tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post2720726063904814651..comments2024-02-27T14:44:07.868+01:00Comments on Greedy goblin: 98% rightGevlonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07072766785893313616noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-71408730527119204922010-11-10T08:06:24.261+01:002010-11-10T08:06:24.261+01:00@ Vesoom - the scientific method requires you to h...@ Vesoom - the scientific method requires you to have measurable goals and targets prior to starting the experiment. If Gevlon is attempting to apply the scientific method to his theories, he's doing a very bad job of it, judging by his assessment of WGClean on Tuesday. It reeks of trial-and-error.<br /><br />"I have a theory, let's test it by using it" is not a legitimate means of scientific testing when you're not controlling your experiment in any reasonable manner.<br /><br />I'm not sure what you mean by the "evidence to back up Gevlon's point". To me, he's said a bunch of general truisms that apply in very specific circumstances, and can't be generalised for the reasons I highlighted in my opening reply.Squishalothttp://www.wowhead.com/user=Squishalotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-40686505218311495132010-11-09T22:08:13.303+01:002010-11-09T22:08:13.303+01:00Correct me if I'm misunderstanding, but you...Correct me if I'm misunderstanding, but you're using data from one week to make your conclusions?<br /><br />Let me point out some obvious flaws in your "study":<br /><br />1) You need a much larger data set. I'd probably start taking your results as useful evidence after about a month or two of WG, at various times of the day and various days of the week.<br /><br />2) How are you accounting for patch 4.0.1? Currently it takes about 3-4 seconds for DPS to destroy a siege engine. Vehicle stats have not scaled forever and Wintergrasp has become consistently harder and harder for the attackers.<br /><br />3) How are you accounting for players not in your raid who you've kicked, but who may have a vendetta against you and are trying to sabotage your attempts by remaining in the zone and filling up siege spots, leading horde back to your hidden sieges, etc.<br /><br />If I missed anything else I'll give an updated comment, but I'd like to see how you account for the above.Cyrellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-74836584810669150942010-11-09T16:19:14.854+01:002010-11-09T16:19:14.854+01:00@Squishalot,
Up until now much of the discussion ...@Squishalot,<br /><br />Up until now much of the discussion has centered around the fairness or legality of the addon. My point is that the evidence to back up Gevlons point is much more interesting to me than whether Blizzard will allow the addon to continue.<br /><br />"What you don't realise, I think, is that a statistical approach, by very definition, relative to a theoretical approach, is trial and error." <br /><br />There is a difference between pure trial and error and using the scientifc method to investigate a theory.<br /><br />Gevlon has been attempting to use the scientific method (flawed? probably, but an interesting place to start) to test his hypothesis. This is what interests me.Vesoomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-79759406825624736172010-11-09T05:32:08.046+01:002010-11-09T05:32:08.046+01:00@ Vesoom - "There's been lots of discussi...@ Vesoom - <i>"There's been lots of discussion about the addon but to me that's irrelevant as Blizzard can arbitrarily do whatever it chooses in that regard. The statistical nature of his approach is what sets it appart from just a random rant that some seem to want to think it is."</i><br /><br />I don't think anyone thinks it's just a random rant - at least, I don't. But most importantly, I disagree entirely that his 'statistical' approach is any different to that of a bullying boss in real life.<br /><br />Gevlon hasn't talked about how he's come to his view. But at the end of the day, it's all the trial and error of life. His PuG rules are a combination of theory and past experience. All he says is that he used to believe X and now he believes Y. What happened in between is his beliefs in X being eroded by socials. I'd call that trial and error.<br /><br />What you don't realise, I think, is that a statistical approach, <b>by very definition</b>, relative to a theoretical approach, is trial and error.Squishalothttp://www.wowhead.com/user=Squishalotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-56395115189782084702010-11-08T20:35:17.026+01:002010-11-08T20:35:17.026+01:00@Squishalot,
