Tuesday, January 21, 2014

You just pay Marmite for doing what they're doing anyway!

I was always puzzled why the Goons reacted so intensively to the creation of Darwin's Lemmings. I mean they created a 30 pages threadnought with Mynnna and several Goon directors so frequently posting. They also outed RvB to be a Goon pet, ordering them to defend their POCOs agains a 1 week old alliance (I guess soon N3 alliances will ban their members from having alts in RvB, as they are literally defending Goon assets). Considering that the worst enemy of any project is boredom and people not caring, Goons should just ignore it and hope it goes away simply because too few people join.

Also, what's the point of such response? It's a ragtag alliance with little cohesion and it's organized by me, despite I'm not exactly famous for creating organizations in EVE. I mean, would you consider Lemmings to be such a huge threat that warrants such response? And even if Lemmings are capable of destroying all Goon POCOs, those POCOs aren't that important. My highest estimate for them is 30B/month, and Goons could secretly keep them via their RvB pets. Lemmings didn't even plan to keep the POCOs, so Goons could just replant them under the flag of a few different dummy corps which are not attacked by RvB.

So why is the overblown reaction? I re-read the threadnought and "you just pay Marmite for doing what they're doing anyway" and "Marmite is scamming you" were written several times by various Goon posters. These lovely beefolk informed me that I'm wasting my money as Marmite would wardec Goons for free anyway! This got me thinking and looked up the war data of Marmite against Goonswarm, in the game client (this is accurate data as coming from CCP) and found the following wars in 2013:

Since the first war was still going on on Jan 18 when I got the data, Marmite was in war with GSF only for 141 days in 2013. Counting with the 1.36B/day average damage, if the war had been on all year, Goons would have suffered (365-141)*1.36 = 304B more damage. That's more than what they lost in HED-GP (not all CFC losses were GSF). This was the reason for the overblown reaction. They wanted to crush Lemmings with overwhelming power not because they were scared of Lemmings, but because they wanted me to blame Marmite for the failure and stop paying their war against GSF.

Not going to happen little bees. I hereby declare that I will pay for Marmite's foreverwar no matter what, unless I stop considering Goons despicable (which is unlikely). Since the war causes 1.36B damage to Goons a day and upkeeping it costs 0.07B a day, I get 19B damage for every billion spent on the Goon wars. It is true that Marmite would wardec in part of the year if I wouldn't pay them, so my actual ROI is smaller, but you know what, I'm fine with 10x damage amplification too!

But it's not all. Let's check some other CFC entities vs Marmite:

While the ROI on wardecs is lower than on GSF (you can't beat Goons at being bad), it's still significant amplification. You should also notice how little time of the year were they under wardec. Assuming the same damage/day and full year coverage, the damage on these Goon pets could be over a trillion, and RAZOR (too little war data) and some smaller pets aren't even on the table! So I already sent Marmite 500M/week for permadeccing the renter alliance. While the on-paper ROI isn't the highest for them, as their size grows, the amount of targets they provide grows too. I'll increase the number of permadecced CFC entities as I see more results.

Look at the Marmite monthly damage chart (from zkillboard):
This is huge result from a 300-man alliance. But their weakness is that they can't permadec everything they want. It's not a miracle: They have 154 active wardecs, if we approximate the cost with 200M, that's still 30B/week! No wonder they can't keep it up. So this is where someone with money can make serious difference. This is what the busy little bee directors wanted to prevent.

Not going to happen! Also, look at this wonderful Goon renter. He lost more than all the Lemmings since the start of the war. On the other hand the entry of the 8000 strong highsec PvP juggernaut indeed had devastating effect on the Lemmings: we no longer have 99% ISK ratio, just:

We are also at war with Greatern Western, and have 2.5B damage there too. As you can see, instead of complaining over excessive bluing we just decided to go 90 vs 19000 against the horde. And we're winning. Join the revolution! Or you going to let highsec carebear alts have all the glory?

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

They also outed RvB to be a Goon pet

I don't know how many times this needs to be explained to you, but first - the RENTERS are pets. Allies are never pets in eve. That isn't how it works.

Additionally, RvB have a strategic defense pact with the goons over highsec POCOs which predates your project. RvB coming to help isn't the goons ordering RvB to do anything. It is RvB making good on a pact that they agreed to before Rubicon landed. If you attacked RvB, the goons would have done the same for them. This isn't a "master/pet" relationship. This is a fairly typical diplomatic and strategic treaty.

, ordering them to defend their POCOs agains a 1 week old alliance (I guess soon N3 alliances will ban their members from having alts in RvB, as they are literally defending Goon assets).


I don't think you quite understand how RvB works. And I don't think you quite understand how impossible it would be for N3 to ban alts from being in RvB. Perhaps (perhaps...) if RvB was part of the CFC they might have cause. But they aren't, so they wont. Too many N3 pilots (directors included) enjoy the "instant action" pvp that RvB offers. It is "fun". If anything I wouldn't mind betting MORE N3 alts join RvB because shooting highsec shitlords is something everyone enjoys doing.

