A month ago I wrote how the immigrant crisis will end social democracy in Europe. Short version: socials preach that we must help the poor. This was always stupid, but wasn't catastrophic as most people in Europe were hard-working who could be taxed to support the welfare of the poor minority. Now awful lot of poor and unemployable (illiterate, culturally incompatible, not speaking the local language) people are swarming to Europe, turning the worker:leech ratio upside down, leading us to bankruptcy if we try to keep the old social systems.
There are two ways to prevent it: one is stopping social transfers to leeches (meritocratic solution), which case the incoming people can try their luck and find their fortune if they can work or starve if they fail, equally as locals. The other is keeping strangers out (Nazi solution) which can keep the current status quo (only local leeches on local taxpayers).
I predicted that in absence of the first solution, the second will gain support. I didn't see this happening so fast:
There are two ways to prevent it: one is stopping social transfers to leeches (meritocratic solution), which case the incoming people can try their luck and find their fortune if they can work or starve if they fail, equally as locals. The other is keeping strangers out (Nazi solution) which can keep the current status quo (only local leeches on local taxpayers).
I predicted that in absence of the first solution, the second will gain support. I didn't see this happening so fast:
37 comments:
what about the third solution - stop exploiting 2nd and third world countries, so their people do not have a reason to flee suboptimal living conditions?
because, cutting down on welfare will have crime rates rise and building a fence will be very expensive.
The Greens gained. Yay Greens!
The migrant crisis has hit Austria very hard with border checks put in place, overcrowding on the rail network leading to reduced and closed services and several motorways are now so dangerous the have been forced to lower the speed limit from 130kmh to 50kmh , all of which is causing chaos. The hard right has also been making gains for years due to people getting fed up with EU imposing new laws against the will of the Austrian people.
@daniel: I doubt if these migrants became illiterates somewhere on the way. I dare to say that they were illiterates in Syria. Which means that even if the French and the USA wouldn't be so idiotic to support their revolt against Assad, they'd still be useless for any kind of GDP producing besides basic menial labor.
In Norway, our anti-immigration party just bombed at the election, partially as a direct consequence of the refugee crisis.
In belgium (Near france, netherlands) the support for right wings was already growing due to the fear of religious zealots.
Stuff like Charlie Hebdo causes spikes.
Now with the refugees it seems that the actions that happen here are mostly right wing orientated. With Socials yelling this is wrong we must help more.
Even if they pull and try to change what you really see is less and less support for fugitives and illegals. The problem I see is that even though this happens the social benefits are still dropping for everyone. While I myself believe allot of these benefits are shit and shouldn't be there anyways they cause a second problem.
If a social benefit (be it a stupid/illogical or just pro leech benefit) is trying to be decreased stopped. Socials defend it this causes the benefit to decrease but not as much as needed and the missing money? It comes out of other sources that are much more important. People complaign now that schools, hospitals etc start to crash down.
Social benefits are killing the peoples quality of life.
In belgium I do have hope. A few politicians have shown "Anti-social" behaviour. The socials call them unsuited not following the "social laws" that exsist. They say that those laws are flawed to begin with.
While I am not convinced by all the things they do. At the current time the most pressing urgent matters are best handled in the ways of economically minded people or Anti-Socials and as such get my vote (even if some anti-socials are just radically against outsiders instead of adding them to the workforce, but it is better to shut out good people with leeches then to increase the leech pool for the few good ones.)
Gevlon
Get into politics damn you!
You got my vote and workforce :)
Everyone knows that this is what happens, that as the migrants come in more people will vote hard right. What that doesn't mean though is the end of social democracy as you claim. The problem is that you are very black and white, you can't ever see middleground, which is where we will end up. As much as you cry about how useless they are, most people won't just let these people die, so whether you like it or not your taxes will continue to support them. We're a social species, and while you continue to lie to yourself about how you feel being anti-social is superior (clearly to make yourself feel better about being you), it simply isn't true.
@Anon: "more people will vote hard right" and "most people won't just let these people die" are mutually exclusive as hard right want them to die (or at least to go away).
Can't we force them to work for minimum wages (like shoveling at a road construction) until they find an employer who is willing to give them a job, or until they learn the local language and can become meaningful workforce?
