Greedy Goblin

Thursday, May 31, 2012

May business report

A month ago I posted my first report. It was ambitious as I grew from 3 to 16 B in a month. 460M/day for a 3 months old character is pretty great. At the end there was a chart predicting that I'll be a trillionaire in a year.

Here I am again with much less ambitious report. The daily income grew to 580M/day. Not bad at all. But it won't make me a trillionaire in a year for sure. Also, the linear fit is almost as good as the second-order, saying that probably I flatted out:
However there are two things that suggest that it's not the case. The first is the missing points in the middle, that was a weekend holiday when I did not log in for two days (the third point is missing because I updated on Monday afternoon and I always save the morning results). If we cut out these two days from the chart, both the linear and the second-order fit become better, but the second-order improves much more:
Secondly the last points are significantly above the fits. My newest, yet experimental business is starting up, and I also started trading in Hek. While it can turn out to be a bump, I have every reason to believe that it's a trend. Anyway, I plotted the predictions with both first and second order (black and red) fit, with or without (thin and thick) 2-days correction, up to my first birthday:
Let me point out how perfectly these charts show the No1 rule of investment: little differences in the start make huge differences at the end. Those two days of slacking can mean 20B+ difference in a year.

How much will I actually have? Like with every prediction, only time can tell. What can surely be claimed is that the last month I made 17.5B which is about the price of a supercarrier. If I wanted to get the same ISK by PLEX, I had to pay 1.5x the minimal wage of my country. Maybe not stellar, but nothing to be ashamed of either. After all I doubled my assets in the last month. A clear proof that trading works and provides very good returns. If we add that I started to post the detailed results of what I was doing, we can clearly see that I'm not a single special snowflake doing something extraordinary. I'm doing something that any of you can do: even with the lowest prediction, have the cost of a titan in a year.

Of course if you love ratting, keep doing it. But if it's just a "must be" activity for getting ISK, start trading already!


PS: someone on the goblinworks channel suggested me that if I want to fly logi, triage carrier and Rorqual, maybe I should start my nullsec life in WH and not K. A WH corp could use a Rorqual much more and WH is less likely to get dropped by someone who just want a random capital kill. What do you think? Shall I consider that route?

The business report of today is not included in the chart, 33.0B. (0 PLEX behind for second account, 1.1B spent on Logi/Carrier/Titan alt)
Don't forget to join the goblinworks channel to discuss trading and industrial ideas and laugh on the morons of the day (50-80 people on peak hours).

11 comments:

evemonkey said...

Wormhole space definitely teaches you paranoia, a necessary trait for 0.0. I have spent 3 months in a wormhole when they first came out and made a smegload of isk when they came out, but I left because there is only so much scanning that you can do before you get carpal tunnel in your mouse finger. That and the profit ratio started dropping as more people moved into wormholes.

Having been in both wormholes and in both North and South nullsec, I would highly recommend starting out in a proper nullsec corporation. Find one where they have a decent Industrial backbone. most nullsec alliances do as they buy minerals from their members to assist providing replacement ships. This way, you have a choice – you can mine if you want, and get experience in fleet battles if you want. In short: there is more flexibility outside wormholes and more time consuming pain inside wormholes.

I also highly recommend that you don’t start learning combat in something expensive. You keep talking about going to a nullsec alliance but you have yet to demonstrate that you have any applied combat knowledge at all.

Here is a good overview of fleet combat – it’s a 3 part series on FCing, but is highly applicable to anyone learning nullsec combat:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBuVpzU9GHY&list=FLjNrBEqa4D8p1AVXy43FCrQ&index=11&feature=plpp_video

Alkarasu said...

Well, Rorq is sure a welcome sight in any WH, but I'm not sure the security of WH space is that much better, than that of a null. Sure, they don't have easy access to you, and you may bet that those, who will come to attack won't have capships with them, but you are also randomly connected to different parts of space in random points you have to find, so you can't really guard all the exits (or be sure you know all the exits). At any given moment some random pirate neighbours can decide to go in, pop your Rorq and go back before anyone can react - as you can't be sure every WH open to your system is monitored and you have no local channel to track inrtruders. Most WH corps do that regulary, as it's pretty much all the fun you can get in there anyway.
On the other hand, WH space is extremely mineral rich (so Rorq is, as I said before, a welcome sight, even simple Orca is), it's planets just a treasure trove for PI, and sleeper loot is always in high demand (so your logist and triage carrier is a very welcome addition to sleeper anomaly hunts). Simply put, in a good WH corp you can make your current daily profit with a sole character, if you not lazy, and much more, if you use all the ways there are.

Gevlon said...

@Evemonkey: "something expensive" is a relative term. Value is to be determined in time. As I make 2-300M/hour, losing a T2 logi would cost me the same as spending 20-30 minutes in a rifter in RvB. And while I'd learn several combat basics with the rifter, I doubt most experience would help me fly the logi.

So probably - besides reading up - my learning will mean wasting two dozen Guardians in my first two weeks in null/WH.

Anonymous said...

Consider starting a wormhole corporation. They require few people, fairly small investment, and there's a fair amount of free information about them.

You could join an existing one to learn the ropes, but, since you have general experience leading and more than enough capital on your own, well, it'd be an interesting adventure for the space goblin.

On the flip side, any project makes you more vulnerable. Certain personalities will try to scam you for the titan, or try to bait you into joining their alliances and blow up your titan. A "goblin" wh corp may become a target.

