Greedy Goblin

Tuesday, July 4, 2017

Political prediction (exact, you can point and laugh in 2020)

Yes, I promised that I won't do it again. And I really haven't read Huffpo or Breitbart since. But you couldn't miss this tweet unless you moved into a cave. The sitting President of the US tweeted a childish meme of himself beating up a CNN headed guy.

The reason I'm posting about it instead of just laughing is that I read some reactions, just recreationally (read: liberal tears) and I had an idea that I must share. It's numerical and exact, you can link and laugh in 2020 if I'm wrong. I believe that he didn't "snap", he didn't lose his mind, he is building a genius political strategy to win the 2020 elections. For context:

In the last 25 years young people (18-29) voted for Democrat, regardless how the election went. This is often dubbed as "the liberals won the cultural war". We saw it as practically all celebrities who are relevant for young people supported Clinton. I believe Trump runs a deliberate and planned social media presence to turn it around and my prediction is that he'll succeed, in 2020 he'll win the young vote. I also predict that young voter turnout will be over 55% in 2020 (was 41-48-52-49-50 in the last 5 elections). These are exact predictions, you can come back and laugh if I'm wrong (I'm not). I can't promise 2018 midterms, because the Republican candidates don't follow Trump and his ability to surrogate for them is limited.

He will succeed, because his communication style is close to way young people use social media and very different from other politicians and journalists. When young people see his messages, they see that "he talks like us", which is a sharp contrast from his opponents who talk "like adults": scripted, careful, sterile. The point is that even if they are diehard liberals, they acknowledge that "he posted a dumb meme to troll people he doesn't like". Journalists and Democrats who want to frame it as a threat of violence appear as out of touch and old. Even a young Hillary volunteer who sees Trump as Hitler second coming considers the reply of the de facto leader of the Democrats "doesn't get it":
Even if they keep hating Trump, they become demotivated, stay at home or vote third party as they'll see the Democrats as hopelessly outdated and "not cool".

On the other hand, the Trump supporter youth are jubilant. Their subreddit "the_donald" has 442K subscribers and they are exactly like you'd expect redditors: spreading dumb memes. The fact that the president retweeted one of them is beyond their wildest dreams: the nerds, outcasts, social media trolls consider themselves validated. Their activism will just grow after this. I believe they will be a volunteer army for Trump in the real world. They already are on the internet, engaging in debates, sharing news and propaganda (their term: "delivering red pill").

If Trump wins the young vote, he'll win landslide. The remaining parts of the Obama coalition is way too small to even come close to being competitive.


Update: just 2 days after I wrote this, CNN presented the perfect illustration to my point. They thought it's a good idea to track down and threaten to dox the original creator of the tweeted meme (who seems to be 15 years old). Besides this being a crime (just like demanding money to keep dirty secrets secret), Reddit and 4chan exploded, doxed a bunch of CNN employees (doxing is not a crime, just like telling dirty secrets, blackmailing with them is) and wowed to make as many CNN memes as possible. As a result, #CNNBlackmail became top trending.

For young people who can't imagine what they were thinking: since they have no idea how the internet culture works, from the fact that the President referenced his "artwork", they assumed that "HanAssholeSolo" is an important conservative author like Ann Coulter and they thought that by destroying his credibility and silencing him, they cause serious damage to the intellectual background of Trump.

On the other hand the Trump team instantly understood what's going on and got on it fast:

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

The error you are making is the demographics of reddit.

The reason they call it redpilling is because, well, there is a strong overlap between the people who initiated thedonald and r/theredpill, as well as overlap from MGTOW and incels.

The demographics of reddit may include many younger people, yes, but much like 4chan, it also includes those in the 25-34 demographic, and, a sizeable chunk of 34-50 year olds.

dobablo said...

In general, people turn more right wing as they get older. It is a long established trend.
The recent UK elections had huge jump in youth turnout (went from 45% to 75% turnout) and that section of the electorate swung hard-Left (https://www.ft.com/content/dac3a3b2-4ad7-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b?mhq5j=e1).
Hillary fell short in the 2016 young vote mostly because it was heavily pro-Bernie and she was seen as a political pragmatist instead of liberal. Trump's memes energize his own core support but have minimal impact on his opposition (I think that is the rule with most politics these days).
Trump will be doing very well if he can get the youth gap to below 20% and I can only see that happening if he can make young-liberals stay at home. On the other-hand, the Democrats will be wanting a cadre of Young Turks to consolidate the Bernie fans. Their success will be seen with improved results in down-card elections.

