Greedy Goblin

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

No country was ever defeated by asymetric warfare

The title is common argument against my asymmetric warfare campaign against CFC. However there are two problems with that. At first, many armies were defeated in a war with serious guerilla participation, like the nazis in France. The French Resistance liberated Paris before the "real" enemies of the nazis arrived. The CFC isn't without "real" enemies either. The last war ended with these enemies capturing all land they aimed for. It doesn't include CFC land, just the land of the temporary allies of CFC, despite their effort to defend such allies. The difference of strength between the powerblocks can be shifted by asymmetric warfare to the point where N3 can safely invade the starving CFC.

The second problem is more important: CFC isn't a country, it's a video game guild. Countries - until defeated - retain control over their disgruntled members, video game guilds can't. Just because the allies bombed German cities, the people who lost their homes were still under the control of Hitler, they still could be conscripted to his army or sent to work in his military factories. Hitler couldn't care less if they were mad, so made little effort to save them.

On the other hand, a CFC member can easily quit CFC both permanently and temporarily after he lost several ratting and hauling ships and got "lol don't be bad" as support from his "bros" who also donated money to his killers just for comedy. The permanent way is what Hirr choose, who were disgruntled over something and left RAZOR for Northern Coalition. Corps, alliances or even individual members can do the same over PvE losses.

Temporary quit is the player simply not logging in or playing on a non-CFC alt. This decreases his future loyalty. He might logs in for a "titan tackled" ping, but not for bombless bombers or a station camp, directly decreasing the combat power of CFC. You must see the social contract of sov-holder nullsec alliances and their members: the alliances provides access to ratting/mining/PI space while the member provides his presence in boring fleets. Fun fleets don't matter here, since NPC null/WH/lowsec/highsec PvP groups provide that too, the unique selling point of Sovholders is using Sov.

Of course you can claim that CFC members don't care about ISK making ability in nullsec. Some surely don't. But we saw the ratting numbers and claiming that ratters don't care about ISK is stupid. ISK is the only reason for ratting and destroying assets takes this ISK.

If asymmetric warfare reaches the point where ratting is no longer profitable, owning space will no longer be profitable, leaving only those members loyal to CFC who don't care about land or only as bragging right. While such players exist, the ratting numbers say that they aren't the average members in CFC.

PS: keep up the asymmetric warfare against the Evil! Donate! Already 25B collected.
God Bless the awoxing event of the Goons.


Anonymous said...

Have you considered trying to get your message directly to the average Goon?

Considering the lengths the mittani goes to to sanitise his media of dissenting viewpoints, I'm not sure the average line member of the CFC is exposed to much critical thought.

Parking a cloaky alt in VFK or other similar staging system and broadcasting over local could be used in the same way that Tokyo Rose and Hanoi Hannah broadcasted to US troops.

Anonymous said...

Guerrillas work best with a home advantage.

You are suggesting guerilla warfare in away territory, and comparing it to the French Resistance (or any other guerilla warfare).

Advantages of playing at home in Eve: Easy access to your resources, spares, and blues, much the same as RL.

Has a guerrilla force ever won a war in enemy territory?

Gevlon said...

The average Goon is AFK in an Ishtar and doesn't read what I write. The only message reaching him is an explosion.

How do you define "home territory" in EVE? All the stations and space are the same.

Anonymous said...

1. Your guys aren't fighting guerila war, they are randomly attacking random people. Guerilla warfare has strategic aims.
2. It's quite clear that the effect you are aiming for isn't happening. It's been a year and the CFC is stronger than when you started.
3. You will never make ratting unprofitable. You simply don't have the manpower, the leadership structure or the tactical ability to pull off something like that.
4. The average goon really truly does not care. They are goons. They need a chatbox and links to imgur and they are happy. Neither of those things you can take away.

Gevlon said...

Yes, the PBLRD numbers verify that interfering with ratting is impossible.

It's funny how "anonymous" always say "it does nothing", without ever pointing to a number.

Anonymous said...

I have to say, at first I was skeptical (a lot of people thrashtalk you and out of peer pressure I didn't read your blog) but I guess your stuff is working..

The main problem is that the CFC still has huge CTA numbers, what can we do against that? Especially when we are talking about supers..

I wish CCP would make super production harassment more viable for dedicated gangs..

Keep up the good work

Anonymous said...

It's funny how "anonymous" always say "it does nothing", without ever pointing to a number.

Annonymous doesn't have to point to a number. Anonymous isn't making the assertion that this is working - you are. You have failed to provide proof that your efforts are making a difference, and the self evident fact is that

a) there has been no mass exodus from CFC
b) there has been no visible reduction in CFC expenditure
c) there has been no visible reduction in the CFC's ability to project it's power (i.e. people are still logging in).

