tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post3430796081114905389..comments2024-02-27T14:44:07.868+01:00Comments on Greedy goblin: Who are the loud minority?Gevlonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07072766785893313616noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-12580657924607745802011-06-24T19:58:16.439+02:002011-06-24T19:58:16.439+02:00I would go further and say the start point wasn...I would go further and say the start point wasn't WOLTK but patch 3.4 in TBC when they allowed Heroic badges to buy Raid equivalent gear. It stopped players from bothering to raid Gruual, TK and SSC. And forced players to grind out heroics and kara runs for badges. This started the trend in WOTLK of making previous raid content pointless and thus reducing available content.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-66741147063659163402011-06-24T17:53:05.737+02:002011-06-24T17:53:05.737+02:00"The only bosses that are at all hard are Chi..."The only bosses that are at all hard are Chimerion, Nef, Council, and 4Winds (the last two just for the unique mechanics that make it interesting)."<br /><br />Bold, unnecessary statement. Difficulty depends on many factors: group composition, individual skill, group skill, gear, addons, and raid difficulty (10m, 25m, 10m HC, 25m HC).<br /><br />Some people find Chim hard. I don't. Some people find Council hard. I found it challenging on 25m because lightning rod can wipe you, and there is not much space. Some people find Al'Akir hard. Yet warriors, mages, hunters, goblins, priests can use movement altering effects even when they are doomed to fail on slipstream.<br /><br />I'd say Cho'Gall HC, and Sinestra are harder than Council, Conclave, or Chim. If you look on the success rate on Chim on WoL, it is actually high. Omnitron HC, is not, since there are far more mechanics which kill too many people.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-32367044955834196152011-06-24T00:07:30.305+02:002011-06-24T00:07:30.305+02:00Very interesting analysis. I particularly appreci...Very interesting analysis. I particularly appreciate that you defined each category of gamer in one place (I'm sure you'd done it before, but perhaps more spread out).<br /><br />From my own experience, I'm clearly in the "casual" category (unfortunately), and I agree with your analysis of the changes to players like me. I did go through ICC (finished it at 15 buff, though), but since then I've simply not had the time. Everything in LK was a boring grindfest by the end, and the new dungeons I felt were just about the right level of challenge for me, but woefully too hard for many of the other M&S out there; this made the dungeons almost unplayable to casuals who didn't have full guild groups, making the expansion far less enjoyable. The troll dungeons enhance that effect; in the old heroics, you might be able to carry a player, so if my buddies and I (4 of us) had a fifth terrible moron, we'd still get through it. In the Z heroics, though, the same is not true; one bad player makes them impossible.<br /><br />That may be an interesting avenue for your discussion, then. How are the networks developed by the various types of players (guilds, etc) effecting the game experience. I'm sure if I had a full guild group every time I did a dungeon, I'd be a lot happier.<br /><br />Good post.stubbornhttp://sheepthediamond.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-51972253259622840262011-06-23T19:13:10.893+02:002011-06-23T19:13:10.893+02:00I love your descriptions of the different types of...I love your descriptions of the different types of WoW player, that was a good read.<br /><br />However I think as others have said you are reading too much into those graphs.<br /><br />I'd have expected to see the same profile had WOTLK been the original game, TBC been the 2nd expansion and Vanilla been the 3rd expansion (i.e. reversed).<br /><br />To me that graph reflects exactly what I would expect to see from any product when it approaches saturation.<br /><br />It could be explained another way (note that is no more or less likely to be true than your theory):<br /><br />By the end of TBC pretty much anyone that liked MMORPG's and the fantasy genre had heard of WoW, tried WoW or were playing WoW.<br /><br />The only area of growth was for Blizzard to move mass market and start enticing a wider audience outside of the usual MMORPG stereotypes. They went for the non traditional gaming groups that the console makers have so successfully courted recently (Mr T and Ozzy adverts). These new players offset the churn of the original players who had grown out of the game so you didn't see much further expansion. No one plays for ever and the Vanilla boys were starting to drop off regardless. Blizzard did well to maintain subscription levels.