to lose interest, and once you get over the initial recruitment spurt, you'll see the numbers dipping without being countered through member acquisition.

"Also, you don't really understand Lemmings. Most of them don't give a damn about impact, they are just happy to shoot stuff that doesn't want to be shot at."
I understand them very well. You have three main types of member (excluding spies). Those who want to have some fun and shoot people, those who are there because they hate goons and those who are there as marmite alts or wishing to be in marmite. From the fun crowd, you will begin to lose members that realise camps and POCO bashes are boring. From the "grr goons" crowd, you'll lose people as they start to see no impact. Now of course you will retain the marmite crowd, which will keep a baseline of members, but overall you'll see it dip. As stated above, this will start to manifest as soon as your level of acquisition finds it's normal level. You simply don't have enough going on to hold a good level of retention, and the leadership is absent so people feel like they've pretty much been left to just get on with it.

Gevlon said...

@Lucas: the "loss" is from one corp, the 47 members triton corporation. They tried themselves out in PvP. I leave it to you to decide their succes:
https://zkillboard.com/corporation/98286793/

The "shoot stuff" people are happy, because gatecamps - while boring to you or me - are the best way to shoot stuff.

I'm working on the GRR Goon impact problem.

Lucas Kell said...

@Gevlon
"The "shoot stuff" people are happy, because gatecamps - while boring to you or me - are the best way to shoot stuff."
Have you actually read their feedback? Most of them aren't loving just sitting on a gate or a station waiting. Even if you are getting to eventually shoot someone, that's not fun for most people. You're probably seeing the core marmite group enjoying that, but the people who have signed up for PvP aren't leaping about saying "Yaaay! Camps!". They put up with it for now as it's temporary, and they are being told they will got to VFK and such, but sooner or later, they'll realise that's all a load of bull.

Provi Miner said...

Ah I think you miss the point, perhaps I should explain Provi to you (just a bit). Your source of income if it is null based is always disrupted thats how it goes in provi. So no goons can not change how I play even with complete rolling of provi. You can surprise/hell camp provi look at that map goons could 100% log in maybe cover 2% of the systems with stations. Those who don't evac are the ones who are not active (which somewhere between 30 and 50 % anyways so no loss there. Look at the map, the map is the key what do you see? Two high sec entrances, one low sec entrence and a ton of null entrances. Now in theory catch should not be viable but as you know nbsi space is fairly empty, so not a barrier. Pluse from low you can cover half of provi with blops and from catch/curse you can pretty much cover the rest. In fact rolling provi while possible, heck even doable, is not even close to a break even prop. Oh and one last thing about provi unless you are true carebear the income required to fight is extremely low. How much for a fitted out bomber to do blops with? 30 mil fitted. All I am saying is your negatives of null sov are nullified in large part by provi's location and the type of sov it is NRDS. Visit sometime in a nuet alt go to a mining system and see how much "straight" mining is done less then an hour or so at a time because of the easy access reds have to the region which if provi were rolled would be the former sov owners. It would be a mess to take and hold. Ask PL how their roll went in provi.

Anonymous said...

The best way to have fun shooting stuff is to join RvB... I had 63 kills this weekend, had a great time.

I *do* share your concern about CFC over-dominance. But taking their pocos isn't going to hurt them in any real meaningful way.

LR

Arrendis said...

Gevlon:

You might have already heard this once or twice, but... TNT has ratting rights through all of Deklein. :)

Seriously, you know very little of the internal workings of the CFC, man.

Emmy said...

@Louis
>I *do* share your concern about CFC over-dominance. But taking their pocos isn't going to hurt them in any real meaningful way.

Why do you defend them then?

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