What I don't get is that they don't want to register in Hungary, because they fear that then Western Countries will send them back to Hungary. But don't they want to become a good workforce for those Countries? They say they want to make a living there, so why would these countries kick back cheap workforce to Hungary? It's like they know they wont become a good workforce, or they just want to leech.
We never hear about the migrant, who registers, go to germany finds a job, pays tax. Where are they? I mean they say many of these migrants are doctors, engineers etc. Well I don't know any doctor/engineer who does not speak at least english or german, yet I did not see any educated migrant on camera lens, just a disabled girl who spoke english really good. A child was better at speaking english then their doctors and engineers?
Central Europe is experiencing something exceptional now admittedly. There are a lot of immature knee jerk tribal social emotions dressed as reasonable policies as a consequence. It goes against the popular narrative to say that immigrants provide more benefit to the host country than they take. But that is the uncomfortable (for some) truth. They claim less benefits, pay more taxes, provide more jobs than the indigenous equivalent. That is the UK experience despite what the Government would have you believe.( Some analysis presented by a right wing paper here you could consider http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11255425/How-much-do-immigrants-really-claim-in-benefits.html )
@Gevlon ""more people will vote hard right" and "most people won't just let these people die" are mutually exclusive as hard right want them to die (or at least to go away)."
Only if you believe the words "more" and "most" are the same. I very much doubt we will see many places actually going hard right, and if they did, many of the people who voted that way would instantly regret it. What you're seeing is a knee-jerk reaction, a protest vote. Most people still want to support migrants to a degree, they just want it to be a balanced approach, and protest voting shows that.
What it will end up with is restricted migration, where certain numbers of migrants are supported. It won't be meritocratic either. The ones that are helped first won't be the most capable, they will be the most at risk, the most vulnerable.
Tbh, lotsa countries will die out in not too far a future so utilizing refugees could be a big Chance to Stop the demographic downslope. Depends in how much effort is spent in trying to integrate people and how willing refugees are to make the effort - and that remains to be Seen, give it a year vor two.
@Anonymous: to force them to work, you need guards. I seriously doubt they could create enough GDP to pay for the salary of the guard. Also, young men of all culture resent low social status, so they will rebel against being pushed to the bottom of the society (shoveling). They will either become secular criminals or islamist rebels.
@Luobote Kong: it's obvious that migration can be beneficial for both parties. That's why the EU has no internal travel restrictions. Many Hungarians work in the UK and provide GDP. But they learned the language and got a job offer BEFORE going. They are middle class people who are capable of working. The statistics are about them, not refugees who go there without invitation.
@Anon: They disobey orders and attack police lines trying to stop them. Hungary can only stop them where a 3m high fence stands with riot police ready to fight them off. Saying "we don't let you in" does nothing, only police baton and tear gas does something. Which are already "hard right" methods.
@Last anon: not necessarily. Europe is already has the most populated land. If the population would be halved, we'd still be more crowded than the Russians, the Australians or the Canadians.
Afrika has population of 1B. About half of the unutilized farming land of the world resides there. Can anyone figure out a win-win strategy in this situation, when overpopulation and food chrisis lurks behind the corner?
Or maybe we should just keep business as usual, build a fence or two, maybe bomb smuggler boats on the coast of north africa. What could go wrong?
@Gevlon: "Also, young men of all culture resent low social status, so they will rebel against being pushed to the bottom of the society (shoveling). They will either become secular criminals or islamist rebels."
I never understood this. How the hell being a criminal is better then low social status. I mean most hungarians are bartenders, waitresses, cleaning staff etc. in London. Rather then becoming criminals they said they will clean dishes with a Liberal Arts Degree for minimal wages. Why dont they rebel?
Because why would they? You are not pushed into low social status, you can go and find a better job if you are capable, or learn until you are. Many of my friends in London are in some kind of education after 10 hours in work. They are exhausted like hell, but they know it will pay off in the long term.
Sorry I know you like to be controversial and I really like your EVE commentary but I disagree strongly.
Like so many, you have missed the whole point. These are people in need, not a wave of immigrants come to mess with rich Europe by choice. Given the option stay and die or leave and try, I think I know which option most of us would take. SO what if the are illiterate (has this been tested?), we are not exactly as educated as we like to think.
In times of need humanity should help out others, as we ourselves liked to be helped.