<br /><br />All they did with Cataclysm is start reverting back to the TBC forumula. At that point it was only logical that the game would drop below late TBC numbers due to the loss of Vanilla players and the new demographics for which the game no longer was targetted.<br /><br />As I say though that is no more likely to be correct than your theory. The one thing we do know and that you should remember at all times Mr Gevlon is this:<br /><br />"correlation does not imply causation."<br /><br />E.g. Looking at those graphs I think it is obvious that the decline in WoW has been caused by Swine Flu (remember that?). I mean it is obvious! The timing says it all!<br /><br />You get the point!<br /><br />Have written the above I just noticed Azuriel had pretty much said most of it but as I've wasted so much time writing this I will post it anyway!Coralinanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-92128828363812748282011-06-23T16:38:12.346+02:002011-06-23T16:38:12.346+02:00Actually, speaking as a casual, WOTLK had some adv...Actually, speaking as a casual, WOTLK had some advantages because I could join a pug raid for ICC and see a few bosses. I eventually saw everyone in Naxx, though never in a single raid.<br /><br />Blizz seems to be doing something smart by nerfing the earlier raids and requiring them to start the legendary. I'm hoping this means they'll be strongly pugged in 4.2.<br /><br />Admittedly, I'm not happy about the lack of new 5-mans in 4.2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-12436216867838169712011-06-23T09:44:51.054+02:002011-06-23T09:44:51.054+02:00Actually, speaking as a casual, I did have just en...Actually, speaking as a casual, I did have just enough time to raid every week. I could do ICC 10 every friday, and ICC 25 if I was very lucky. I appreciate that it was easy content, but I could at least raid. Now, Zandalari heroics are all I can do, as guilds will not pug, and I can't keep to a raiding schedule. I excluded regular heroics as they are trivial now.<br /><br />The only real nightmare of WOTLk was a lack of separation. An idiot could easily AoE themselves up to 232/245 epics, and then 251 epics from frost badges. There was no way to separate an idiot who had his hand held by the guild leader, and couldn't step out of the fire from a casual. I wasn't any good at raiding, but at least I had a "bone to chew on." Currently there is not enough casual content, and I decided to play a game that can give me more success with a fairly limited play schedule (this isn't whining, WoW is what it is, and I shouldn't be complaining that my coffee doesn't taste like tea).Bizdisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-68675149992283153692011-06-23T03:02:30.016+02:002011-06-23T03:02:30.016+02:00Alas, there is an increasing insulation in interne...Alas, there is an increasing insulation in internet discussions. Most of the news and blogs you read agree with your opinion of Bush vs Obama, WoW vs Rift, Microsoft vs Apple, harder vs accessible raids, not because you are right but because of your selection of your information providers.<br /><br />--<br /><br />Which also brings up the point: what % of the WoW 12 million customers ( or say 15? 20? million who have subscribed for over a month since TBC) posted in the WoW forum last year? My complete guess is the ratio of customer to forum or blog posters is somewhere between 100 and 1000. All the self-selected forum posters are insignificant statistically. (I.e., how many more people do you think bought sparkly cats than posted on a blog?)<br /><br />Besides, when people like Syncaine become disillusioned, they write impassioned prose about their issues. When people like Tobold's wife grow disillusioned, they just unsubscribe. My guess is the WoW forums tend to considerably overstate the, for want of a better term, Syncaine/Gevlon perspective.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-16604092749890377072011-06-23T01:27:13.370+02:002011-06-23T01:27:13.370+02:00I'd like to make a comment about the nerf-anat...I'd like to make a comment about the nerf-anation of Rift dungeons.<br /><br />Yes, it was bad, and I stopped subscribing because of it.<br /><br />However, it was actually necessary, assuming The Gersh was going to continue to be allowed to completely break class-balance.<br /><br />A properly made pre-made, with one cleric healer, one mage chloromancer, one tank, and two dps, that were not Rogues, could fairly easily complete the Tier 1 dungeons.<br /><br />HOWEVER, many boss fights pre-nerf REQUIRED two healers, and this was not made clear. Out of a five man group. I had several clerics get very upset at not being able to handle it at all even though properly geared/spec'd/playing mostly good. Then we double cleric'd it.... and it was still fairly hard.