You point to numbers without any context, or any actual evidence that provides a causal link to your activities and any visible impact on the CFC. Hell, you can't even find a dubious correlation between the two. You just throw up "3.3T in highsec, deklein by christmas, total goon destruction is nigh!"... I get you are trying really hard to be a propagandist, but it's terrible terrible propaganda...

Gevlon said...

Strange, in June 10.4M rats died, in July 9.6, in August 8.4. I guess it's irrelevant and CFC is fine.

Your point is that "until CFC is disbanded and all their sov is lost, you are doing nothing".

Anonymous said...

Uhm, you might want to learn a bit of history, of both real life and eve.

In real life the liberation of Paris through the resistance is a legend. It is correct that the uprising in Paris lead to an earlier liberation, as it caused general leclerc to disobey his orders and move in with the second armored division - which was the actual liberation.
The difference LA resistance made there was that they changed the priority list, and by that risked an extension of the war, just so Paris got liberated before Berlin would fall (which was the main goal). A pure act of selfishness, but neither did they actually liberate Paris (it was more of a stalemate till the tanks arrived) nor did they win the war.

If you want an example of an asymmetrical win see Vietnam, where the United States lost. You probably could make a case for several revolutionary changes in history (Ukraine most recently) but the liberation of Paris? Not really.

As for eve history, hirr used to be the main Corp of morhus mihi, like razor one of the main players in the original NC, however they, opposed to a lot of razor material, used to be real fighters, who didn't take the loss of the Northern Coalition lightly, and many of them never forgave goons for letting their coalition get killed by the Russians - despite them having always been there to protect and reinforce their goon allies.
When hirr joined razor drama was bound to happen, as razor is a happy little bunch of players who drink goon Propaganda with their breakfast, lunch and dinner.
Them not staying in razor was inevitable. It's a shame they didn't take the chance to cause a lot more damage.

Anonymous said...

Strange, in June 10.4M rats died, in July 9.6, in August 8.4. I guess it's irrelevant and CFC is fine.

Strange yes - but not telling. Have you got year on year statistics for the same period of time (adjusted for inflation) to prove that this is in fact out of the norm? Have you ruled out real life factors like holidays, newbie drives, etc?

And assuming that your correlation is in fact accurate, it still does not show an impact on goons. It would be like someone camping you on all your favorite items in the market - they could disrupt you for a few weeks but you'd just go and make isk elsewhere, or wait them out because you have sizeable reserves. All you have is 3 datapoints, it does not conclude anything.

Your point is that "until CFC is disbanded and all their sov is lost, you are doing nothing".

That's actually not what I'm saying at all. I have not once asserted this. I have asked for evidence that you (actually you, not just coincidence occurring when you spend money... and to my knowledge you simply don't have enough data to make this kind of conclusion yet) are having an actual impact. All you've shown, at best, is that you've reduced the number of rats killed in goon space over 3 months. Where's the proof that you have actually had an impact on their income? How do you know they are not just moving to PI or playing the market, or dicking around while they wait for you to get bored?

Observational evidence suggests that you are not having an impact. Goons are still fleeting up. If you were having an impact they wouldn't be. SRP is still being paid, if you were having an impact it would be getting scaled back (esp. things like peacetime SRP). If you were having an impact their sworn enemies would be seeing blood in the water and launching a full scale invasion - they are not. That's the point.

I'll state categorically so that you can no longer claim this absurd "only total destruction of goons" meme - I do not believe you need to completely wipe goons off the map to have an impact. I do believe that your extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence and that observation bears out a very different story to the one your "3.3T isk killed in highsec" narrative does.

Anonymous said...

Strange, in June 10.4M rats died, in July 9.6, in August 8.4. I guess it's irrelevant and CFC is fine.
In june, little deployment, in July more deployment, in august final push of deployment. You don't look at what is actually causing numbers to drop. You see they dropped and assume you must be the cause.

Arrendis said...

No country was ever defeated by asymetric [sic] warfare

If there is anyone who is making this claim, then that person is an idiot. Set aside the French Partisans, and look at what happened twenty years later to the French. Specifically, French Indochina, aka Vietnam.

The French, driven out of one of their colonies by asymmetric warfare. Ten years later, largely through asymmetric warfare, the US lost in the same place.

As for the Liberation of Paris - not exactly. Yes, the French Resistance began the Battle for Paris, but the Allies had landed in France almost two months earlier, and the Germans did not surrender Paris until 25 August, while the Resistance received reinforcement from deGaul's army and Patton's Third Army on 24 August.

Next, you say that N3 took the RUS territory despite our attempts to defend it. Again, this isn't quite accurate - while we defended it, N3 not only failed to take that space, after B-R, we rolled back all of the gains they had made. It was only once we no longer defended it that they took it from the collapsing RUS bloc.

