Greedy Goblin

Friday, September 5, 2014

August ratting analysis

After I've found that Dotlan keeps historic data, I made an analysis of the June-July ratting. I was looking for this data already, because of a project you'll see at the second half of this post. Let's extend the analysis using the Aug data.

This is the ratting summary, please note that the lowsec data was multiplied by 10 since it's much smaller than highsec and nullsec. You can see that Crius stopped the previous highsec-lowsec decrease, while it had no effect on nullsec ratting. But let's see the nullsec ratting, by regions (million rats killed) and by Sov-holders. A small error was fixed and the tables updated:

The sov-holders grouped by coalition, with misc alliances merged with NPC space:
The data is similar to the previous months, notable change is that ratting in Providence increased and that BRAVE also increased its abysmal numbers. NPC nullsec is still mostly unused. But the really interesting update is that Goons lost about 10% of their ratting and PBLRD lost 1/4 of it. Let's start with PBLRD losses:
As you can see the various alliances fighting in Delve didn't affect PBLRD, because they never ratted significantly in Delve. Their losses happened in Period Basis and now they are in Branch. By the way Delve ratting is mostly done in the BLAST and GSF Sov.

Now about the huge drop in GSF ratting! Someone offered 20B to Mordus Angles to AFK cloak and roam Deklein from the start of August. Unfortunately after 2 weeks the pilots started to get tired and the project was called after 3 weeks, so it actually cost 15B. I think you can find the two weeks when it worked, it is much more visible than the trading decrease during Burn Jita:
Oops, ratting halved. How much they lost? We know that in 2012 February, 32T bounties were paid. We also know that 85M rats died in nullsec that month, 196M in highsec and 6M in lowsec. In this August 130M in highsec, 8M in lowsec and 97M in nullsec. Since nullsec rats worth much more than highsec, we can assume that total nullsec ratting earns about 25T per month, making the value of 1M rats about 250B. This is what's missing from the bag of the Goonies because of their 1M overall ratting loss in August.

Of course the results would have been much better if MoA could keep up the pressure, but I can't expect a small group of pilots to do nothing but AFK cloak a region all day. But I have the solution and on Monday you can see the plan how to burn down Deklein to the ground, kicking it off the #1 Nullsec ratting position it keeps for several years. I told you that "VFK by Spring"! I didn't mean they won't have their ticker on it, but they won't be able to live in Deklein for sure!

Finally, these numbers end the "even an average Goon is as rich as you, you can't starve us out" propaganda. First, they used to make about 2.5T/month from ratting. If we assume 4000 players in GSF, that's about 600M/month. That's what an average Goon make. I make a "bit" more. Secondly, they are losing even that.


MoxNix said...

"Someone offered 20B to Mordus Angles to AFK cloak and roam Deklein from the start of August."

Very interesting. I've been looking for someone to do the same thing.

Talked to a few different ... groups about my sponsoring cloaky fleets going into goon space to kill and harass goons.

While there seemed to be plenty of interest in killing goons nobody wanted to commit to doing anything specific about it.

Still looking though and have at least one more "group" to contact.

CFC Grunt said...

And you completely ignore the fact that those number-producing ratters were deployed to Delve in august?

You should at least try to verify your data and look for other factors that migh've caused the drop. Like a week of round-the-clock ops in Delve.

Rememeber - a good data analyst doesn't assume things. You assumed too quickly that your payment to MoA caused a rapid decline in Deklein ratting - which is not impossible, but not confirmed either.

Secondly, you can't calculate average goon income by dividing total ratting kills by members. You may find it hard to believe, but there are a lot of people in nullsec that don't rat and still have income.

Gevlon said...

Post updated with PBLRD data.

Zyan said...

I'm not sure if this tactics are that good for overall gameplay.

"someone" paid MoA to do this to goon. maybe "someone else" adapt this for PL, NC, who ever... in the end we have someone cloaky in every nullsec system, and noone is ratting anymore.

just my 2ct

CFC Grunt said...

Well, it could be healthy by accelerating the rate at which CCP reacts to the problem of AFK cloaking.

Which, let's face it, is a problem. And no, I'm not saying this as a ratter who can't ~earn his mommaship~ by killing forsaken hubs in a blingy T3 or whatever.

I'm saying this as an AFK cloaker and a camper. Fact: this is a tactic that works from a strategic point of view.

Other fact: this tactic is boring for both parties.

Risk of ratting under an AFK cloaker is very high. Rewards, as rewards for 0.0 ratting usually are - unproportionally small.

Gevlon said...

@CFC grunt: you mean "oh noes Gevlon is OP, CCP save us"

The counters of AFK cloaking:
- having a response team ready
- ratting in not blingy, PvP fit ships
- not being so obnoxious that people choose to not play with their account just to inconvenience you

daniel said...

afk cloaking is fine,
and needed as long as renting is the major income source of eve's powerblocs.

but i do not think that it is a functioning tactic against an organised corp/ally.

when test came to delve, some time ago, to play with the renters, there were two kinds of ratters. those too scary to even leave station for pi hauling, and those shipping down to cheap ratting ships, and or ratting in a group.

most so called cloaky campers simply can't attack organised ratting groups, as there is not enough of a chance to not lose at least one of the very expensive black ops ships, with very little to gain in kb-isk-value.
neither can they freely engage single ratting ships. especially in organised ratting space, there always is a chance of a trap.

simply afk cloaking, without the ability to put out some real thread, is only working for a few days. after that, ratters realise that it's propably safe enough to rat again, experience then shows that it indeed is.
what does the graph of ratting-ships-killed-by-moa-during-these-days show?