<br /><br />Of course, it is much easier with 1 cleric and 1 chloromancer. The REQUIRED pre-made configuration for Tier 1(and Tier 2 was harder).<br /><br />Also, Rogue DPS was very poor. VERY POOR. And you had to be melee. Anything short of cookie cutter spec+properly geared+in melee+proper rotation and Rogue DPS was very, very poor.<br /><br />I say this as someone who tanked as a rogue. I MUCH preferred tanking, as it was not humiliating. It was doable. Success was possible.<br /><br />Rogue ranged DPS was very poor period. Many Boss's REQUIRE DPS'ers to be at range. Or spend a very large amount of time running around doing nothing.<br /><br />Could a PUG with 1 cleric 1 tank and 3 Rogue DPS complete a Tier 1 dungeon in Rift? <br /><br />Probably not. In fact, almost certainly not. It took much mockery but I finally shut up the whining Leet on the Rift boards after the nerf. <br /><br />I was ticked that rather than FIRE GERSH they had instead chosen to nuke content into the ground. And the Leet provided cover for Gersh with their "Rogue DPS is OKAY". Well, NO IT IS NOT. And there is only four classes in Rift, so that was a big deal.<br /><br />The single most played class was Rogues, and most people playing them wanted to DPS. Making DPS *bleep* was an absolutely tarded action.<br /><br />Gersh should be fired.Themistoclesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-89611365383285247452011-06-22T23:11:19.461+02:002011-06-22T23:11:19.461+02:00@Samus
Again no. There is nothing what could be s...@Samus<br /><br />Again no. There is nothing what could be said about these numbers.<br /><br />If you want to make proper statistic you must choose your sample very carefully. Volunteers, contributing to some site I never heard of after 5 years of playing WoW, are very poor sample. If I put voting form on some popular news portal the results won't be the same as is average opinion of the whole nation.Juminanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-90911934343586801412011-06-22T20:43:30.865+02:002011-06-22T20:43:30.865+02:00@Lyxi
The only thing consistent between WotLK and...@Lyxi<br /><br />The only thing consistent between WotLK and Cata was the attempt to push casual players through raids as the only real PvE end game. In both cases, 5-mans and heroics exist but the reward structure and mentality from the dungeon finder make them just another part of the grind to get to the "real" end game.<br /><br />You cannot be proud of completing a heroic, you are expected to run through 7 a week. If you can't, you suck. If you struggle, you suck. There is no progression and no appropriately challenging content for casual players, which are the vast majority.Samushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02310391280860277082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-6709631046603737022011-06-22T20:19:10.201+02:002011-06-22T20:19:10.201+02:00Subscription numbers prove nothing (personally, I ...Subscription numbers prove nothing (personally, I blame the yetis in Storm Peaks) so let's get to your point:<br /><br /><i>"The reason why I'm writing this is that Blizzard is making the same mistake again. By trivializing 4.0 raiding content by nerfing and by luring 4.2 geared people to 5-mans, they destroy content for casual players. Unless you have enough time to do scheduled Firelands raids, you can only do boring, trivial grinds."</i><br /><br />By making T11 raids easier, they're making it more puggable, less difficult and more accessible to casual players. If you can pug 3/6 in BWD in an hour with a low chance of failure, that's not too much for a casual player to enjoy. It means that we will have more to do than just run heroics. The new daily quest hub might also be appealing to casuals, depending on what they are.<br /><br />If anything, casual players come out on top with this patch.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-50027388905921038002011-06-22T19:05:13.765+02:002011-06-22T19:05:13.765+02:00@John-
"There is no voice of reason!
With no...@John-<br /><br /><i>"There is no voice of reason!<br />With no reliable data available, no amount of number crunching will falsify anything. All one can do is try to formulate a plausible hypothesis and use that as a basis for argumentation."</i><br /><br />Bullshit. If there is no reliable data available, one always has the option of saying "There is no reliable data, and until there is I have no desire to waste my time coming up a hypothesis which would probably be nothing more than my own personal biases based on limited anecdotal experiances."<br /><br />See how easy that is?Sheldonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-85576185264017038252011-06-22T18:07:44.876+02:002011-06-22T18:07:44.876+02:00@Samus.