Now, you say that asymmetric warfare can make it safe for N3 to invade the 'starving' CFC. It's certainly possible, but I think you grossly overestimate how fractious we are.

For example:

On the other hand, a CFC member can easily quit CFC both permanently and temporarily after he lost several ratting and hauling ships and got "lol don't be bad" as support from his "bros" who also donated money to his killers just for comedy.

I understand that you don't form the same social bonds that most people do, but I can tell you without any hesitation that the people I mock and laugh at the most... are my friends, and vice versa. It's a matter of trust. I can be harsher with them, and they with me, because we can trust one another. So, yes, we give one another a hard time when we lose ships stupidly... but that doesn't mean we don't support each other.

As for HIRR... 'disgruntled over something', eh? According to all of the principles in that mess, there were long-standing issues within RAZOR between HIRR leadership. Hardly the same thing.

You toss up a Vile Rat Day kill as 'awoxing' - but stop and think for a moment: Every ship that took the field was something the pilot was willing to lose. With no SRP.

So that Barghest you linked? That's disposable assets. The carriers that died? Same. All of it, disposable.

So yes, asymmetric warfare can definitely defeat nations. That's what it's for. If it didn't work, it wouldn't continue to be practiced. But asymmetric warfare won't make a sov grind any easier, and it won't make relatively negligible losses into some monstrous economic burden.


Arrendis said...

Strange, in June 10.4M rats died, in July 9.6, in August 8.4. I guess it's irrelevant and CFC is fine.

Nope. Sorry, that's actually pretty easy to explain. We began infrequent operations into the Delve/Fountain theatre in April - a response to PASTA engaging in - wait for it - asymmetric warfare, and the need for improved coordination between FA, LAWN, and INIT. As a result, BL and elements of N3 deployed into the area and began what amounts to EVE's version of 'so conventional it's almost boring warfare'.

On June 9, Mittens posted the Delve Deployment notice. During June, combat operations were on a fairly low burn, with some large set-piece engagements, but for the most part, Coalition-level ops were run by 2 people, on a schedule they could meet, with the rest of the FC corps coming back up to speed.

In July, many of the mid-level FCs began to spin up operations, and we began more concerted efforts to deal with PASTA, while simultaneously kicking N3 in the face, and blueballing Elo Knight. More active PvP timetables meant reduced ratting time.

Then in August, we ran almost 1,000 fleets, through Delve, Querious, Fountain, Catch, Aridia, and Providence. That's not including the work SMA, FCON, RZR, CO2, and of course, Vee and European Goonion were doing in the north.

Ratting numbers dropped in Deklein, you say? I'm shocked. It's almost like maybe people were busy doing something. I wonder what it could have been.

But please, continue to think ratting numbers went lower because we were scared of TRI/MOA.

Anonymous said...

"a) there has been no mass exodus from CFC"

how would you tell?

their reputation is so damn awful within the eve community no one else would have them as a member. its not like they will leave CFC and join another group. the best they could hope for is to buy an account or start a new one and join the new entity with that. more likely they will just stop logging in.

either way the death of goons isn't going to show in the membership count until they do an "inactive purge"

Anonymous said...

Well, the french resistance did not liberate Paris. Paris could be liberated because the German Wehrmacht commander refused to blow up Paris! Paris fell because D-Day took place and thousands of allied mechanized forces were landed in Normandy. Of course la résistance supported the allied efforts and supplied them with valuable information, but let us not forget that a lot of resistance members were communists und russian influence who even betrayed their comrades who weren't in favor of a communist post war french government. De Gaulle managed only by chance to get to Paris with Leclerc so that he could claim all the PR fruit and in that moment he was ablr to silence major communist elements in the resistance.
Basically the french resistance managed to do some assassinations and bombings which were responded to by the Nazis with atrocities.

Whereas the polish resistance in Warsaw utterly failed. The Russians had fun waiting in reach of the city and watch the heroic polish non communist guerilla combatans die, the british had to stop their dropping supplies by plane because the russians forbid them to land in their territory to refuel, while Wehrmacht elements crushed this uprising pretty hard. Poland was betrayed by all their allies while polish exile soldiers took part in every major anti-German WWII campaign.
Ironic, isn't it? but still the polish do the American's bidding as if Truman had not sold them to Stalin...
And the allies terrorbombing German cities made the poepl mad at the allies, not at Hitler! They had at most the opposite effect. and they had no effect at all in destroying the German war production, that only came when rail connections got destroyed and trains with valuable asset destroyed. what broke the German war economy was allied air superiority to a point where moving industrial assets become no longer possible.
Back to EVE: of course your campaign has an impact on Goons players. but I believe it is way smaller in the way of destroying Goons as we non-Goons might think.
Yes, losing a ratting ship is a nuisance, but please do the maths. how many hours does one have to rat in OP nulsec anomalies to refund a ratting ship? 1-2 days at most.
I can imagine that some Goons even enjoy your campaign, like, see how much the shitty pubbies hates...
Don't get me wrong, I am in no way opposed to your Grr goon campaign, I only doubt that it will be successful at such an early stage...
I even fear that once the number of logged in Goon accs goes down and N§ decides to roll into the CFC territory, this will trigger a all hands defend our Castle sysndrom where many Goons will relog and defend "their" home...
But it creates content and keeps poeple plaing. so good job ^^