I'm not implying that Gevlon is ...@Squishalot,<br /><br />I'm not implying that Gevlon is nice, or even a "good" boss/leader. The thing that's very interesting to me is that after many months of posts about M&S, he spelled out the technique that he was going to use based on his assertions of what exactly makes someone an M&S. He then provided statistical evidence to back up his theories.<br /><br />The difference between Gevlon and those "arseholes" is that he's using a specific technique that he developed based on his theory of the M&S. Whereas they have learned it (most of them anyway) through trial and error and have not derived it from a general theory.<br /><br />There's been lots of discussion about the addon but to me that's irrelevant as Blizzard can arbitrarily do whatever it chooses in that regard. The statistical nature of his approach is what sets it appart from just a random rant that some seem to want to think it is.Vesoomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-354562170754993552010-11-07T22:02:40.359+01:002010-11-07T22:02:40.359+01:00@ Vesoom - I'm not sure what the point is exac...@ Vesoom - I'm not sure what the point is exactly, if it does get banned. Of course it is possible to control and herd people using social techniques. What Gevlon is doing in WG is what clique leaders and bosses are doing in high schools and workplaces all over the world - my way or the highway. It's not new. What is new is bringing it into WoW in an structured manner.<br /><br />The thing is, bosses who do that are arseholes who aren't worth working for. I will not suffer a boss who isn't willing to publicly admit that they're capable of being wrong, one who would rather damage the company than have his ego hurt in front of others, and I'm good enough not to need to stay. Cliques and gangs are also not worth wasting time on.<br /><br />So what is Gevlon's 'point'? That he can be just as bad as the M&S and get shut down by Blizzard? Anyone can be that bad. Being bad and getting away with it from Blizzard, however, makes a point about the WoW universe.Squishalothttp://www.wowhead.com/user=Squishalotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-85387409508779799542010-11-07T15:15:15.688+01:002010-11-07T15:15:15.688+01:00It's amusing how many commenters are absolutel...It's amusing how many commenters are absolutely convinced that this addon is unfair or illegal and will get broken or banned by blizz. Even if it does, the point has been made. <br /><br />Are the M&S who/what Gevlon says they are? Can you use the social tools that Gevlon has been ranting about for a long time to control them? I would not say the debate is over, but Gevlon has presented some very compelling statistics to back up his theories.Vesoomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-67381147242636044362010-11-07T06:37:54.001+01:002010-11-07T06:37:54.001+01:00If you are an unsatisfied minion is necessary to d...If you are an unsatisfied minion is necessary to decide if the leader could be replaced with a better leader. If he/she can, then you undermine the leader when the leader is not there. You first make sure there is no snitch who will tell the leader everything you have said. Then you openly discuss with the other minions that the leader is incompetent, is weak, is unfair, and there could be a better one. You keep doing this for as long as it takes(even years). The other minions perform worse and if you are lucky, the worst M&S(not you) does so openly in presence of the leader. Eventually after enough failure, a better leader replaces your leader. Now, if there is no better leader to take his/her place, then you keep your mouth shut and do what they tell you.Yagglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15177750815584983551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-85205833241907065302010-11-06T18:08:22.623+01:002010-11-06T18:08:22.623+01:00I am pretty sure the GM you contacted about your a...I am pretty sure the GM you contacted about your addon thought you were talking about the VoA raid.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-4371214767141537822010-11-06T14:35:46.925+01:002010-11-06T14:35:46.925+01:00Edward writes:
"[Gevlon's] theory of hum...Edward writes:<br /><br />"[Gevlon's] theory of human org behavior is what string theory is for physics, the theory of everything that explains every possible empirical observation."<br /><br />I wonder if the above quote was meant as a backhanded compliment. String theory is, at present, agreed to be largely untestable. That is, it has not made any predictions that can be proven true or untrue. In more than a few instances, this mirrors Gevlon's own claims about how the world works.<br /><br />This prompts me to ask: Gevlon, what will be the outcome of your Wintergrasp addon effort? Will you succeed in changing individuals' behavior? Will your faction be more or less effective in WG? What major difficulties will you face? Will people play the way you want even when you or your minions are not leading the raid?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-48517282176946253982010-11-06T01:05:36.844+01:002010-11-06T01:05:36.844+01:00The problem you have is when one rational player s...The problem you have is when one rational player sees you kick another player for doing something non-normal (yet perfectly rational) the rational player gets demoralized. A rational player does not want to follow a leader who does irrational things. So the observing rational will start acting in subpar manner in order to conform to the social norms of the group and avoid getting kicked himself.<br /><br />A good example of this in real life is yourself. You have admitted that your work earnings are subpar compared to their potential because you are reacting to the irrational decisions of society's leaders, the government.Jimnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-19750518844237117492010-11-05T22:17:19.311+01:002010-11-05T22:17:19.311+01:00@ anonamous