10% doesn't seem much in a game economy that is based on giving the possibility to everybody of being/feeling rich.
in the same time, you created content for the ratters, they propably even had fun fleeting up and socializing, which by some of this games players seems to be considered more worth than 10% of their average ratting income.

however, your data also shows a movement from condi towards:

the sum of those shows a minor loss of rat kills: 19.8m -> 19.3m.

anyway, after test, who were mainly lol roaming, fun-talking in local, or trying to engage overtanked ratters in bombers, came pasta, and they knew what they were doing.
maybe moa isn't the best business partner for such activities.

CFC Grunt said...

A blops drop is in and out before the response team even warps to a gate. It's fast, because it has to be fast - any solid fleet will counter it.

Your pvp fit ship will earn you less than your pve fit ship even if you lose it. You will also most likely lose it regardless of being "pvp" or "pve" fit.

And, no, I meant by this what I said by this - that it's a broken tactic. One that I've used before the MoA crusade to great effect.

And it's not broken as in too powerful, it's broken because it's boring.

Gevlon said...

@CFC Grunt: I don't question that AFK cloaking is broken, but it counters something even more broken: Warping to safe when a neutral enters local. If you do that (and a bot does it perfectly), it's theoretically impossible to catch you.

AFK cloaking is the only counter: forcing someone to rat with neutrals in local.

CFC Grunt said...

Oh AFK cloaking is definitely fine. I'd argue that it tends to be more effective than it seems - especially from a more strategic point of view.

The whole AFK cloaking debate has been going on for years now. Truth is, it's a combination of local and broken/boring PvE that forms the base of the problem.

There's no penalty for abandoning your anomaly and no reward for risking your safety by staying on field with hostiles in local. It's a binary choice, warp out or die.

However, while it's a good tactic with strategic merit, it's also boring and generates very little content. And this is why it needs to be addressed - hence me saying CCP needs to do so (and, as we've seen on numerous occasions, the best way to make them address something faster is to break it).

Anonymous said...

@ CFC Grunt:
this argumetation is not valid.
while no neut was in loval, ratting in Nul is perfectly safe, so risk versus reward should adapt to earn far less than in a 0.9 system. rewards should only be raised when neuts are in local.

Because basically, what u r saying is: if my ratting activity is not 110% safe, i won't do it an CCP should do something.
Whereas if somenone said: Most sips are killed in highsec, so the highest risk of undocking lies in hisec, especially if CODE. or Gorgon Empire are at the loose again, CCP do something...

Well, this is ridiculous. AFK cloaking in nul is like wardeccing hisce missionrunner or miner corps. U only get lolpvp and successfully stop the corpmates mining or LV4 activities.
Should they get also a risk/reward adaptation?

It is one of the EVE myths that there is a thing such as risk vd reward scaling. That is plain BS and the people who cared to look into the game mechanics and behind the PR veil of U CAN MATTER IN A RIFTER... all know that there is no reward for activities with a higher risk... That is just PR BS to promote nulsec, even if the majority of plaxers prefer to stay in highsec... And that is not for lack of SP...

CFC Grunt said...

"Because basically, what u r saying is: if my ratting activity is not 110% safe, i won't do it an CCP should do something.
Whereas if somenone said: Most sips are killed in highsec, so the highest risk of undocking lies in hisec, especially if CODE. or Gorgon Empire are at the loose again, CCP do something..."

Ratting is never 100% safe, not even in hisec - and ratting with a cloaked hotdropper in local is almost guaranteed to cost you a ship.

You can either try to ensure your safety or minimize cost of your loss. Having bounces, safe POSes and scouts is an example of the former, using an AFKtar the latter.

There isn't really much depth to analyze and twist in what I'm saying. What I'm saying is simple: AFK cloaking works, is a tactic viable and effective against certain types of alliances.

It's also very boring for both parties if it drags on and provides very little content. Hence, CCP should address it and make risking being attacked worth it.

Anonymous said...

Well, if we assume that most people fill up their accounts with three chars and if we assume that at least one char might be a highsec alt, the aforementioned 4.000 members would belong to 2.000 accounts so that each account earns 1.2B isk/month. Which might be enough to pay a plex but is no income at all, even by shitty pubbie hisec carebear standards. If we add the PI income of about 1B/month per account, it still remains a poor result.
If that is all that GSF has to offer incomewise, only the poorest EVE failures would call that attractive.
I make more money in hisec and WH space! Far more! If I could get myself to flying incursions again (superboring) I could get a PVE oncome of 10B/month easily!
Either the average goon is too dumb to make decent income in Nul, which I seriously doubt, or the nunmbers do not match up too well.
Please, Gevlon, do a plausibility check!