Greedy Goblin

Friday, May 17, 2013

Crashing Neocoms

About a month ago I wrote that certain planetary products are much less profitable than others, making them a loss in opportunity cost. I started making Neocoms (T3) using Silicate Glass (T2), biofuels (T1) and precious metals (T1). It promised 1B/month with very little work. Now look at the price graph of Neocoms:
Ouch! You might be tempted to say "bad luck", but it had very little to do with luck. An advanced factory produces 3 units of Neocoms an hour. 7 factories, 6 planets, 24 hours : 3024 units/day. Now look at the traded amount on the chart! Only 5-10K/day, meaning I produced about half of the Jita-marketed Neocoms! No doubt that such supply boom ruined the price.

This is something we don't see often in a player scale. Honestly, I did not think of it either, and paid with lack of profit for it. Sure, Goonswarm can manipulate an item, but a single pilot (no alts were involved)?!

The problem was that Neocoms isn't a common item. Most PI producers go for "all by myself" production, they produce P4 without buying anything, they extract everything and combine it on different alts. Only a few players bought or sold Neocoms, making it a very sensitive product. I've learned from this mistake, so shall you. Check the volume of the item before starting mass production.

Finally a business tip: if you are a jump freighter pilot who jumps a lot (doing it as a serious business), I'd suggest to use the training changes of Odessey to train the JFs of all four races, so you'll be able to switch to the JF that operates with the cheapest isotope. Fuel prices will be very hectic and likely to rise significantly.


Anonymous said...

So, isn't it was obvious? I've encountered that when decided to manufacture some T1. It was like: Hey, that item pays good, so I can amass it for steady profit. But wait, I can produce a 2/3 of daily Jita traded amount... Hmm.. No way!
Than I moved to T3, and that was great, but much more luck involved, also my companion didn't included revers chance price, so when I made that calculations, my enthusiasm dropped to nearly zero. Even with optimal quality component it slightly better than average T1 production.

ariantes said...

Gevlon, what skillchanges are you talking about when it comes to jumpfreighters? I was aware of the changes to the battlecruiser and destroyer skills and their prerequisites but nothing else.

Anonymous said...

It would take you a stupefying amount of time to recoup the investment in three extra JF with your savings in isotopes. Specially if you discount your future earnings.

Anonymous said...

P2-3 are nearly just steps to P4s, and so, they're nearly only traded when someone buys them up for p4 production.
Any mass production of PIs has to get P4s out, or there won't be the volume. (and then, one single account can swing the price of a p4 sometimes too, albeit not by much)

Von Keigai said...

Interesting to see how thin some markets are.

Another factor you are facing is a reduction in the demand for neocoms. Until early this month, my corp was mass producing P4s in wspace. Our demand was about 2000 neocoms per day.

What's the business angle here? Well, if you live outside highsec, and want to produce something profitable but which is also a fair amount of work, get into the P4 business. The P3 inputs are relatively cheap; most of them have dropped recently. P4 prices have also dropped but the profits remain strong.

If you have access to planets with 0% taxes (that is, via a POCO which you or friends control), then the profit per item on most P4s is about 200000 ISK. Even with Command Center Upgrades IV, you can run a planet with 12 High Tech Production plants. If you feed it daily (work!), then you get about 57m profit per planet per day.

Even if you live in highsec, you can still profit on some P4s right now. Broadcast Nodes, the P4 which neocoms are used for, are profitable even after paying the massive highsec taxes up and down. However I cannot advise doing this -- such profits tend to be fleeting. Enough people seem to know about it so that as soon as a P4 good's profits rise much above the taxes paid (192000 ISK per P4), marginal producers enter the market.

Anonymous said...

Anyone else started selling Neocoms in the last few days?, I.e maybe it wasn't only you but the blog?