Probably mean more likely than not, wh...@ anonamous<br />Probably mean more likely than not, which is anything more than half the time. Most probably, is even higher, and would be more around the 90% mark.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-85624786392627044462010-11-05T21:35:29.325+01:002010-11-05T21:35:29.325+01:00(US)English: "Most probably" isn't u...(US)English: "Most probably" isn't used much. <br /><br />Probably implies a greater than 90% chance.(not a rule, just common usage) Most probably is than equivalent to "near certainly". If you want to use 'most'. Most likely works. (more likely than not) In common usage, 'most likely' is equivalent to 'probably' on its own.<br /><br />Other than that and a few indefinite/definite articles and pluralization, your English is getting much better.<br /><br />Feel free to moderate this. I doubt it has much use to anyone else. Hell, you may not even give a damn.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-72872217177390333382010-11-05T21:12:40.889+01:002010-11-05T21:12:40.889+01:00@last anonymous
I am Greek, and several of the th...@last anonymous<br /><br />I am Greek, and several of the things you said were wrong.<br />Firstly, the anarchist movement started more than 40 years ago and has the form it has today for more than 30 years.<br /><br />also, it's not lack of "belief" or anything. We simply don't efforce the rules.<br /><br />No one, and I mean, NO ONE pays his taxes. That includes me, my parents, grandparents, friends and relatives of any kind. Paying your taxes has become a joke as you will never be hunted down for tax evasion.<br /><br />the anarchist movement also has different roots than economics problems. To understand it, you must understand the recent political history of Greece, the civil war and the dictatorship. Without that, you cannot fully comprehend why that happens.Energybombnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-18039748140548418442010-11-05T18:55:24.581+01:002010-11-05T18:55:24.581+01:00Seems you never studied what happened, happens and...Seems you never studied what happened, happens and will be happening at Greece, 2006-201?.<br /><br />Leadership and economy(free market) are collapsing steadily.<br /><br />While thousands of M&S are steadily voting incapable persons,<br />a sudden 5000% increase has been noticed at the anarchist's movement.<br />Without any leadership, no value to money and authority, absence of belief to morals, ethics,religion<br />these people you could easily call M&S or socials,<br />are making many recreational and destructive actions and activities.<br /><br />How can a social network with complete absence of almost everything you need to make a group function properly,<br />functions so good?<br /><br />How can anarchists M&S+socials stand up so much against the rational system of Capitalism?<br /><br />With every respect, Your Friendly AonymousAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-58698993654009032782010-11-05T18:07:50.688+01:002010-11-05T18:07:50.688+01:00This is all very well and good, but you're sti...This is all very well and good, but you're still not really understanding what I've been arguing on all the other threads. Kudos to you for "fixing" WG on your server in any case.<br /><br />Back to my problem.<br /><br />You can already make a raid to take Wintergrasp the way you want to. You stand outside the Dalaran bank, invite all your friends and then fly into Wintergrasp and click "No".<br /><br />I don't think the automatic raids were designed to do what you want to do with this addon and I think you weren't entirely honest in the way you described the issue to your GM either. Other people have been banned for kicking people from WG and I'm sure you'll eventually run up against this problem too.<br /><br />I'm against your addon not because I don't think your ideas are good, but because anyone can automate kicking people from raids now for whatever reason. To me, addons like this expose a "security flaw" in the Wintergrasp design and Blizzard will be right when they remove your functionality to kick from public raids, just like you can't kick from public Battlegrounds.