Yaggle said...

I think you are correct, however I am not sure Trump will really want to win the presidency again. His large ego may sway him to go back to his easy life of everybody doing whatever he says and relaxing whenever he wants to, but it that ego may motivate him to ignore that and become president for 4 more years. Generally the Democratic party still does seem like a bunch of elderly mindset out-of-touch people who still don't really understand why they lost, which is too bad because I think the Republican party is bad also. We still seem to be a country with 2 types of politicians: Ones who help the poorest and ones who help the richest.

Gevlon said...

@Dobablo: you miss the governing force of the youth (it's easy, we're old): peers. What "everyone else does" is what they do, may that be smoking weed, getting into unsafe sex or voting. I dare to say that 90% of this generation has no own opinion on anything and just follow the trendsetters.

The energized and loud Trump youth will drag the apolitical masses with them in absence of energized and loud Democrat youth. Imagine a Facebook group with 5 Trump fans, 5 Dems and 90 socials bouncing cat pictures. The Trump fans will engage in politics and link "migrants raped festival goers" posts, Lauren videos, memes about Pelosi calling Trump "Bush", while the Dems won't engage, but "whatever" as they aren't engaged enough to risk social rejection which is always a risk when you tell anything controversial.

Who will energize the Dems? Cryin' Chuck? San Fran Nan (she'll be over 80 and never energized anyone in the last 30 years)? Tom Perez? (can you quote anything from that guy?) The only person in that party who seems to have "fire" is Pocahontas, but she'll never be on the ticket because the donors hate her consumer protection which makes it harder for them to steal from the people. Bernie can't run again, both for being almost 80 and because his wife will likely be in jail.

If you think the Dems can win the young vote, please name one "rock star" leader!

Steve said...

Kamala Harris could be that rock star leader.

Slawomir Chmielewski said...

Dems win the young vote cause the education system trains them to believe in Dem bullshit. And it's getting worse, not better.

Also, women vote Dems cause it's beneficial for them (short term).

Any young vote swayed to Trump will be outnumbered by Republican votes dying of old age.

In my estimation, this was the last election where Republicans had any chance. The "liberals" will clamp on the media (including YouTube and Facebook) so hard that average American will not hear a single positive thing about Trump in the next 4 years. You may think that there is plenty of true info on the Internet but it is only available to those who search for it. "Liberals" don't need an army of censors, they already have FB, YT and Google. A little adjustment to their algorithms and 90% of people who don't care about politics enough to dig deeper will simply vote whatever they are told.

You might have heard about the recent billion euro penalty for Google for removing competing products from its search results. On average, competing products were presented on the 4th page of the results. Now type "Trump" into Google search and look at it. I just went through 4 pages and apart from links to Trump's own Twitter and FB pages, EACH AND EVERY ONE OF LINKS WAS TO A WEBSITE WITH NEGATIVE PORTRAYAL OF TRUMP, most of them to mainstreem media like HuffPo and Guardian. Even on Trump's own Twitter account, all the negative responses are always on top and positive ones are removed. A few years of this and most people will believe that Trump is, indeed, the next incarnation of Hitler.

Gevlon said...

@Steve: possible. However she entered high office only in 2016 and previously as Attorney General she wasn't friendly to banks, so I doubt she gets campaign money and even if she does, she will be most likely sabotaged by the DNC like Bernie. Being a Democrat is hard, because you are supposed to campaign for the oppressed while your money comes from the oppressors.

@Slawomir: "the Republicans will die out next election" is a theme for the last 30 years. What the liberals keep missing is that while old Reps die and young Dems enter, in the same time some young Dems turn middle aged, pay taxes, get families, therefore become Reps.

I have no doubt that cursory search for politics provide heavily biased results. What I'm talking about is someone's own niece or cousin or coworker or WoW raid mate will be an enthusiast Trump supporter and advocate in his personal feed that his friends follow.

Slawomir Chmielewski said...

My entire point is that in a few years people will be too scared to say anything positive about Trump.

