Monday, April 14, 2014

Goonswarm Federation in Burn Jita 2013

Despite I had the complete 2013 Goon kill and loss database, I did not look up the last Burn Jita. Better late than never.

First I de-whored the kills (if X got 0.1% damage on a 100B titan, he got credited with 100M damage and not 100B) and plotted the highsec kills of GSF for the months of 2013, to see how much Burn Jita shines out of the average GSF highsec activity:
Something shines out, but that's not Burn Jita. Burn Jita was in April, not March. April was a pretty ordinary month kill-wise for GSF, barely above average. On the loss front, it was pretty significant, providing 37% of the total 2013 highsec GSF loss. Let's see the daily damage and loss distribution (lines are 3-day moving averages):

Oops: while Burn Jita is indeed the highest kill spike, it's not dwarfing everything (like the loss spike). In that 3 days (April 19-21, Fri-Sun) GSF killed 240B ISK, which is indeed high, but provides only 7% of the total 2013 GSF highsec kills. The 146B lost provided 21% of the 2013 GSF highsec losses. In other words, GSF had 62% ISK ratio during Burn Jita, while outside of it, they had 86% in highsec. Some gankers! They are barely better off than their victims, despite they caught some horribly overfilled freighters. This is what I meant by griefing them with troll freighters.

Some more statistics:
  • 189B kills, 120B losses happened in Jita, 26-15 in Perimiter, 6-4 in Sobaseki, 6-1 in Ikuchi, 5-4 in New Caldari and 8-2 everywhere else in highsec.
  • GSF did 51% of the damage of the 469B kills they got on, their biggest co-killers were: Fatal Ascension 44B, Tactical Narcotics Team 37B, SpaceMonkey's Alliance 27B, Gentlemen's Agreement 25B, Test Alliance Please Ignore 24B, Get Off My Lawn 12B, Li3 Federation 11B. Of course there were Burn Jita kills with no GSF on it.
  • 681 GSF pilots got on highsec kills during Burn Jita. Half of the damage was done by the top 88 pilots. The combined result of the bottom 100 pilots were 0.118B kills, 9.05B losses. The best pilots were: Dimmak Long, Shepard Wong Ogeko, Ke'Daar, Terminal Adtur, Ted McManfist, CuteKitten, Jenara Vaya, Meltmind2, BushiFox, Xayder, Stiraks, DarkSoul Z, Raging Darkness, ektony, Links Lynx, Captain Ichimaru, Major Lee Awsome, ORena Ishii, Etanoll, La Nidalee.
  • Top GSF corps: GoonWaffe: 80B kills and 51B losses, NED-Clan 22-16, Wildly Inappropriate 16-10, Bat Country 15-6, Eternity INC, 12-5, Thunderwaffe 10-5, Raging Ducks 9-7, Merch Industrial 9-4, Amok. 9-5, Kriegsmarinewerft 8-4.
So Burn Jita isn't an extraordinary event in terms of ISK destroyed, nor a massacre where Goons inflict huge damage with little losses. I would guess that the real purpose is to hide their highsec presence. Their killboard has lot of highsec kills, but everyone gladly accepted their narrative: we don't go to highsec, except in Burn Jita when we kill trillions. Lies! 93% of their highsec kills in 2013 had nothing to do with Burn Jita!

For the anti-Burn Jita people, this is hilarious! Goons advertise it as a massacre of highsec pubbies by the unstoppable Goons. For suicide gankers 90% ISK ratio is bad. 62% is just unspeakable. They suffered nearly as much as their "victims". I hate to break it down to them, but the point of suicide ganking is to destroy an expensive ship with cheap ones, not the other way!

Finally, shame on me for not checking it earlier, but shame on all of you too, for eating Goon propaganda for years. "Unstoppable menace from nullsec, destroying anything they want, especially your game". How could we believe it for a second when in reality, these terribads barely could break even against autopiloting freighters?!

Time to end this false propaganda! Come and join, slay these overhyped excuses of gankers before they bring more shame to the prestigious suicide ganker community!

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

As per usual, you overlook or dismiss many things in your so-called analysis.

For starters, the isk ratio is a meaningless number.

Next, whilst yes burn jita does yield a higher loss rate, this is to be expected given everyone knows there will be thousands of goons to whore on.

Next, you overlook the value of the concentrated damage. Higher isk ratio outside of burn jita is spread across multiple systems - it isn't a focus on the beating heart of highsec. The impact is magnified here - people who don't usually encounter gankers suddenly do.

Next, you fail in the extreme at understanding what burn jita is all about, by swallowing the exact propaganda you want to end. It has nothing to do with getting kills, hurting the highsec economy, gathering tears or getting a decent isk ratio - it is a fun vacation for goonkind. They get to chat with their friends on comms and have a great time without the stress of the sov grind. they do this for the same reason normal people take their families on vacation to the beach once a year...