The rest of your post is mindless dribble. Your Killboard analysis is dreadful (for a start, stop using zkillboard to do it. It is shit. Use the evekill api to get the raw kill data out and do some decent analysis).

"Goon directors post in my small forum thread therefore I'm winning" is perhaps the most hilarious nonsense I've seen you write...and that is saying something.

You are, objectively, paying Marmite to do what they were already doing. Marmite have basically scammed you. And you can't even see that. And that is what is hilarious.

You think you are making a difference? you think you can rid highsec of the goon menace? You have absolutely no idea what such a thing would involve.

maxim said...

"The highest reward for good work is the ability to do better work."

Marmites could keep Goons under wardec for half a year, now they can keep them under wardec for a full year.

Did Marmites benefit? Sure they did. Does it mean they are scammers for benefiting? No it doesn't. The missing link here is that Marmites benefiting - and thus doing more of what they already were doing - is the whole plan to begin with.

Also, believe it or not, "Goon directors post in my small forum thread therefore I'm winning" is consistent with the way RL politics work.

I accept, though, that Eve politics might be different, because Eve is just a game, and therefore Eve politics are burdened with paradoxes spawned from contradictions between fun and efficiency. "We don't want to encourage what amounts to highsec terrorism, but we want to encourage it cause it's fun!"

Rammstein said...

anonymous claimed: "I don't know how many times this needs to be explained to you, but first - the RENTERS are pets. Allies are never pets in eve. That isn't how it works."

"The term 'pet' alliance should not be confused with the renter"--EVE wiki--https://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/Pet

You're wrong.

"the rest of your post is mindless dribble"

Right back at you.

"You are, objectively, paying Marmite to do what they were already doing. Marmite have basically scammed you."

Tom Brady used to play football for free. Lady Gaga used to play music for free. Jesus Christ, the world is full of scammers, everyone's getting paid for something they used to do for free!

Anonymous said...

" ordering them to defend their POCOs agains a 1 week old alliance"

You are acting as if a 1 week old alliance = 1 week old players.

If this was the case, you would have a point.
The age of an alliance says nothing about the players in it, or their abilities in high sec. In null it says they havent had time to claim much sov, but apart from that, it still says nothing.

If all the null alliance leaders joined a new alliance, would they be newbies in a 1 day old alliance?

Anonymous said...

@first anonymous: you made me laugh.
A pet is any entity that is politically controlled by another entity. If goons make decisions for you, if they impose the agenda on you, you are a goon pet. Nothing to do with if you pay your rent in isk Or if you pay in workpower

Rammstein said...

"The age of an alliance says nothing about the players in it, or their abilities in high sec. In null it says they havent had time to claim much sov, but apart from that, it still says nothing."

Actually, it says that they haven't had time to establish logistics chains, or time to get accustomed to flying with each other, develop strategies, etc. (obviously individual corps could have pre-existing logistics and strategies, but it would take time to integrate them on an alliance level) This is extremely obvious and basic stuff that you have missed here, but as you point out, this doesn't mean that you are necessarily a newbie. You might just be bad.

"If all the null alliance leaders joined a new alliance, would they be newbies in a 1 day old alliance?"

What if all the null alliance leaders join forces to proclaim that an alliance is filled with useless newbies? Would you then admit that Gevlon had a point in referring to the alliance as being open to and incorporating some newbies, while laughing at the fact that they're still ripping goons a new one? Apparently not, because that's the actual situation here.

Lucas Kell said...

@Rammstein
"the fact that they're still ripping goons a new one"
See that's the problem right their, that "fact". In essence all that's been done is some of Marmites kills have been moved to a new alliance name. They still just camp the Jita undock (and buff their KB with 0 damage shots on disconnected dreads in HED).

So when Gevlon says "goons are taking X damage", what he really should be saying is that the individuals that can't follow the simple rule of not flying an in alliance character in high sec are getting damaged. Since they won't be covered by SRP, and it's up to them to sort themselves out, there is no actual damage to the alliance. So the idea that camping the Jita undock is defeating the "goon menace" is laughable. At the end of the day, Marmite, and the other high sec wardec corps do what they do for profit. Stupid people flying around high sec with an active wardec dropping loot for them. So he's just paying for them to make profit under a different name, so who cares?

And the fact that people are posting in a thread filled with nonsense doesn't suddenly make it mean something more. Once again, it's just Gevlon's simplistic and incorrect interpretation of the scenario.

Ephemeron said...

If the war had been on all year, Goons would have suffered (365-141)*1.36 = 304B more damage.

When you wrote about income from GSF moons and market schemes, you repeatedly made a point of dividing the amount by the number of people in GSF in order to prove just how insignificant it was.

However, ISK is ISK, whether it's incoming or outgoing. Therefore, it would be reasonable to apply the same logic to losses as well.

If we divide the projected damage by the current headcount of GSF (11927 members), we'll see that Marmite's permanent war will cost each member just under 25.5M. Per year.