All you have to do is a simple algorithm in FB:
1. Identify SJWs or even just "liberals"
2. Identify Republicans
3. Make sure that whenever a Republican posts the SJWs see it before other Republicans and have a couple minutes to call him a fascist. Then the other Republicans will not have the balls to argue the point.

People are cowards by nature even more than they are slackers.

Adam said...

It's pure deflect and distraction. While the MSM goes crazy over a tweet here and a tweet there, Trump is quietly putting more bills through congress and signing more exec orders than any president before him.

He has the media wrapped around his finger. The more attention that they give him, the stronger he becomes, and the weaker they become. And they know it but they can't stop. Trump is the troll par excellence and it's natural to him. He doesn't even have to think about it. He doesn't plan this stuff out, he just does because it is what he does.

He is like some epic random mob-boss that came on the scene when the MSM thought that they had already cleared the raid, and the more they fight him the stronger he becomes. CNN and the other media morons are addicted to the viewer numbers that Trump gives them, so they cannot stop playing him. The New York Times, once a respected bastion of journalistic integrity, now seems like some high school freshman who somehow became editor of the school newspaper and is now using it to get back at all the mean kids who kicked sand in his face. There is no recovery from this.

Because Trump is the king of the mean kids who kicked sand in your face, and the more that they scream and cry, the more he laughs and kicks sand in their direction once again.

And all the while he is quietly getting on with the tasks that he promised folks that he would do once he was president. That is what is going to win him the next election.

Gevlon said...

@Slawomir: people are cowards ALONE. When they have social support, they are literally ready to blow themselves up. And the reddit, Trumpist forums, Trump rallies fill them with "we are legion" feeling, making them immune to social pressure from OUTSIDE people, just like Goons are immune to miners shaming them. They actually consider it "miner tears" and the Trumpists will consider "called fascist" SJW tears.

Anonymous said...

I think the algorithms are very powerful, as Slawomir described. The real genius in fighting back against them is employed by people like Alex Jones. People get a chuckle at him ranting about the globalists are turning the frogs gay. They tune in for more "ironic laughs" and realize he's actually right about a lot of things. Including the gay frogs.

Slawomir Chmielewski said...

@Gevlon
Again, that's my point. The media, FB, YT and Google will create an impression for all those people that they are alone. They will sit quietly and never speak up. The rare few brave enough will be quarantined from the general population exactly the way it's being done now.
The only cases published in the media will be people who are successfully destroyed by the witch hunts. You will not find any story about Jordan Peterson in mainstream media (with maybe the occasional condemnation) but there are plenty of stories of people like him who were less successful, lost their careers and social lives.

Gevlon said...

@Slawomir: read the update of the post. The media just published a successful witch hunt. It didn't work out too well for them though: https://twitter.com/hashtag/CNNblackmail

Azuriel said...

Regarding your update, did you even read the article? He isn't 15, he's a middle-aged troll pissing himself over the fact that his racist, anti-Semitic memes could get him fired from work. He has since nuked his account, but the ADL has some screenshots.

And, really, this sort of thing is precisely why your prediction will fail. Setting aside whether or not memes are the preferred communication method of young voters, the bigoted noise coming out of the Right vastly drowns out any sort of coherent, rational signal that might exist. Do you not see the parallels with the meme culture in EVE? When there is no self-policing, all it takes is a few people to turn an entire community toxic.

maxim said...

lol @ update
This was the media's game to lose, so they went and lost it -.-
Truly, one should never underestimate stupidity

Gevlon said...

@Azuriel: your source of age is just as bad as mine. Also, it's totally irrelevant. He can be 99 years old, everyone who passes around the "15" will be still outraged at CNN. Also, CNN had no reason to blackmail him. They could just dox him and let him burn and probably no one cared. The reason why they blackmailed is that they had no idea about the internet and thought that a forced apology will change the public perception (just like if you could force Ann Coulter to recant on her Trump support would hurt Trump among the middle aged voters).

@Maxim: it wasn't their game at all. Someone made a stupid meme about CNN. Anyone with brain would have answered "lol". Can you imagine me going after a Goon making a stupid gif of me?! Instead, they went all out on that guy, turning hundreds of thousands of LEFTIST redditors against themselves.