Greedy Goblin

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Flower power

This is Triara. Other's may call her Gevlon's alt, but soul-sister sounds better to me. She loves flowers as most girls. But most girls are fine with a bunch of roses. Triara has a bit more flowers. Around 1200 stacks from Peacebloom to Nitghtmare vine. Full bags, bank, guildbank, and the same for 5 sub-alts. As you might guessed, the point is inscription. This is a new profession which will be available in a nearby patch. Date currently unknown but soon. What will an inscriptor need to level his skills?
  • 7-10 stack Bloodthistle, Peacebloom, Silverleaf, Earthroot, Mageroyal.
  • 4-5 stack: Briarthorn, Swiftthistle, Bruiseweed, Stranglekelp.
  • 3-5 stack: Wild Steelbloom, Grave Moss, Kingsblood, Liferoot.
  • 4-6 stack: Fadeleaf, Goldthorn, Khadgar's Whiskers, Wintersbite.
  • 8-12 stack: Firebloom, Purple Lotus, Arthas' Tears, Sungrass, Blindweed, Ghost Mushroom, Gromsblood.
  • 13-19 stack: Golden Sansam, Dreamfoil, Mountain Silversage, Plaguebloom, Icecap
  • the outland herb requirements for skill 300-375 is yet unknown
WoW insider posted a poll about the people's choice of professions. 26% claimed to try out inscription. That's a lot of people. Lot of people with lot of herbs means lot of profit. Unless some miracle happens, Triara will be very rich.

This is not the first, and not the last instance of huge market change. The prices are determined by demand and supply. If a new demand arises, the prices go up, if new supply source forms, the prices go down. Since the change happens literally overnight by a patch, the market change is rapid and huge. After 2.4 introduced Void Shatter, the price of Void Crystal doubled and the price of Large Prismatic Shard dropped by 30%. After arena season 4 introduced, the price of Greater Planar Essence tripled overnight and kept that high for a week.

But this herb business seems to be huge, even compared to these issues.
  • At first it affect 20-25% of the playerbase. Arena season affected the bests of gladiators (who could buy brutal gear), the void shatter affected enchanters.
  • Secondly: people are filled with money. Raiding stopped in most guilds, so no money were spent on elixirs and repair. People were doing dailies for months, accumulating money. They even had enough to waste on the 22 slot bag.
  • The new content patch will allow inscription but no new instance or quests are introduced. So people has nothing else to do than level professions.
I cannot even approximate the need for herbs, especially in the "Golden Sansam, Dreamfoil, Mountain Silversage, Plaguebloom, Icecap" case. These herbs were usually not collected. Most of them grow in lvl 58-60 territories of Azeroth, which are skipped by most people. They are not ingredients for widely used potions, so even alchemists have no deposits of them.

While herbalists will definately start farming these herbs as soon as the prices skyrocket but no way could find enough herb. Smart people surely collected/bought their resources already. But if most were smart, there would be no place for us businessmen. So here comes Triara with 1200 stacks of herbs. And she is most probably not alone, many businessmen filled his vaults with herbs.

How will this business effect the world?
  • Triara will be very rich and very happy.
  • Since she buys herbs now, the herb prices elevate. The herbalists get more for their work, so they are happy.
  • After the patch, Triara will sell herbs. Selling decrease prices, so the herb-buyers will be happy. Maybe happy is not the correct term, since prices will still be high. But less high than they would be without Triara. And that's the point.
WoW economist also dedicated a topic to this issue, don't miss it.

Taco, a commenter on WoW economist pointed out another probable market change: since lot of people will start Death Knights, and lot of these Death Knights will choose to be blacksmiths, stacking copper, bronze, iron and other metals can also be profitable.


Larísa said...

A good reminder. I'm thinking about dropping herba on Larísa to pick up tailoring (so I can craft some nice gear for raiding in WotLK. But before dropping it I'd better stack up on herbs. Or get my feet moving and level my alt to 70 and learn her how to pick flowers. It seems like the best way to spend any spare time these days.

Gevlon said...

If you want to gather herbs, do it with Larísa since she has epic mount so can gather fast. Your new alt will be much slower.

Since she is alchemist, she can keep on levelling alchemy with skill 365+ elixirs and transmutes, so it worth to stock up some materials for them.

Larísa said...

yeah I know... but it sucks not having tailoring on my mage main. Having herba on a main char isn't really a good idea. So I think I'll drop it anyway...

Maybe I can get rich with your help so I can get Arisal an epic mount as well... :)

Gevlon said...

I NEVER said not to drop herbalism. Of course tailoring is necessary for a raiding mage. I just said gather bunch of herbs BEFORE you drop herbalism.