Louis Robichaud said...

I think there are elements missing in your analysis to make it really convincing.

First, what the heck was that big spike in March? Clearly *something* happened, almost all of it in a very short period. I think you owe it to yourself *and* the reader to do a bit of research and find out. We the readers are curious (well I am) and if you want to defeat your enemy, you have to understand it.

Second, I think you also need to think about geography. I would bet that the CFC high-sec kills are usually spread all over the place. Burn Jita is "special" because most of the violence was concentrated in Jita or its periphery. If this pattern is not present in other CFC highsec violence, then Burn Jita is indeed special.

Lastly, you are completely right that a 62% isk efficiency is indeed laughable... *if* the goal was to make money. I am guessing that the majority of CFC members taking part in Burn Jita aren't in it for the money, but rather for "fun" and tear harvesting. I bet a lot of "bad" targets (like empty freighters) were attacked. If you see a lot of those in the data, it would indicate that profit indeed wasn't the goal. Also, a lot of the pilots are probably inexperienced gankers and made mistakes.

Anonymous said...

Efficiency doesn't matter when the goal is the amount of kills, and that's how I understand this event (I'm not in goons so I'm not sure). In such case they were above the average.

Gevlon said...

@Anonymous: so you mean Burn Jita is special because the targets are random people who would usually not ganked, since they are not worthy gank target? Definition of griefing here.

@LR: I owe the readers absolutely nothing as they paid me nothing for this blog.

Yes, Burn Jita is special because it's in Jita. But this way everything is special since everything is different from everything else. The question is why should anyone care if they gank in Jita and not in Niarja or Palas?

The ISK ratio is important because Goons don't have infinite funds. This means that Burn Jita can be stopped by nothing but troll freighters. I've killed lot of "troll" Retrievers (which had no worthy fitting), but it didn't stop me, because I had 95% ISK ratio, so I had to pay jut a meta-fit catalyst for that Retriever. If I had 62% ISK ratio, my 130B kills would come with 70B losses (-5B loot), which I clearly couldn't keep up.

Provi Miner said...

The curious thing here is the lemmings and other groups. I am curious if this year is going to be as bad as I suspect. The way I see it with the goons war dec'd by lemmings who base out of jita all they have to is undock and put a cloaky over jita gates and tell the lemmings which gate to warp to. To kill goons. I can't see this one being anything but a blood bath. Oh you still seem to ignor provi in your posts about whats wrong with null all the things you want to see happen right there.

Anonymous said...

Definition of griefing here.

What's your point? nobody is saying it ISN'T griefing. I'm just saying your analysis is dribble and avoids all much of the evidence. You try to claim it is ineffective because of the low isk ratio - which doesn't matter if all you are doing is griefing.

if your point was to conclude that burn jita is a griefing event...you didn't need to draw all the graphs and waste a whole pile of time...because you are making a statement which is not in any way in dipute.

Babar said...

Of course the ratio is going to be poor when you have to use high-alpha ships to kill freighters, you always have to use more ships than needed because of all the neutrals attacking and jamming you, and you have a lot of people with no experience in high-sec ganking with you. This is not surprising at all.

And 62% still means you do more damage than you take. You cannot outlast CFC in Burn Jita by throwing empty freighters at them. To start with, CFC are much, much wealthier than any high-sec entity. They can outlast Gevlon a hundred times if they wanted. Second, the ships seeded for Burn Jita are set aside before the event, and the funds needed are already considered lost. It's an investment with money they can afford losing.

It doesn't matter if Burn Jita ends up killing a hundred empty or a hundred full freighters. People are there for the kills, that's all. If you throw empty freighters at them, you're just giving them more targets, while at the same time just making them spend the ships they specifically put in Jita to use on freighters in the first place.

Lucas Kell said...

@Gevlon
Are these just the stats that GSF were on that you are posting or are they straight Jita stats for that period? I ask, because a lot of Burn Jita is done with fleets of alts, usually in NPC corps, which wouldn't show on a GSF killboard.

@LR
"Lastly, you are completely right that a 62% isk efficiency is indeed laughable... *if* the goal was to make money."
This is not entirely accurate. Part of the goal is to make money, but isk efficiency has nothing to do with that. KB isk efficiency only matters if the aim is to buff a KB. The main goal is to hit the main trade hub hard, smashing prices though the roof on quite a few things, allowing speculation on the rises to earn us quite a bit of isk. Isk efficiency isn't too big an issue there, since kills aren't all that affects it. Just watch Red-frog's queue status over the Burn Jita period. Shipping screeches to a grinding halt, even when they aren't getting killed, so prices peak.