Gevlon said...

@Ephemeron: quite true, this damage won't destroy Goonswarm. But from one person, it's not bad. Remember, I'm just one guy, it's unreasonable to expect me to destroy GSF all by myself.

@Lucas: it's true that the damage won't go to the Goon alliance coffer. It goes to dumb Goons who fly in highsec under wardec. However it's a safe assumption that they are the more casual Goons (hardcore Goons aren't that stupid).

If they are casual, they are likely to earn ISK by some low wage job like ratting, missioning or mining. If they would be running an 8-account PI farm, they would probably have a highsec hauler alt. So that 300B damage translates into 6-10000 hours of active farming.

As they are casual, their in-game time is limited. They can't just play more at will, otherwise they had learned the game enough to not fly in highsec wardecced. So they either fly 6-10000 hours less in bombless bombers or get their first Naglfar 6-10000 hours later. And that hurts Goonswarm.

Anonymous said...

Re RvB being pets: As you pointed out Gevlon, during HED , instead of rushing to the goons defense, RvB and friends formed a 500 ship fleet, including a few dozen capitals, and did the Ganked roam instead. We had our own fun.

Once that was over, the remnants of the fleet rushed to HED... To shoot at CFC domis.

RvB and the goons have a pact for POCOs, that is all.

LR

Anonymous said...

This is really funny. So basically if you kill a goon ship it doesn't really count because they shouldn't have been blown up and RvB has nothing to do with the goons expect defending the goons interests. Yeah....ok...

Anonymous said...

Are they really that stupid .. undocking from jita4-4 within none-npc-corp chars. Are you nullsec goons that poor not to use Red-/blue-/black-frog?
ohh man I love it.

Anonymous said...

I'm confused. Is your goal still to force goons to defend pocos in highsec by rousing the forces of highsec to attack their pocos or is it just to pay Marmite to camp Jita? Not that Marmite aren't good at what they do, but what they do isn't what you initially set out to do. These are two separate projects. How is the highsec vs goon pocos one going?

Gevlon said...

Goons can't be forced to defend their POCOs, as their RvB pets do it for them. So some adjustments need to be done. But of course the long term goal is POCOs.

Anonymous said...

So the project to rouse the slumbering forces of highsec bears to open a second front against goonswarm in highsec is basically on hold after it proved incapable of overwhelming the diplomatic arrangements goonswarm had in place? I feel as though a bait and switch has taken place here, that you speak a lot of the Marmite project and not at all of the Lemmings project in the hope that we do not notice that the Lemmings project is not achieving the desired results.

Gevlon said...

You're right that first the RvB problem need to be solved and it's indeed a diplomatic one: we need to prove N3 that RvB is openly a Goon pet. If N3 alts are banned from RvB, they either reconsider their Goon alliance, or simply lose too many people to remain relevant.

Babar said...

How many poco's have been sent into reinforced mode by Lemmings?

Gevlon said...

No point reinforcing while RvB is around. First thing first: grow and beat RvB. If I yell at people to go shoot POCOs with zero chance to win, Lemmings won't grow (nor take POCOs)

Rammstein said...

" So he's just paying for them to make profit under a different name, so who cares?"

and "n3/pl only are winning because CFC is self-admittedly bad at EVE", and "CFC only ever wins because they blob and diplomacy", and "ganking doesn't count because the targets don't have gunzzz".

I'm well aware that people always discount any result by listing the reasons for it; as every result has reasons, this is always possible to do. So who cares? Well you, because you have a strange obsession with making massive numbers of posts replying to Gevlon wherever he pops up, so if anyone cares, it's you.

Siim said...

So how are you claiming anything to win?

You cant measure something which is not responding you.

The goons dont play "high-sec game" they play "sov and null" so unless you do any damage which would make them loose their actual assets and not their dumb members assets, I really can't see how your propaganda is different from goons propaganda, which you are so eagerly against.

Anonymous said...

I applaud you Gelvon... No matter the outcome of your endeavor against Goons, the longstanding baddies of Eve, you're building up and strengthening the idea to fight against large oppressing entities. You're strengthening a stand, inspiring others to take up arms and at the very least, creating content to this game.
One man finding a way to influence others to fight against an Evil Coalition. Remember it's the Idea that survives and grows... Not just the man or rebellion. Much like creating an Idea of a Marketing campaign... If you can get an idea to stick with the multitudes, then you will see more growth and success in this goal.
It's a shame that you can't give LP Rewards for each Goon kill... After all they are pretty much an Empire.
Again, good job! Keep pushing the fight! Oh and no matter who says what... The fact that Goons are discussing you/Lemmings/Marmite, means that they are affected and concerned. Afraid of the growing idea to build All of Eve vs Goons!

Anonymous said...

While we are at it, war-dec their out of alliance freighter corp... I know padded helmet is one of them. Ask to your contact in N3, it should be pretty easy intel to get and you will start to get a lot of attention...

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