Greedy Goblin

Sunday, December 4, 2016

Weekend minipost: Trump is "clueless again"

This time the newly elected US president "failed" by receiving a call from the president of Taiwan, which is against the policy of "One China". Then "naively" he tweeted "Interesting how the U.S. sells Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call."

I see two options:
  1. He is an idiot who has no idea about the US policy on China and doesn't understand the difference between unofficial arms deals and official relations.
  2. He is trying to start a trade war with China which was his major campaign promise using a morally unquestionable act that will provoke China to hit first.
Of course everyone goes with #1, since Donald has obviously no clue about nothing. After all pulling the impossible feat of winning a US presidential election as a total outsider, without party support against total media consensus, is a clear proof of being an idiot.

15 comments:

Unknown said...

And yet most mainstream media are stating HE made the call to Taiwan, even to the point that fucking Dan Rather himself is making full on commentary on Trump calling Tawain!!

Eaten by a Grue said...

Being a smart political operative, which we can certainly say that Trump was, does not mean he is smart at actual policy decisions.

Smokeman said...

He can't start a trade war with China. China has been stomping the US in a trade war for a LONG TIME. Trump is saying "I didn't start this fight, but I'm going to end it."

I'm more hopeful for the future than I have been in a long while. Trump is what the US needs.

99smite said...

All the people who wish for an US-Chines trade war miss the fact that China owns billions or even trillions of US obligations. China basically financed the US economy for years.
What would happen if China just kindly asked the US government to pay at least a few billion USD in interest?
This "trade war" would be a very short one and one that the USA could never possibly win...
This is what you get when you let capitalism loose and unregulated. They make poor deals with the trade competitors in order to uphold a dead system instead of fixing a system. Of course, fixing the system would mean a decrease of profits for a given period of time and capitalists can't have that...
Then what you get is what you have in the USA:
Poor people violently shooting each other over scraps that the rich class let's them have...

Trump might be uneducated and an idiot, but he is not stupid. He did what he did for a reason and all the talk of trade wars with china is only propaganda for the masses who voted for him.

Gevlon said...

@99smite: the US can go default and refuse to pay any outside loan and loaners can't do crap. Not because they can't foreclose the US, but because they couldn't do crap to Cyprus and Greece either. Actually Trump already mentioned this: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2016/may/16/closer-look-donald-trumps-comments-about-refinanci/

Raziel Walker said...

I suggest people start reading Scott Adams blog to gain an understanding of Trump.
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/153990140846/trump-and-the-taiwan-call

If you look at this situation through the filter of a Master Persuader, it makes perfect sense. Trump is “setting the table” for future negotiations with China. He just subtracted something from China’s brand that they value, and later he will negotiate with them to maybe give it back in some fashion. Probably in return for some trade concessions.

And look at the brilliance of China’s diplomatic response. Their Foreign Minister labelled the phone call, "a shenanigan by the Taiwan side.“

Anonymous said...

> What would happen if China just kindly asked the US government to pay at least a few billion USD in interest?

The US government *already* pays interest on treasury bonds. It's a little over 1bn per day. Some of that interest money goes to China; some of it goes to Dubai; most of it stays in the United States and gets paid out to various banks and pension funds.

A trade war would be stupid and destructive. But please don't imagine that China could activate some sort of instant-win "nuclear option" merely because of the fact that they hold US debt.

Anonymous said...

A sovereign nation can of course default on debts and refuse to pay, but it does extensive and lasting economic damage if it's done, which is why it almost never happens.

Gevlon said...

Actually the US economy is strong enough to fully finance the US debt from domestic sources. So Trump can partially default, not paying any foreign debt, while paying domestic debts, forcing foreign debtors to sell their debt to US citizens at a large discount.

99smite said...

Actually, you are wrong, Gevlon, if the US would refuse to pay, no foreign country would buy US bonds. Same happened to Cyprus and Greece. That they still received money was due to a silly political decision, which was and is and will always be wrong.
If a state cannot operate within the limits of the tax income, let it rot. Apply free markets in such cases, as well as there should have been with Goldman Sachs and all the other banks...

As long as investors are convinced that they are getting a good deal, they will give money to the US, once they doubt it and they will doubt it when investors won't get their money back, they won't spend a dime anymore...

Anonymous said...

What makes you think Donald Trump didn't have full Party support?

Fox News spent the entire primary season blasting Donald Trump, but when Roger Ailes left Fox he somehow ended up working for the Trump Campaign. Mitt Romney came out and blasted Trump's business Record, but now it looks like he's going to be secretary of state. Reince Pribus was the chairman of the Republican National Committee and stated that they didn't want trump but now he's White House Chief of Staff. It's sort of amazing how all these republicans that didn't support trump suddenly gain prestigious positions or go to work for trump.

That's because they were always supporting him in the way the benefited his image as a Washington Outsider: By being insiders against him. They were working with him the entire time, because that's the image they needed to sell to get the thin majority that needed to win.

Gevlon said...

@99smite: the USA don't need foreign financers. They can operate forever on tax and domestic debtors.

99smite said...

@ Gevlon
interesting theory... And why doesn't Soros finance the US and not foreign investors?
Have you ever been aware that foreign countries may seize US assets in their territory?
Why did the US government ever go into lockdown if they could simply operate on "tax and domestic debtors"?

Anonymous said...

> Why did the US government ever go into lockdown if they could simply operate on "tax and domestic debtors"?

If you're referring to "fiscal cliff" and government shutdown events, then that's the result of a shitty deadlocked legislature. Congress has repeatedly failed to pass appropriations acts on time. Sometimes this is due to policy differences between the parties (e.g. whether or not to include a stimulus package; whether or not to increase the debt ceiling; whether or not Washington DC is allowed to ban handguns), sometimes it's due to individuals holding the whole process hostage for their own ends, and sometimes it's the outcome of a brinksmanship game in which neither side is willing to compromise.

There are plenty of people willing to lend the US government money. The US government is so dysfunctional that it's often legally unable to *accept* any of that money -- regardless of whether the lender is a foreign entity or a US citizen.

Anonymous said...

@Gevlon - What do you think about the Carrier deal?