tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post8276419498237785917..comments2024-02-27T14:44:07.868+01:00Comments on Greedy goblin: A little gift to total strangersGevlonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07072766785893313616noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-5900544576667675542012-08-24T21:27:10.472+02:002012-08-24T21:27:10.472+02:00If you have an idea of the dynamics of the market ...If you have an idea of the dynamics of the market (maybe lognormal random walk),<br />and have an idea of your time value of money, then you can frame choosing a price to put your goods at as choosing among several possible bets.<br /><br />I think the Kelly criterion offers a way to decide which of several bets to invest in, and how much to invest in it. Proebsting's paradox is an excellent read: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proebsting%27s_paradox<br /><br />My guess is that neither blindly 0.01 cutting nor blindly deeply-undercutting is optimal, but I'm not sure how far suboptimal, how much additional returns could be made with a more principled pricing scheme.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04906677773615232966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-25776688790999898252012-08-24T21:16:30.996+02:002012-08-24T21:16:30.996+02:00Probably a very noobish question but how do you kn...Probably a very noobish question but how do you know they are bots ? It's very rare to see undercutting happen in seconds.<br /><br />@Anonymous : it surprises me that you only make 40millions for each billlion you have in a month. Try to look at other items/places...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-13921500498473865362012-08-24T20:54:28.595+02:002012-08-24T20:54:28.595+02:00I've dabbled in deep undercutting the Jita ski...I've dabbled in deep undercutting the Jita skillbook market. I've noticed two kinds of 0.01 iskers. About two thirds will not 0.01 undercut me when I get to within 33% of the CCP-seeded price; the other will keep going until 5%. My guess is that there are two standard bot programs, one smarter than the other.<br /><br />Smarter? Why yes. As a beginning player, I'm only posting 10 or 20 books, as opposed to their 100 or 200. I expect there are a lot of annoyed botters when they found out what they actually sold their books at...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-49661223530777428002012-08-24T10:37:56.376+02:002012-08-24T10:37:56.376+02:0015-2015-20Gevlonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07072766785893313616noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-2804898144028752532012-08-24T10:27:18.149+02:002012-08-24T10:27:18.149+02:00with all you statistics on your blog. how moch hou...with all you statistics on your blog. how moch hours do you play per week in average?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-75914074572580526092012-08-24T09:05:51.785+02:002012-08-24T09:05:51.785+02:00I've been in the "deep undercutting"...I've been in the "deep undercutting" game since before it was cool - And I've not seen a massive reduction in 0.01 pilots. Perhaps I'm trading in the wrong markets - but these bots will rest to +/- 0.01isk as long as an item is even a little bit profitable (i.e. if the bot can make 0.01 isk profit after everything, it will drive the price until it does so, or until its master tells it to stop).<br /><br />The only benefit I see to deep undercutting is more rapidly filling buy orders. My graphs do not show an exponential increase in overall profits in the markets I am undercutting in. I either 'participate' in the cartel and make 'large' amounts slowly or 'undercut' the cartel and have a higher rate of turn over but ultimately the same profit for a given period of time.<br /><br />No matter the strategy I take I produce about 4% profit a month. So for every billion I have in the market I'm making 40 million a month on it - which means that I am actively trading around 20 billion isk on the market to keep my plex up.<br /><br />Does 'breaking the cartel' *really* work (beyond the obvious reduction in opportunity costs involved in camping the market)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com