Finally, there isn't just the dream of the One Empire in K. There's the dream of One Empire in w-space. Who's to say which one is crazier?

Péter Zoltán said...

I'm a big fan of WH space, though I cannot colonize a WH as I'm very new and pretty much playing alone.

I'm also the guy who doesn't really like firing guns and such, I'd rather do anything and everything else.

But in a WH you MUST fire guns. The main source of WH income are sites (grav, magneto, etc) which are usually inhabited by Sleepers. You must kill them. And of course WH space is heavily contested. Sooner or later someone is going to get you and whoop your ass.

After all, if you decide to found a WH corp or start a WH operation with some people, I probably will be joining.

ps: I liked the hungarian month names in the charts.

Anonymous said...

W-space being dangerous/contested is a myth. I've lived in null, pirated in low sec, warred in high sec, and my time in wh was the least pvp-demanding by far.

You want to be a grunt? Sure, join a big null alliance. But an indie corp has a better chance holding a wh than holding a decent moon in empire, and I won't even mention "sov" and "indie corp" together.

Anonymous said...

Osprey/Exequror are the cheap learning hulls for logistics. I wouldn't recommend them for learning the very basics of PvP though.

evemonkey said...

ahh, I guess I had a genuine concern that you were going gung-ho out in your brand spanking officer fit carrier without first at least being in a small ship fleet.

I pretty much exclusively fly Heavy Interdictors because I can afford to lose them (about the same price as logi ships) and I enjoy flying them.

just don't be offended if some FC's insist on a tech I ship. they will _may_ be worried slightly about the isk kill/death ratio and tech 1 ships are often free from the corporation.

Hivemind said...

I'd imagine the Rorqual would be more value in Null due to the combination of its ore compression ability, the WH mass limits that govern W-space and the lack of refining stations to be found there. It also comes with a lack of opportunistic hot-droppers or DD happy titan pilots out to ruin your day, which are the biggest threats to a Rorqual (well, the real threat is pilot error, but those are the people who will be turning that error into a loss). It's not bereft of capitals as others have said, however; it depends on the class of WH you are in, but there are plenty of WH inhabitants in capitals, even some in capitals built locally in WHs that don't otherwise allow caps in or out due to mass limits.

The thing for you Gevlon is that WH space is purely a production ground - there is no trade to perform in WH space, all the valuables it creates are either used locally or exported to hisec markets for sale. There literally aren't any markets there to run, what with the complete lack of stations to trade in. Nullsec has limited markets for the most part, as most sov holders (bar a few exceptions like CVA) keep control of the stations to themselves and their allies, but at the same time they also have a captive customer base, since the options are buy local or import all the way from hisec with the risks that entails.

With an attitude like "As I make 2-300M/hour, losing a T2 logi would cost me the same as spending 20-30 minutes in a rifter in RvB." you'd definitely fit in in null - you haven't even lost the ships yet, and already you're declaring "didn't want that Logi anyway, it's already replaced". Logi is probably one of the worst roles to jump straight into with absolutely no PvP experience - probably beaten only by Supercap and Triage Carrier pilot* - because you're one of the enemy's guaranteed primary targets (in fairness, you personally are probably always going to be a guaranteed primary target, but this is painting an even bigger bullseye on your head) and your ability to do your job will directly affect the success of the rest of the fleet. If you're going for guardian, you will be responsible for maintaining a cap chain with other Logis that allows them to make full use of their reps without running out of power in about 10 seconds, so if you screw up you can effectively cripple the entire logi team. If I were an FC and you showed up for a fleet with absolutely no combat experience under your belt and wanting to join the Logi wing I would tell you to get some experience in a fleet fight first in among the DPS blob to get a feel for how the fight goes, even if it won't teach you how to rep people, before you start taking on more important jobs. If I were a pilot in a fleet and found out that you'd made it into logi with no experience somehow, I would make sure my clone was updated and my ship had plat insurance and then start praying.

*Aside from poking a little fun at your goals, this is because supercaps are subject to an awful lot of rules that don't come up elsewhere in the game like the inability to dock (thus requiring deep understanding of the byzantine aggression mechanics), DD effects on ship (can't jump, can't cloak etc etc), reliance on other players for a way out thanks to cynos/jump drives and again instant primary status, while triage carriering likewise makes you a big target and dependant on cyno pilots to get you out, plus has the rest of the fleet depending heavily on you - there are usually a lot fewer triage carriers in a fleet than there would be logis, so the performance of an individual Triage pilot has a bigger effect, and a Triaging carrier is completely on its own when it comes to defense as it cannot be repped or capped by other ships, so you have to know what you're doing when you hit the triage button.

Kristopher said...

Put in an app with Taggart ( TTI ) for WH ISK reaping.

The application has a short test to help weed out socialists.

The Purgatory hole needs more competent pilots for Sleeper farming. Sleeper fleets there are armor based for reps.

Shares are based on what you can fly, not the fact that you are a member.

Anonymous said...

Definitely a null-sec corp/alliance. Logi are always in need there, and carriers and rorqs as well (compression of the rorq is invaluable). WH corps are perhaps more profitable (arguably), but they are also much more tiring (scanning 24.7) and there's great potential risk (i.e. someone stealing your ships).

Side note: one of the benefits of null alliances is that they have lots of isk. Most alliances that deserve the term have ship replacement programs, and one of the first boats that are replaced tend to be logi (seeing as an incentive to fly one), so even if you do lose a few learning 0.0 tactics, it'll probably not end up costing you a dime aside from buying your initial ship.