Yes I agree the issue has brought to the forefront the situation of 'us and them'... the have and the have nots. In this vast interconnected world we live in. It has yet to be acknowledged the deeper causes, the society we live in where the wealth and well being of a few is protected and maintained at the cost of the many. And I am not going to wander off into some communist fantasy... the society we live in is flawed on a humanitarian level. Our governments and leaders, and our industry are driven by short term goals.
Pragmatic change is required... that never happens... change will happen now or in the future and what we are seeing now is probably just a minor rumble but the cracks are showing... we 'RICH' westerners with our computer games and luxurious life (honestly compared to the majority of the planet we have it good in Europe) cannot handle being human enough to help out poor, illiterate and helpless people fleeing from conflict. We can do it in someone's else's garden but on our own pristine lawn...oh no!
Methinks we doth protest too much!
WATCH AND BE INSPIRED: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GX6a2WEA1Q
But discussion is good and I am glad we have free access to voice our views. Keep on rocking the boat, but preferably the EVE players community boat... :)
@Tsuhelm: yes they had to leave Syria because of the war, no argument over that. Then they left Turkey where no one was killing them. Then they left Bulgaria. Then they left Serbia. Then they left Croatia. Then they left Hungary. Then they left Austria. They are indeed a wave of illiterate rent-seeking leeches who want to get to the most profitable position.
The real refugees are sitting in a camp in Turkey, Jordan or Lebanon, waiting for the war to end so they can return.
At least finally an interesting question. And it is probably still a question. You probably do not know much more than myself if those who left the initial refugee camps are different from those who stayed there.
The rest of the article is still based a lot in my opinion on a priori unverified assumptions, like several of your preceding non-EVE-related ones.
E.g. the "welfare state" you describe where everyone gets a wonderful life for free paid by others, does not exist. Sorry to remind you that the vast majority of social benefits (apart from lifesaving) are dependent on many conditions that usually relate to productive activities. Only children may have some "free" (as in free beer) benefits. But maybe you also segregate children between morons and slackers?
I am very sure your blog would benefit a lot from a stronger dose of self-criticism.
'They are indeed a wave of illiterate rent-seeking leeches who want to get to the most profitable position.'
Will translate this into:
'They are indeed a wave of PEOPLE who want to get to the BEST position.'
Don't we all do this, given that we all strive to better ourselves... and in the world today to stay put is to be neglected.
Do you passively sit back and live your given role or do you go out and try to improve yourself... your position, your standing... your profits...
Now the impetus to change is war, they up sticks and arrive at a refugee camp... they can stay or go... they make the choice and strive onwards to that 'golden' land of Europe!
If Northern Europe was engulfed in ice (war looks unlikely but you never know), pushing us northerners to rush south to safety, would we be welcomed with open arms in this modern world we helped create? Surely not! We would be relegated to camps... but those striving to better their position, improve their life, for their families, their future would still try to keep going.
Would you?
@Tsuhelm: of course I would. And I don't blame the migrants for trying. I blame the socialists who would give our resources to those who don't contribute creating them (both migrants and local). Also remember that I do NOT call for stopping them at the borders, the right-wing extremists do that. I call to let them in and give them equal chance to work. If they fail to because they are illiterates, it's their problem. If they take the job of a dumb local, that's his problem.
this is one of the bigger narrative of our society.
Many of my friends in London are in some kind of education after 10 hours in work. They are exhausted like hell, but they know it will pay off in the long term.
Make sure you get some official paper with some grades for your time wasted. You know that guy that comes in Monday and has read 3 books learned two new programming languages and 10 new libraries all over the weekend and now we have a whole new -insert anything- plan/model/goal.
Yes your chance to get %+ more pay is increased. Goes hand in hand with losing sanity. did my share of 14h days on the normal and all nighters on deadlines. It took me 5 years to burnout. Ohh yes I have certificates and good looking papers for nearly every minute except for the lack of sleep. Did a bit more money sure but calculate all the learning and attending courses and it didn't pay off compared hourly to a shity 9to5. Also courses cost money good certificates rob you. No not every employer will cover the costs, sure fraction or the hotel but not all of it. Hourly I do much better now in my 9to5.