<br /><br />I played WC3 for almost 2 years and was constantly forced to host my own games. I couldn't simply join a game already in progress because someone's WC3 Banlist automatically kicked me for whatever arbitrary reason the "community" had come up with this time. Whether it was the "GB" IP, or time when they banned all of Benet because someone in Brighton was a leaver on 10.10.2006 at 10:15AM, they didn't like your name or the fact that you were 20 kills ahead of everyone else, or whatever. I don't want WG or Tol Barad to turn into this.Cyrellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-52578360235997740432010-11-05T16:34:12.996+01:002010-11-05T16:34:12.996+01:00A very good post, using very direct language. i&#...A very good post, using very direct language. i've gotten in trouble at work many times because of my rational thinking, and while I don't attempt to lead others into my way of thinking, it leaks out often enough and most managers ultimately don't care for me because of it. Not that I'm some super brilliant evil genius (like gevlon!), but leadership has a lot to do with attaining a mutual goal, and dissenters, even well meaning intelligent dissenters, go a long way towards impeding the goals of a group rather than achieving. This actually has little to do with whether or not you are a social, but about understanding leadership and attainint your goals, as well as understanding the need for a group effort.<br /><br />Great post!Nikodhemushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02165891420642892313noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-48915075792815718112010-11-05T16:23:03.254+01:002010-11-05T16:23:03.254+01:00Viewed objectivly from a behaviouralist view your ...Viewed objectivly from a behaviouralist view your thesis would seem to be correct, but there are other views to take. What made those individuals you call "socials" into "minions" or "subjects" as the rulers call them? Was it inherent in their biology, a part of their ape subroutine, or were they made such by their leaders in order to control/lead them? You imply that both answers are correct, and thus we have the classic problem of who came first, the hen or the egg.Yggnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-67105922557665468512010-11-05T16:20:44.647+01:002010-11-05T16:20:44.647+01:00@Visalyar: I'm definitely interested, especial...@Visalyar: I'm definitely interested, especially if you can link sources tooGevlonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07072766785893313616noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-58978188360943891642010-11-05T16:03:07.810+01:002010-11-05T16:03:07.810+01:00A lot of comments question all the rationals that ...A lot of comments question all the rationals that would be kicked, but if you've ever worked for a company you know that you don't question the boss in front of everyone. You'll get fired. Your boss will usually not mind the same question in private however. Same with cata's, /w with a quick explaination of what your rationalization is and the leader will either tell you to fall in line or authorize your use of the cata.<br /><br />@Gevlon, <br /><br />You are posting your M&S rules at the beginning of the raid correct? Like no cata's, defend the sieges, etc. For many people these rules are obvious, but I know when I first went to WG I didn't know these things.Vesoomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-50328230629540762772010-11-05T15:44:08.767+01:002010-11-05T15:44:08.767+01:00@Gevlon:
"@Bulbasaur: I'm sure we'll ...@Gevlon:<br />"@Bulbasaur: I'm sure we'll be lvl25 guild fast without even trying. 160 members leveling up, doing instances, raids, BGs will roll in XP fast."<br /><br />Beta & Designers scatches say, that the guildexperience earned is roughly divided by the number of guild member. That´s their factor to balance big Raid- and smaller Social guilds. Naturally bigger guilds can farm more experience since they can provide 75% guildinternal raids easily.<br /><br />I could provide some numbers here if requested.Visalyarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-27309887874910169272010-11-05T15:30:01.857+01:002010-11-05T15:30:01.857+01:00@Campitor: it's obvious that RL is more compli...@Campitor: it's obvious that RL is more complicated than WoW. That's why WoW is a good modeling field.<br /><br />@Bulbasaur: I'm sure we'll be lvl25 guild fast without even trying. 160 members leveling up, doing instances, raids, BGs will roll in XP fast.<br /><br />@sha: if a rational is unable to recognize that he is surrounded by M&S, he is not really rational. The M&S is real, ignoring it or acting like it's rational is irrational. So they made a mistake and deserve the kick.Gevlonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07072766785893313616noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-80209705581670648762010-11-05T15:11:43.240+01:002010-11-05T15:11:43.240+01:00So, my friends Wilson Tarbuckles and Pickles Johns...So, my friends Wilson Tarbuckles and Pickles Johnson and I were in Wintergrasp the other night, as outnumbered in wintergrasp as we always are. Our demos and sieges were being smashed to bits before even getting in range of the walls.