It's like the interdictions. The goal is to halt the mining of ice. If miners choose to not mine in the area we hit (which they do a lot), that's more effective than ganking them a couple of times.

@Gevlon
"The ISK ratio is important because Goons don't have infinite funds."
We have at least tens of thousands of ships pre-built for Burn Jita, and far more funds than we need. And very few high sec guys are going to throw away a few hundred million per freighter to try to hit our efficiency.

And if you look at the math, it doesn't work out bad for us. You state you need 60 T1 catalysts (~2M per unit), but a freighter (let's look at the obelisk) costs 1.3b, then platinum insurance costs 320M, with a payout of 1.07B. that leaves the highsec player with 550m deficit, which means as long as we use less than 275 T1 catalysts we lose less. Even if you assumed the payout from insurance was the same as the cost of the freighter, it would still mean we would have to use 160 catalysts to lose more.

By all means though, please freighter troll us.

Joepopo said...

So, you are saying that an event feared by all in high sec is really an average day of war machine for our alliance.

I guess at this point, people should realize how null sec offers a much more dynamic gameplay than the rest of eve.

Dunamis said...

Aren't currently in position to take a look at the raw data because of work filters (annoying as hell), but is it possible that the March spike is a high-sec "farm" for modules and income to fund the Burn Jita event by the Goons?

There's a small spike in losses around the same time, so it could be possibly be done through a wardec to reduce losses to themselves from CONCORD.

Of course, I'm just speculating here, but if you've not checked it yet Gevlon (which I don't believe for a moment), then I'll follow up on this tonight when I'm home. :)

Anonymous said...

@ Lucas he did troll freighter you and you did nothing. As you said because he wanted to get ganked you didn't gank him. I still find it funny as heck your too scared of him to try and gank him. And yes his ships last year were full of loot to make the gank pay off.

Bobbins said...

@Lucas Kell
'It's like the interdictions'

The last one was pretty much a disaster for the goons. Hopefully the Burn Jita event contain the same amount of laughs.

PS yes I know the goons said the interdiction was a huge success however I don't even think they themselves believed that.

Anonymous said...

@Gevlon: "Yes, Burn Jita is special because it's in Jita. But this way everything is special since everything is different from everything else. The question is why should anyone care if they gank in Jita and not in Niarja or Palas?"

Burn Jita is special because it's in the most populous system, the largest trade hub and the kind of indiscriminate ganking that happens during it doesn't happen anywhere else in New Eden.

Dunamis said...

Forget my previous comment regarding waiting until I get - I found a way to get the data in my workplace. So, I started sifting through it.

Couldn't really see any patterns or anything massive for a while; then I hit the 23rd March 2013. Now, I've not been in the game for too long so I don't know a great deal about stuff in the past, but it turns out that there was a huge event on that date:
http://massively.joystiq.com/2013/03/24/eve-evolved-the-battle-for-caldari-prime/

Goons turned up by the hundreds in Luminaire to take part in the battle. Not sure what kind of income Goons would have made off all those NPC kills, but I wouldn't be surprised if it helped fund Burn Jita '13.

Apart from that, I couldn't see anything else that could contribute to such a high spike in kills.
Hope that helps, Gevlon. :)

Anonymous said...

Goons (and many others who usually dislike goons) have built thousands of gank ships for this (Several people I know built this years supply at the end of last years event, ready to throw up on contract)

Smart people make money reselling the inventory to those who have not bought spares to a local station (Usually not-goons people who thought they would get on a km or loot something, and got exploded.

Even smarter people know you can ramp up the charges for freightering during this period.

Who gets blown up during burn jita? The M&S that you always complain about, who are happily unaware that an event is on, despite it being everywhere.

Tell me, what is the difference between Burn Jita, and you ganking miners because they had bad fits (in your opinion)

Lucas Kell said...

@Anon
"Lucas he did troll freighter you and you did nothing. As you said because he wanted to get ganked you didn't gank him. I still find it funny as heck your too scared of him to try and gank him. And yes his ships last year were full of loot to make the gank pay off."
Yes yes, this has been said before. Repeating something that is dumb doesn't make it smarter. If you can't figure out why shooting a freighter full of shite owned by a rich player, and being purposely put out to be attacked would have no impact on ice prices (which was the goal at the time) then there's no point in trying to explain it to you.

@Bobbins
"The last one was pretty much a disaster for the goons. Hopefully the Burn Jita event contain the same amount of laughs."
Confirming, ice prices didn't spike, and we didn't make billions of isk. Oh... wait a sec. I alone made more than enough to pay for every catalyst we lost. If that's failure, bring on more failure.

Anonymous said...

Another non-event. Last night I took my Fenrir up there and ran into a guy who was multi-boxing nine Fenrirs into Jita. Sounds like the Goons need to work on their execution.

Subscribe to the goblinish wisdom