Working time regulations are there for a reason. Yes it doesn't really cover freetime, everybody is free to do what they want (are we really?). Even in 9to5 the employer encourages the employees to attend courses or learning besides work. I really don't care anymore the aspiration hamster wheel doesn't do it for me.
OT. Everybody who really thinks that they seek asylum because of death fear think again. And even if they want to do "good", they won't. They will make more than enough leeching than trying to get some low wage job. Sure the EU and the memberstates will reform their imigration laws. but in the end they still will live in paradise leeching.
OK so almost there then...
I do like that you are offering them an 'equal chance to work.'
At least you stand by your beliefs: be you local, native or immigrant same playing field (It never is, by the way, immigrants have to fight for acceptance in all cultures, there are always obstacles to integration.)
I am an immigrant, although one from GB to Denmark and later Argentina, and have experienced first hand the difficulties of adapting to different cultures and ways of doing things. I never did go out and take benefits, other than those provided for all. Education, water, infrastructure, healthcare, government, policing, etc.
Being one of those that believes in the social state and having never seen any proof that it is anything but beneficial, indeed Europe is a conglomeration of social states: all shapes, sizes and shades.
But the modern world needs to start looking past its limited short term future. We the people should start demanding it. The Human race as a whole needs it, and to be honest I am quite ashamed at where we are. The world could be so much a better place...
No amount of local politics will change the world... a new world order is needed...
For this generation I have no hope, those in the developed world born into luxury on the back of social prosperity but at the cost of an underdeveloped third world, and a damaged planet.
I hope the coming generations work out a better balanced way of LIFE. Human life is social and its future I believe will be based upon social systems to distribute resources as needed.
Modern technologies which are at the moment being used against us may one day free us all. Only the rich and powerful can process MASSIVE DATA, when we are all informed finally we will we be able to make the right decisions. So weirdly enough I have come full circle. Illiteracy, or rather literacy will be key to the changes to take place, education and striving to improve the intelligence of a population will start to drive societies. The under educated masses, kept ignorant to be malleable will be no more. Some kind of Meritocracy will be need to be developed but monitored and interacted with by an informed and active population. A population that will be able to think for itself and react correctly to stimuli.
Cor blimey you got me into the realms of Science fiction, apt for an EVE blog...
Anyway... to those in need, offer a helping hand. Some will abuse it but in general giving is rewarding, in all things.
@Tsuhelm funny then that investigations of the "syrian refugees" that were given free stuff in munich found that only one quarter came from Syria. The rest come from Iraq, pakistan and bangladesh. They threw away their passports when they heard Merkels offer of free food and housing to anyone who claimed to be syrian. I can't say I blame them. If I lived in a shit hole third world slum where I couldn't buy my kids vaccines or even an asprin and was surrounded by Islamic wack jobs who attack anyone with a machette that would dare suggest that beating your wife might not, you know, ACTUALLY be in the Koran, then yeah I would currently be en route or in europe. I'd have to be a moron to stay where I was born. I'd be crossing the seas through the storm and the desert through...sandstorms... and you get the point. But I wouldn't be doing it cos I'm in fear of my life and neither are these people.
They were in a safe country in Serbia. They are storming western europe because we are too generous and too civilised. We have forgotten what its like to know REAL poverty, hunger and fear. Don't worry though: they will teach us.
Or they left the camps because a refugee camp life is barely better than life in a warzone? Who knows what sort of gang, rapists or extortionists get free reign in the place. You seem to start with the assumption that they're all here to leech with no evidence for such an assumption.
Well... Duh??
That's the price you have to pay for trying to be all non-collectivist-individual. You lose ability to assimilate people properly.
I think I am trying to say, let them (anyone from anywhere) in and share our oh so 'generous' welfare benefits with them. Society will be richer for them... eventually.
That society is not able to do this smoothly and painlessly for all at the moment is indicative of the faults in the systems in place.
Broadly speaking following your points above, we are actually ALL leeches! (Why do leeches get such a bad press!)
Furthermore as governments get more restrictive with free travel around Europe (and the world) they are sealing us off in our own prisons. Westerners take for granted the ability to be able to travel freely to almost any country and place, slowly those rights are being removed. Unless of course you have lots of money, in which case you can basically live anywhere you want.