<br /><br />So what do we do? We got catapults! well only two of them, Pickles was healing, he's a druid and heals in shaman form. So while Pickles was healing our guys trying to defend vehicles we could as you say used to the catapults to "pwn lol."<br /><br />Essentially we were able to defend the other vehicles with the catapults in order to win Wintergrasp.<br /><br />So my proposal for you is, to use the M&S to your advantage...have the catapulting morons defend sieges and demos. They can still 'pwn' and be productive as well.<br /><br />It would certainly reduce kicking and problems...but then you need morons, not so moronic and would actually be interested in defending siege machines as they attack the walls.<br /><br />And it is quite possible to get even the stupidest morons to do things, it just takes a bit (or more) persuasion.<br /><br />Rather than "Hey Meatstick, Move thy ass and swing they sword in defense of they siege."<br /><br />Use, "Hello there, Chartreuse Daniels...could you please give me a hand with these horde over here, they aren't letting the sieges get through, come over here and kick some ass!"<br /><br />Proper delivery can motivate them into doing things they normally wouldn't do. Since M&S are mostly socials, to deliver a request in a way that boosts their ego and plays into their social mindset defeats the idea of them vs us and organizes the use of them as a tool rather than dismissing them as an annoyance.<br /><br />Doing so will keep your numbers up and make it possible for winning more often, and less infighting among the group, which is the bane of any raid group, no matter where it is. When people, whine cry fight, others leave.<br /><br />So as my old friend Churrasco Thomas used to say, "if you can't beat 'em, sweet talk 'em." it just may work better than this massive see who "wins" Raid Leader and who gets to kick who first...That really kind of defeats the purpose of Wintergrasp, especially since people are doing what is 'intended' regardless of how stupid the intent may be.Choky Heimlichnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-26544547939753771182010-11-05T14:50:54.279+01:002010-11-05T14:50:54.279+01:00Speaking as a manager and former naval officer I a...Speaking as a manager and former naval officer I agree with this 100%.<br /><br />Even if a leader is wrong in one particular instance... calling them out on it publically can do far more damage than just following the order. A flawed plan that everyone follows is better than a perfect plan that noone follows.<br /><br />A good leader is open to critizism when given privately. If you go to them with a solution to go with the critizism you will almost always raise yourself in his/her estimation as well. <br /><br />There is nothing more a leader values than a good subordinate that can think for themselves.cheeze whizznoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1461700565722278823.post-84443885604306665772010-11-05T14:25:54.477+01:002010-11-05T14:25:54.477+01:00Leadership is a very tenous thing and can be under...Leadership is a very tenous thing and can be undermined easily if the opposition works hard enough to discredit it. How could a colony, full of british troops overthrow, at that time, the world's greatest super power? It convinced everyone the british empire was evil, which was easily done with all the laws favoring british goods at the expense of colonial trade, and it found another benefactor willing to help them in sedition - France.<br /><br />Gevlon's philosophy on leadership certainly has some truths in it but anyone trying to extrapolate it to real life should be careful. He can maninpulate WG because he uses the small number of game mechanics to do so - flying into WG to avoid zone in, etc, which allows him to be auto selected raid leader.<br /><br />Real life is WAY different and the hold on leadership more tenuous and the crowd more fickle. Humans are highly complex and adaptable, if we weren't we still be picking fleas out of each other's hair and trying to figure out how to make fire. Given enough pressure the M&S will do anything to overthrow an oppressive albeit intelligent leadership. And if overthrow isn't possible, the M&S will sabotage the leadership out of spite.<br /><br />A leader must find the balance between a carrot and a stick and sometimes that isn't enough if there is another "goblin" who wants his power.<br /><br />Gevlon freely admits he can't control the AH and its foolish to try - too much competition (other goblins) and too many M&S sabotaging markets with their "I farmed for free" mentality. Well what happens at the AH can also happen in the "leadership game". You can get outbid on leadership by fellow goblins and the M&S can undermine you.<br /><br />I see the kernel of truth in Gevlon's philosophys but when I start reading how people simplistically adapt them to real life I start to get worried. I believe that behind every great revolution and upheaval there was a "goblin" who thought his rule and ideas were perfect absolute and therefore untouchable/undefeatable.Campitornoreply@blogger.com