Greedy Goblin

Friday, February 5, 2016

Skill injector price

Noisy wrote a piece on skill injector price and I completely disagree. He wrote
a character with +5 learning implants can generate 2,700 skill points in an hour, or 1,944,000 in a month. With each skill point injector holding 500,000 skill points, that means a single account can generate a total of 3.888 skill injectors per month.To merely cover the subscription price, the skill point injector manufacturer must charge at least 300 million ISK per injector. If the clone farmer is thinking long term, then substitute the actual figure of 3.888 skill injectors and the total to cover the subscription cost is 308.6 million ISK.
While this is true, the interpretation is completely wrong. This 300M + empty injector price is not a lower limit, but an upper one. The price will be lower, probably much lower. This is why:
This is the proficiency of my titan pilot in Ragnarok. All skills trained to 5. Which is great except I won't fly one in the near future. These skillpoints have no practical value to me. I trained them when I had very different views on EVE. I have several other pilots overtrained. My logi pilot can fly all carriers on 5 and I undock her once a year to fly a Guardian in Burn Jita. I have an all 5 on 3 dreads pilot and so on. I'm sitting on more than 200M skillpoints on my pilots that I have no use for and would sell for any price. We are talking about 400 full extractors here!

I'm sure I'm not the only one. Titan and supercarrier pilots can sell all their subcap skills. PvP pilots can sell mining, industry, marauders. Focused role pilots can sell off-role skills. Ratters can sell gunnery and missiles. Winet can sell leadership. Everyone and his mother can sell PI. If an average veteran has just 20M no longer needed SP and we count with 100K veteran pilots, than we are facing 4M full extractors on day 1 which have no opportunity cost to create. Sure, most of them will not be created on day 1 as people don't know about them or don't have the capital to buy empty extractors or whatever, but this SP will find its way to the market sooner or later.

This isn't just a stockpile I that will diminish once. My pilots are earning SP every day and I won't need this SP anymore than today. I run 10 acounts and train only 3 super pilots, which means that I produce 27 extractors a month "for free", since the opportunity would be to train skills I won't use (I don't want to sell these pilots).

I'm pretty sure that the full extractor price will be less than 200M+empty extractor. Maybe even less than 100M+empty until the dump is over (which can take months). The only thing that will sell is PLEX which people will buy to get their empty extractors.

There is another post for today, the 2015 analysis of Afterlife.


Zax said...

"Everyone and his mother can sell PI"

Only you cant sell PI skills, as per this post:

Gevlon said...

Because they didn't write the colony checking code. They'll do it eventually and then you can sell it.

Amarr-Zon said...

I think, you approach is slightly different than Nosy's.
You're sitting on a pile of SP you don't need. While Nosy assumed, someone is using this feature beginning with no SP. At least I understood it this way.
For me, it's something like 'I shot a rat and got an item from the loot-fairy I don't need. So I can sell it for nearly any price - most likely I'll make some profit.' vs. 'I'm an industrialist and manufacture some item. So I have to cover my costs (plus profit).'.

Gevlon said...

@Amarr-Zon: SP is a by-product (like the rat loot) of being able to log in. If you PLEX/subscribe your account to play for 30 days, you get skill training as bonus for free.

Amarr-Zon said...

In general, yes.
But for character-traders and in the future SP-traders, it's not a by-product. These guys will want to cover their costs (PLEX + learning implants (partly) + skill extractors + profit). Such characters are not made for playing, but only for the growing SP.
Maybe there won't be many of those traders, maybe there will be. I think, it depends on the prices in the first couple of months. Potential SP-traders will watch the prices and decide, if they can cover their costs or not.
I don't know, if the prices will be high or low. I, personally, am not sure, if I want to spend money on SP with a loss of 20 percent or more. And I can't say, how many players there are, who will.

E Dyn said...

I'm looking forward to seeing the prices of these. Not because I'm interested in selling, but interested in buying full ones for a few of my characters.

And to buy empty ones to get rid of some of the skills I no longer need or use (ice mining for example).

I'm sure that prices will be too high for the first few weeks. Or maybe they'll drop fast. Curious to how the market will evolve for these.

nightgerbil said...

I fully expect sky high prices at first as everyone attempts to cash in. Give it a few weeks to settle then I would expect reasonable prices.

Gevlon said...

@Nightgerbil: if people are cashing in, the price will be low

Kines Pavelovna said...

Ah OK I get what you're saying.

I have a full account production squad, 3 characters with t1/t2/hauling skills, each of which is "perfect" already. I do still have to pay to keep the account active, and I get 1 "free" SP training queue. I use this queue to accrue skills I never use, as they're not integral to my t1/t2 production; hence, it makes sense for me to dump those SP, long term, for below this proposed minimum.

Since there are a lot of people in my position, always able to undercut a SP farmer, it's quite possible, even very long term, that the max SP one can farm is an equilibrium point rather then a minimum, which represents maximum efficiency. Which would mean that the actual price of a packet could be way below 300 mil + extractor as proposed.

NuTroll said...

I think this will end up being quite a boon for me, i can finally make proper trading alts.

I just hope ccp keeps a database of what players have trained now, and what they choose to delete and what they choose to train with extractors. Should be quite informative.

Anonymous said...

There won't be SP farmers, and if there is, they will get burned.

Even I don't have much accounts but I have an estimated 90mil SP unused on all my accounts