Sorta agree with Tsuhelm. With the obvious caveat is that this is not a problem that is easily solved and has to do with fundamentals of Western society. Essentially, an issue with Protestant ethics.
well as much as i like your post,it points out something fairly obvious
for relevancy i live with my wife in a EU country bordering Hungary which is also facing a bit of an issue at our borders at the moment.
There is a leftist government at power at the moment,and we have elections soon,its obvious to everybody a right wing party will win ( however i will not be voting for the mild right wing option i will basically vote for the most extreme right wing option,who are basically neonazis ) since they are the only ones that can be trusted protect our ( and EU ) border from aliens with soldiers and arms.
Anyhows before i got into a long post i wanted to ask how come you are now making politics posts and grr cfc posts,while giving little market posts which got me to reading you in the beginning? Do you feel you have nothing more to say regarding markets and isk making?
Wonder how long will it be before we will, once again, have to grind Nazi people into paste, because some morons trusted them a bit too much.
FYI: Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe from George Friedman is a good read, I'm not that good in history of EU countries, but this helped a bit to understand what's going on.
Here a speech George Friedman Europe Destined for Conflict
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeLu_yyz3tc
I don't get all the political hysterics and "Sky is Falling" stories in the European media. There are not *that* many refugees. It's the population of a city, I'm pretty sure the continent of Europe can handle that, especially since most European countries population growth is flat or shrinking.
Online sources are showing me that there are about 8M refugees. Which is similar to the population of New York City. Two-thirds of those people are currently moving around inside Syria, with most of the rest in Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey. So that means that the current number fleeing to Europe are less then a million. That's the population of Naples, Italy. Over a continent with 742.5 million people in 50 countries, that's not terrible or unsustainable, that's barely swelling.
These are people with skills. Some maybe soldiers and farmers, but other are lawyers, doctors, teachers, or scientists. They may currently have no job, few possessions, and are functionally illiterate in the places they now live, but that's got a permanent state of affairs. They can learn new languages, they can apply their skills in a new home, or learn new skills.
@anonym 16:29
some of the refugees might be potentially good workers and productive,but most of them don't even speak the language of the country they are trying to come to at this moment
there is simply a lack of will to help them,and even if you could help them there is little to stop more from coming over,and each next wave would be more useless then the current one
that is why there will be a strong right national socialist uprising in central european countries,and at some point they will simply turn the refugees back,like Hungary is starting too do now
@"sky is falling" anon
The refugee story is obviously being milked for political pressure by anyone who benefits. European ultranationalists involved.
That is not to say that refugees are not a problem, because they are.
anon @16:29
if you think so highly of this situation. please feel free to ask the US to ship them to the US. After all it is US Drones and US Bombs so one might conclude it's a US responsibility to help those refugees (since decades of US bombing in those regions. OK + NATO partners since Sep/11/2001).
But wait! Why are they fleeing at all? the US "just wanted to help Syria with the IS problem" .. yeah right .. bombs for peace? (they dind't ask Syria. They don't have any international legitimacy in this operation at all. but hey. US are THE empire so it's free to do what they want, what can go wrong. Obama + his living predecessors in Den Haag, sure, will never happen.)
You simply can't bomb peace into existence. It is that simple. To change our history of thousands of years of wars and violence over resources can't be done. We can frame it and let people think that it is all done for a good cause like "freedom", "peace" or "human rights".
Wow. Just wow. My jaw has hit the floor good sir...you are officially insane.
Here's a tip. Meritocracy, sure. Are there freeloaders? Sure. Not sure what you consider an "awful lot" of unemployable immigrants but I'm willing to bet that you're underestimating the abilities and the drive of many of these untouchables, as you seem to view them.
Read up on your history. And for some background, I'm a dyed in the wool, corn-fed Iowa boy raised on the principles of pull yourself up by your bootstraps and laissez-faire economics. Well that's all well and good, laissez-faire, but without balance that leads to pure economic domination by an upper class upon less capitalized and therefore weaker economic units of the system. In other words, Europe and North America have a relatively healthy middle class BECAUSE of social policies that countered pure capitalist exploitation in the aftermath of the Industrial Revolution. If those movements against unrestricted capitalism had not succeeded, those of us not born into the house of an industrial captain would be economic slaves.