Neither GW2, nor SWTOR are yet launched. ...@Samus.<br /><br />Neither GW2, nor SWTOR are yet launched. Both of them smell strongly like vaporware to me.<br /><br />Getting past that, GW2 will not be subscription based. It's kida foolish to affirm that, mainly because, iirc, GW 1 has over 9 million copies sold (And GW is not sold in China(PRC), it is however sold in Taiwan(RoC).). Does that mean that it has no players than WoW? Unsure, because there's at least a part that bought both GW and playes WoW.<br /><br />The same will probably happen with GW2. (I gotta hand them to Anet, this is a VERY smart move, since they're inching in WoW's market share without taking them head-on.)<br /><br />Now, on the topic at hand, I am completely unsure what to believe. The only thing that I can think of is that Blizzard tried 'easy' and didn't work, and now they try 'hard', and it doesn't work.<br /><br />What then? The only conclusion I can come with is that design choices are massively undercut by other circumstances. The strongest I think is the economic crisis which threw a spanner in the expansion of internet accesibility.<br /><br />But we lack a controlled experiment, and we lack Blizzard's data, and we even lack an unified theory. It's bonkers, you can't just claim that one theory is better than others based on the same data other competing theories use to claim thet they're better.Lyxinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-87200877660259451262011-06-22T17:57:59.064+02:002011-06-22T17:57:59.064+02:00@Jumina
Yes, they miss some players now, and they...@Jumina<br /><br />Yes, they miss some players now, and they missed some players before. You are only saying it does not include 100% of the players. That is true now, and was true a year ago.<br /><br />However, as a sample size it is much, much bigger than necessary to be statistically accurate. Surveys function by only taking samples of a few hundred or a few thousand.<br /><br />So while you are right that there are currently more than 3.87 million characters 10-85 in NA and EU, it is also safe to say the number of players is down 35%. There is a margin of error, but with millions in the sample that margin is very small.Samushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02310391280860277082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-79766819971580893852011-06-22T16:18:51.933+02:002011-06-22T16:18:51.933+02:00@Samus:
I checked my server on WarcraftRealms and...@Samus:<br /><br />I checked my server on WarcraftRealms and got this:<br /><br />There are too few Horde entries for this realm to give reliable results! Please help today by submitting data for this realm!<br /><br />And the numbers are obvisouly wrong.<br /><br />Looks like there is decline in WarcraftRealms contributors.Juminanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-66184853785151928642011-06-22T16:10:03.968+02:002011-06-22T16:10:03.968+02:00@ John: I am not saying that Azuriel's blog po...@ John: I am not saying that Azuriel's blog post on the same topic has any merits. All I'm saying is that Azuriel's response in this blog post is entirely sensible. You cannot draw any reasonable conclusions from the data in that table alone. Gevlon is drawing a conclusion. Therefore, I have to conclude that although plausible, his approach is unscientific and needs to be observed as such. Azuriel points out precisely why Gevlon is being unscientific, and I applaud that.<br /><br />I couldn't care less what their agendas are. If an argument is flawed, by definition, the conclusion is flawed, even if it describes things correctly. Gevlon may be right in describing the optimal system, but his argument to come to that conclusion is flawed beyond belief.Squishalothttp://www.wowhead.com/user=Squishalotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-48067048505673826202011-06-22T16:02:07.290+02:002011-06-22T16:02:07.290+02:00As I commented on Tobold's blog:
"Accord...As I commented on Tobold's blog:<br /><br />"According to WoWWiki, on 10 June, 2010 WarcraftRealms was reporting over 6 million active 10-85 characters. Now, they are reporting only 3.87 million. <b>WoW player population in NA and EU has dropped by 35.5% in the last year.</b>"<br /><br />MMOData stops showing "WoW West" early in 2010, because Blizzard stops reporting that separate data in early 2010. They stopped reporting because that's what MMORPG companies do when their numbers drop dramatically.<br /><br />I think it is reasonable to predict that either SWTOR or GW2 will have surpassed WoW in NA and EU players a year from now.Samushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02310391280860277082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-6034054346853984782011-06-22T15:40:51.164+02:002011-06-22T15:40:51.164+02:00Analyses like this which attempt to link trends in...Analyses like this which attempt to link trends in subscription numbers to game design decisions are often unconvincing to me. Too often there is no consideration of other causes, such as economic troubles, nice summer weather, or market saturation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-32435375976195492922011-06-22T14:50:51.853+02:002011-06-22T14:50:51.853+02:00The casual category ("couldn't regularly ...The casual category ("couldn't regularly raid due to being unable to hold schedule") benefit from having a pug-able raid. <br /><br />I think their interests are being slightly misrepresented here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-65685591954998919552011-06-22T14:23:13.987+02:002011-06-22T14:23:13.987+02:00I'm playing wow since wanilla and TBC sucked. ...I'm playing wow since wanilla and TBC sucked. Maybe you do not remember how many times you had to run normal dungeons just to get rep for HM. Especially on second character. No dungeon finder so you spend like 1 hour or more on trade chat to get group together (later in the expansion). No change to get into better guild without key to their last raid becouse noone was willing to make lower raids just to get you the key. Only exception was when guild lost main tank or so they just had to return back and progress with new char for the keys. PvP was "balanced" play rogue+mage, warrior+druid or just loose. Win trading in arenas and a lot of other problems. <br /><br />WOTLK brought a lot of good things for the game and Cata as well. <br /><br />I agree with Squishalot that actually WOW not loosing players is great achievement for company.Tazarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-61730168603777014982011-06-22T14:08:50.341+02:002011-06-22T14:08:50.341+02:00Azuriel - thank you for being a voice of reason.