Mad Gus said...

Leaving one coalition for the other is not really that complicated, if you meet the requirements.

Please, do not confuse personal reputation with group reputation. Group reputation doesn't really mean that much for the single player changing sides.

Understand that for a good 99% of null sec players EVE is just a game and changing side is not an issue.

Sure you will be looked at as a potential spy, but if you simply aim at logging in and do your things (in group or alone) life is going to be pretty easy.

thenoisyrogue said...

The French Resistance liberated Paris? What on earth are you smoking?

nightgerbil said...

Stop using Vietnam as an example of asymmetrical wins guys. France lost its political will in Algeria and Indochina, that's why they lost them. They weren't beaten.

The USA actually WON the first Vietnam war: the Vietcong were broken with the last gasp tet offensive, the NVA slaughtered in the early 70s and north Vietnam forced to the peace table by US bombing and Chinese diplomatic pressure.

What happened next though was the US president declared victory and brought the troops home "his legacy" being that he ended the war. So when 18 months later the NVA broke the peace treaty, backstabbed them true civ 4 style and rolled over the south Viets all the USA could do was watch their ally get murdered.

Funny how history repeats itself as we watch Obama be unable to send troops to the middle east to deal with ISIS as hes the one who "brought them home" meanwhile we just arm the Kurds instead. Err doesnt anyone else see why this is a really bad idea? no wonder Turkey isnt co-operating. The next Mid East war (of Kurdish independance) is going to involve half a dozen countries in the region and its not going to be pretty.

If you want an example of aysmetric warfare that worked try the Irish and american wars of independance.

Anonymous said...

Ho Lee Sheet!
Of course were the French beaten in Indochina! They were utterly beaten in Dien Bien Phu! 10,5cm heavy artillery smashed basically every trench they had dug in they clay begotten valley! No mor supplies to drop as no french held territory existed after a few weeks of shelling.
The french military intel swore that Vietminh forces were not capable of bringin heavy weapons to the hills around Dien Bien Phu. Hell, I would have made those agents the first to jump into Dien bien Phu.
US strategists even considered dropping a nuclear bomb on the vietnamese/chinese border region (Operation Vulture).
The french haven't won one single military conflict alone since their defeat at Waterloo/Bel Alliance!!! The had only excellent diplomats to make the most of it!
Even the english WWI veterans were convinced that the next war would be against these foul and greedy french! They even charged the english government for troup transport of english troups that came to the aid of the french!!!!
If England hadn't permanently sided against Germany, England would still play a significant role in the world, whereas today they are nothing more than the political appendix of US aggressive foreign policy!

And the U.S. were never able to win Vietnam, no matter how many troops they sent in. They were diplomatically outmanoeuvered when the communist block got a garantee that they could supply north vietnamese forces. So instead of dropping their bombs to supply lines they dropped the bombs over the jungle, quiet useles, but spectacular to watch...

If you want to see where asymetric warfare wa successful, look at the spanish french war under Bonaparte, or look at Iraq and Afghanistan.

Anonymous said...

Warfare in RL is based on deception. Always. So who benefits isn't always obvious (Winners can be losers and vise versa).

Most wars are asymmetric. because symmetry will always be the most expensive form to fight.

What ever is past down in history need to be taken with allot of salt. Power is something fought over generations since idiots build pyramids as their grave and covered the walls in their propaganda. So it's basically a tool for war.

Anonymous said...

Yeah gevlon, the argument isn't 'no country has ever been defeated by asymmetric warfare,'its 'no major eve online bloc has ever been defeated by asymmetric warfare.' the former argument is fucking stupid, because comparing eve to real life warfare is fucking stupid. Anyone who phrased the argument that way is kind of an idiot, and refuting their dumb point does not prove yours.

The only way to defeat a bloc in this age of effectively infinite cash reserves is to destroy their will to log in, and moa does not even remotely have the manpower to accomplish this. I'm sorry about your hundreds of billions (lol) but you've backed the wrong pony.