You don't want leeches on the European system as a result of this refugee crisis? A necessary goal, I agree. Go ahead with meritocracy based programs -- work for your food, whether that's in a 9 to 5 job or as part of a government subsidized/run work program. Properly fund the people who are first contact handlers of immigrants -- language teachers. Help national immigration offices of government to be enablers rather than merely policing units. Help set these people up to succeed rather than watching them enter a foreign land, frightened and unsure of their future, and then not provide them the tools they need to thrive.
The idea that these immigrants are a curse is knee-jerk and lazy. Yes, unplanned for growth will temporarily stretch the boundaries of economies and infrastructure but guess what, life isn't fair. For them that meant a dead relative; destroyed home; cold nights on the run. For you it will just mean a little bit of ingenuity and a sense of duty to your new neighbor.
I'm sorry that your Syrian neighbor didn't have time to learn German before the bombs blew up his school. I'm sorry that your Iraqi neighbor grew up in a place where learning to be a doctor was a right reserved for those at the absolute top of society. I'm sorry that your new African neighbor didn't have the opportunity to convert to Christianity while she was busy finding food for her family. Have you EVER met an immigrant? Honestly? Have you sat down with them? Chatted with them? Been to their home? They are normal people dude.
And your Islamist militant jargon is insulting. Have you met a Muslim? I was raised Christian and was certainly intimidated by Islam when I was first exposed to it. Then I met Muslim's and learned they were just like me (cliche as it fucking sounds, just go out and meet some!!!). Many of these countries that are bleeding refugees are incredibly social and family-oriented countries. They take care of one another and they take care of those who enter their lives as friends and equals. Many of the most generous and amazing people I know have been the poorest I've known. So please don't spew your vitriol of the filthy refugees ruining your perfect European world.
There's bad apples in any society, any endeavor, anyTHING. In America, this whole time we've been worried about Islamist's and yet we've killed each other in far greater numbers and ridiculous frequency than any attacker has. To paint these refugees with such a broad stroke as "leeches" and "useless" is a great mistake and I hope you reconsider what you've written here.
Iowa anon
Insanity is a point of view.
The difference to Europe member states and the US immigration is doctrine. A very strong one. Ever heard of a US citizen that isn't proud to be a US citizen and live in the US as one. There are many subtleties to a migration process. "country identity" is one of them. Germany is lacking that. there are no proud Germans, to be one you will instantaneously be flagged as right-wing nazi. The only national pride is on world soccer cups, it is the only time where the flag can be swung and the national anthem be sung without repercussions of losing your job and social status. (Yes, we have "nazi witch-hunts" in social-media over here, right now. People with concerns, infrastructure questions and sure some with flat out right-wing stupidity get tracked down and lose their job over it. A very questionable activity.)
Migration to a US citizen is nearly flawless. after the process they know key points of the law, how the voting works, that the "western concept of democracy" is awesome, secularism isn't on the top list anymore but it's still there and very important. And get prouder and prouder of that awesome county. Now besides learning the language of one of the member states (EU doesn't have just one language.) sure you learn some bureaucracy and law that's it. since WWII to learn about a country and be proud to be a citizen of that country is a very delicate and sour topic. Sure the French are proud some others too. But not all and that is a major problem. just think of the past 100k migrants in the US that became US citizens and are not proud to be your fellow country men. that's insane and unheard of. Identity crisis!
At least Germany is one of the view countries that at least on a citizen level tries very hard to welcome these people with open arms. I helped in the Netherlands and Germany on my vacation time to get to know these people. And you are right most of them talk english or even some dutch or german and are looking forward to build a life here. Some seem skilled and I have no doubt that they will contribute with workforce and taxes.
Syria was a hellhole because it was full of Syrians. Afghanistan was a hellhole because it is full of Afghanis. All of the other middle eastern countries outside of Israel are hellholes because they are full of middle easterners. Israel and Germany are successful because they are full of Israelis and Germans.
Now Germany is looking to be half full of Germans and half full of middle easterners. History shows that it's like beer and shit -- when you have a glass that's half shit and half beer, you don't have a glass of beer with a little shit in it. You have a glass of shit.
Very few of the "migrants" are Syrian refugees. They are simply people who heard about Free Shit in Germany, and are heading there for it. This is the Free Shit Army invading, like America has been dealing with for a long time.
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