...<i>Azuriel - thank you for being a voice of reason.</i><br /><br /><b>There is no voice of reason!</b><br /><br />Everyone has their own agenda they want to promote. Azuriel does it, Gevlon does it, Syncaine and Wolfshead do it and certainly also Tobold does it.<br /><br />With no reliable data available, no amount of number crunching will falsify anything. All one can do is try to formulate a plausible hypothesis and use that as a basis for argumentation. In that sense both Azuriel's and Gevlon's suggestions seem equally plausible. Now it is up to the interested reader to make up their own damn mind!<br /><br />I, for one, find Gevlon's analysis more plausible, partly because it matches my own intuition and partly because it is in line with other bloggers (Nils, Syncaine, Wolfshead). That is not to say, though, that Azuriel's view has no merit. Tobold might agree.Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-85505113982039125432011-06-22T11:08:01.884+02:002011-06-22T11:08:01.884+02:00As a player fitting the casual gamer group, I coul...As a player fitting the casual gamer group, I couldn't agree more. I've recently resubbed to check out the troll heroics and join your PVP efforts.<br />The heroics already feel too easy. I've healed groups rushing through the troll heroics without any cc; not fun, no challenge.<br />I guess 4.2 will indeed completely trivialize the heroics again, just like what happened in WotLK.<br />Imo Blizzard should revert to the pre-badge gear system. I don't need raid gear to have fun and I don't need morons in my heroic group.Caramaelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-13510364840068076492011-06-22T10:32:14.731+02:002011-06-22T10:32:14.731+02:00@ Gevlon, what makes you think that they'll ro...@ Gevlon, what makes you think that they'll roflstomp the 4.0 raids and unsubscribe, when they've been subscribed for the last 6 months and failing on current raid content? What reason is there that they would stay subscribed for 6 months unable to do current raid content, but will unsubscribe when they can't do the *new* current raid content?<br /><br />Also, it's pretty obvious why subscriptions increased at the end of TBC - it was in preparation for WotLK. Wrath was well known to be the big major expansion that rounded off Warcraft lore for those who played Warcraft 3 and cared at all about the game story. Everyone who wanted to play WoW was already in WoW, getting ready for the new content.<br /><br />You're being inconsistent.<br /><br />@ Azuriel - thank you for being a voice of reason. I believe that the only way you could draw any sort of conclusion is by monitoring churn rates (i.e. volume of existing players leaving and new players joining), not overall subscriber numbers and changes (i.e. net volume of leavers and joiners).Squishalothttp://www.wowhead.com/user=Squishalotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-41844976183202723992011-06-22T09:32:52.669+02:002011-06-22T09:32:52.669+02:00@Azuriel: link fixed.
Please note that WoW west ...@Azuriel: link fixed. <br /><br />Please note that WoW west subscriptions INCREASED even in the last months of TBC and then flatlined at WotLK. Clearly something happened that moment.<br /><br />Also, the "whole MMO market stangnated": the whole MMO market is accessible so actually there is no way the player can go for decent game.<br /><br />Nerfs hit old content, when 5-mans were nerfed, only casuals and M&S played them.<br /><br />Also, I'm not questioning that there are players who are struggling in 4.0 raids but I assume Bashiok misinterprets them. Most of them are NOT social M&S who will be happy with the nerf, they are casuals who will once roflstomp the nerfed raids and then will have nowhere to go and unsubscribe.Gevlonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07072766785893313616noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-62661594669965349562011-06-22T09:29:11.503+02:002011-06-22T09:29:11.503+02:001) First boss should be significantly easier; guil...1) First boss should be significantly easier; guilds die if no "progression." You can make the 2nd hard but first should be easy. <br /><br />2) guilds were quite fluid in LK before rep and perks. So 100 LK guilds killing something is probably a but fewer unique subscribers than 100 Cata guilds.<br /><br />3) My anecdotal evidence is that to me WoW seemed pretty vibrant during LK and seems to be shrinking now. <br /><br />4) I was shocked to find that Blizcon tickets which usually sold at high scalpers prices are eBayed for below face value. <br /><br />My personal opinion is that Cata was a bad business decision made worse by doing it while Rift launched.<br /><br />Ironically, the main point of agreement of all sides is TBC was better.<br /><br />We shall see.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com